????上個月，當我審視史蒂夫?鮑爾默第無數次的微軟(Microsoft)重組計劃時（這應該還只是上個月的事吧？），我就注意到，重組工作的一大關鍵缺失就是領導層。沒有喬布斯操刀的蘋果（Apple）重組絕不會獲得成功。重組需要的是一個懂得企業文化，敢于大刀闊斧，推行有效做法，贏得員工尊重的人。

????當然，微軟并不是沒有這樣的人，但從普遍看法以及此人言論來看，比爾?蓋茨根本不感興趣。

????那么，誰能管好微軟？讓我們先從那些被反復提起的人談起。首先就是如今已成為其他機構領導者的前微軟高管們。保羅?馬里茨曾任VMware CEO，現經營一家名為Pivotal的公司。史蒂夫?辛諾夫斯基在學術界轉了一圈后，最近簽約受雇于安德森-霍羅維茨風險投資公司（Andreessen Horowitz）。杰夫?萊克斯正在管理著比爾與美琳達?蓋茨基金會（Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation）。我把這幾人都排除在外了。他們曾在不同時代分管微軟的某些業務，而如今微軟需要的是文化復興。他們與輝煌一時的舊微軟聯系緊密。（作為一位問題創始人，喬布斯缺場蘋果公司大部分的低谷期；可以說，他在的時候幾乎都是蘋果公司最好的時候。）

????當然，人們也提到了一些現任微軟高管的名字。托尼?貝茨是這個名單中可信度最高的。此人就職于思科（Cisco）期間就是一位名副其實的技術專家和高管，曾經主導了Skype的復興，Skype被微軟收購后這幾年他也一直留任。貝茨被視為外部人士，但他從未管理過像微軟這么大規模和業務這么廣泛的公司。朱莉?拉爾森-格林和薩蒂亞?納德拉是擔任要職的微軟高管。她們合起來已在微軟服務41年，似乎不太適合迎接未來的挑戰。下一位。

????預測哪些外部人士是真正有趣的事。假如微軟收購了馬克?貝尼奧夫和杰夫?貝佐斯的公司，這兩人將是令人振奮的選擇。但別指望這個。有一位微軟的老人推薦了一名準外部人士：Yammer公司CEO大衛?薩克斯——貝寶（PayPal）圈子里的一員。這是個好主意，但沒有任何證據顯示創業者薩克斯能夠應對得了管理這么龐大的一個機構所需要面對的繁縟官僚噩夢。

????那么，誰是那位擁有軟硬件實力以及全球多元化組織管理經驗的人才？以及擁有成功管理技術專才和銷售人員的經驗？此人就是現年62歲、剛從IBM退休的前任CEO彭明盛。不妨考慮一下。彭明盛一手打造了被稱為“智慧的地球”(Smarter Planet)的市場營銷策略，將IBM全部業務融入單一銷售理念之下，獲得了空前成功。他加速了IBM向軟件的轉型，其中接納Linux開源軟件平臺的行動尤為引人矚目。這個舉動激怒了微軟。外部CEO需要擁有怎樣更好的資歷才能讓彭明盛相形見絀？??

????When I reviewed Steve Ballmer's umpteenth structural reorganization of Microsoft last month -- was it only last month? -- I noted that the key missing ingredient to making the construct work was leadership. A re-jiggered Apple without Steve Jobs doing the jiggering never would have been successful. It took the man who understood the culture of the organization, was willing to make the painful cuts as well as to promote what was working, and who commanded the respect of the employees, to succeed at Apple.

????Such a man exists for Microsoft (MSFT), of course, but according to conventional wisdom as well as comments the man has made, Bill Gates simply isn't interested.

????So who could run Microsoft? Let's start with the names being tossed about. The first bunch is ex-Microsoft executives who lead other organizations. Paul Maritz was CEO of VMware (VMW) and currently runs a company called Pivotal. Steve Sinofsky has been kicking around academia and recently signed on for a stint with Andreessen Horowitz. Jeff Raikes runs the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. I'd rule all of them out. They ran portions of Microsoft, an organization that needs a cultural re-boot, in other eras. They are too tied to the old Microsoft, despite that old Microsoft having been in its glory days. (As a problematic founder, Jobs missed most of Apple's (AAPL) decline; he arguably was around only for all but its best days.)

????There's a current crop of Microsoft names being mentioned too. Tony Bates is the most credible of this list. A legitimate technologist and manager from his Cisco (CSCO) days, he presided over Skype's rejuvenation and has stuck around for a couple of years at Microsoft. Bates counts as an outsider, but he hasn't run anything nearly the size and scope of Microsoft. Julie Larson-Green and Satya Nadella are top Microsoft executives in important roles. They have 41 years of Microsoft experience between them, and that just won't cut it for the future. Next.

????The real fun is in predicting outsiders. Marc Benioff and Jeff Bezos would be inspired choices if Microsoft were to buy their companies. Don't count on it. An ex-Microsoftie suggests a quasi-outsider, Yammer CEO David Sacks, a card-carrying member of the PayPal mafia. It's a fine idea, but for the absence of any evidence the entrepreneurial Sacks could handle the bureaucratic nightmare of running such massive organization.

????So who is the executive with software and hardware chops and the experience with fractious, global, diverse organizations? An executive with a proven track record managing technologists and sales people? That person, surprisingly, is 62-year-old Sam Palmisano, the recently retired CEO of IBM (IBM). Think about it. Palmisano presided over the stunningly successful marketing gambit called "Smarter Planet," a campaign that unified all of IBM behind a single sales concept. He accelerated IBM's move into software, notably emphasizing the company's embrace of the Linux open-source software platform. That's a move that infuriated Microsoft. What better credentials could an outsider CEO have than having humiliated and beaten his new charges?