????奧巴馬（Barack Obama）去年11月的大選中輕松獲勝。上周他又在達成財政懸崖協議的過程中讓共和黨大敗而歸，并控制了本應由共和黨掌握的眾議院。現在，對腦門上似乎都印著“失敗”二字而且公眾支持率仍在下降的共和黨議員們來說，可以期盼的就是在即將到來的一系列不受歡迎的議會爭奪戰中能夠技高一籌。

????對奧巴馬來說，成功連任后有一點已經不言而喻：那就是這位在2008年扮演和平使者的政治人物已經成了一名技巧高超的游擊隊員。如果說比爾?克林頓的戰術遺產是通過竊取對手的點子來解除其武裝，比如福利改革、“個人責任”和削減支出，奧巴馬跟共和黨交鋒的戰術遺產可能就是分而治之，逐個擊破。

????共和黨人一度最為善于抓住并利用敵人的弱點。而在奧巴馬治下，作為李?艾特沃特美國政治家，以善于攻擊對方著稱——譯注）的弟子，這些滿嘴《孫子兵法》的共和黨人遇到了對手。

????共和黨人勇敢地把財政懸崖協議視為一場勝利——99%的布什減稅政策得到了永久保留！但看看奧巴馬的戰果：一是福利改革方案獲得通過（盡管債務/GDP比例對經濟構成威脅，但現在該方案仍觸及到了那些看來“不太可能”的領域）；二是大選年的公開勝利，這表明稅收事關“公平”而非經濟增長；三是一個將共和黨一分為二的機會——其中一部分是擔心因為經濟一塌糊涂而背上罵名，另一部分則是怕失去保守派支持者。

????為奧巴馬在財政懸崖問題上獲勝埋下伏筆的是可能成為財政部長候選人的杰克?盧。2011年的債務上限磋商以稅收和軍費開支為主題，并未涉及福利改革，確保了共和黨人針對國防預算采取行動。在接下來的一系列財政危機中，情況也會如此，而首當其沖的就是下個月要探討的是否提高政府債務上限的問題。

????如果白宮不同意控制開支，共和黨就可以威脅讓政府關門大吉。但正如財政懸崖談判期間的民意調查結果以及1994年美國政府暫停運作時出現的情況一樣——共和黨會受到公眾的口誅筆伐。已經出現的情況是，奧巴馬的行為正像一個知道自己占了上風的總統——他告訴眾議院議長“開支不是問題”，同時表示，他希望通過限制減稅額度來增加稅收。

????Barack Obama handily won the November election. He cleaned the GOP's clock in last week's fiscal-cliff deal, seizing control of a supposedly Republican-controlled House. Now congressional Republicans, with a co-joined L on their foreheads and still leaking public support, can look forward to being out-maneuvered in an unwelcome string of upcoming legislative brawls.

????As President Obama approaches his second inaugural, one thing has become clear: The 2008 peacemaker politician has emerged as a skilled guerrilla warrior. If Bill Clinton's tactical legacy was disarming his opponents by stealing their ideas -- welfare reform, "personal responsibility," cutting spending -- Obama's may be his skill at dividing to conquer his Republican foes.

????Conservatives were once the reigning champs of honing in and exploiting an opponent's weakness. Under this President, Lee Atwater's Sun-Tzu quoting descendants have met their match.

????Republicans are gamely trying to spin the fiscal cliff deal as a victory -- 99% of the Bush tax cuts enshrined as permanent! But here's what Obama got: A pass on entitlement reform (which now recedes to the "unlikely" category even as debt-to-GDP ratios threaten the economy); the public triumph of his election-year narrative that taxes are about "fairness" not economic growth; and a chance to divide Republican ranks between those fearful of being blamed for economic chaos and those fearful of losing conservative supporters.

????The landmines of Obama's fiscal-cliff victory were planted by likely Treasury Secretary nominee Jack Lew -- in the 2011 debt ceiling deal that put taxes and military spending cuts on the table, and left entitlement reform off, thereby ensuring Republicans would be operating on the defense. And that's where they will be once again as we lurch to the next series of fiscal crises, starting with next month's debate over raising the nation's debt ceiling.

????Republicans can threaten to shut down the government if the White House doesn't agree to control spending. But just as polls showed during the fiscal cliff negotiations -- and during the 1994 government shutdown -- public blame likely will come crashing down on them. Already, Obama is acting like a president who knows he has the upper hand -- telling the House Speaker "spending isn't the problem" and suggesting he wants to raise more taxes by capping deductions.