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管理學大師諫言中美競爭

管理學大師諫言中美競爭

Anne VanderMey 2012年09月20日
管理學大師理查德?達維尼認為:如果美國不在商業領域努力上進,輸給中國就只是時間問題了。

??? 理查德?達維尼向美國的政客們傳達了一條信息:最好別擋著(商業發展)的道路。這位知名管理學教授任教于達特茅斯學院塔克商學院(Tuck School of Business,Dartmouth College),他認為政府應該減少開支,削弱官員權力。不過在談及商業的時候,達維尼卻認為政府應該發揮更大作用。他指出,來自中國的威脅不斷逼近,我們需要重新思考自由放任的經濟體系,甚至要審視自由市場本身。達維尼的新書《戰略資本主義:贏得資本家冷戰的新經濟戰略》即將出版之際接受《財富》(Fortune)記者安妮?范德梅耶采訪。

我們的資本主義模式哪里出了錯?

????許多我們堅信的教條都是扯淡,比如自由放任的經濟終將獲勝。另一個例子就是認為政府不能干預經濟,得到他們支持的都會失敗。中國政府就完全顛覆了這一看法,他們催生了勝利者。他們在太陽能和風力發電方面也會取得成功,就因為他們有很好的計劃安排。當你遇到一個精明的戰略資本家時,自由市場經濟反而是劣勢。只有對付法國那樣的笨蛋時,自由市場經濟才有勝機。

如何改進我們的系統呢?

????首先要平衡預算。這是米特?羅姆尼和保羅?瑞安的核心政策之一,我也很同意。但他們同時也提到要求中國向美國開放市場,我覺得這種想法幼稚得無以復加。根據我到中國訪問得來的印象,中國人不會做損害自己利益的事情。他們正在走向勝利,而且他們深知這一點。所以他們會尋求主導權,而不是合作。

美國怎樣才能和中國競爭呢?

????我們需要主動進攻。給你舉個例子。我覺得我們正處于第三次工業革命的前夜。大量的新技術正在美國孕育發展,其中包括三維打印和分子制造。這次制造業的革命會產生什么影響呢?雖然在美國無法產生很多新的就業機會,但會結束中國成為全球經濟和政治實力中心所依賴的商業模式。大規模制造業作為中國的就業引擎將逐步走向消亡。

????Richard D'Aveni has a message for American politicians: Get out of the way, sort of. The renowned management professor at Dartmouth College's Tuck School of Business says the government should spend less and give less power to elected officials. But when it comes to business, he also thinks the state should do a lot more. The looming threat posed by China requires rethinking our laissez-faire system, D'Aveni says, and even questioning the free market itself. Author of the forthcoming book, Strategic Capitalism: The New Economic Strategy for Winning the Capitalist Cold War, D'Aveni spoke with Fortune's Anne VanderMey about how the U.S. should adapt to compete with China's ascendant brand of state-sponsored capitalism, before China is the only superpower left. Edited excerpts:

What's wrong with our version of capitalism?

????A lot of things that we take for granted -- like that laissez-faire always wins -- are a lot of crap. Another example is the idea that government can't pick winners and losers. All they pick are losers. The Chinese government is proving the exact opposite. They're creating winners. And they're going to work that way for solar energy and wind energy technology because everything is coordinated. The free market has basically got a disadvantage when you're against a smart strategic capitalist. It's different when you're against a dumb one, you know, like France.

How do we fix the system?

????The first thing is to balance the budget. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan -- that's one of their centerpieces, and I agree with that. But they also talk about asking China to open up their market to the U.S. I think they're being incredibly na?ve, based on the trips I've made there -- that somehow the Chinese will do things against their interests. They're winning, and they know they're winning, and they're seeking hegemony. They're not seeking cooperation.

How does the U.S. compete with that?

????We need to go on the offensive. Let me give you an example. I think that we are on the verge of a third industrial revolution. There are all kinds of new technologies that are just on the verge of coming out in the United States, including 3-D printing and molecular manufacturing. How does that manufacturing revolution change things? It's not going to create a lot of jobs in the United States, but on the other hand, it's going to upend the business model that puts China at the center of global economic power and political power. China's employment engine, mass manufacturing, is going to die.

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