????某種商業(yè)模式一度曾大獲成功，但有朝一日，顛覆性技術和新商業(yè)模式開始崛起，取而代之，這就是百視達的遭遇。這種遭遇并非百視達的專利。所有的商業(yè)模式都有被“網飛”的風險。甚至網飛公司自己需要警惕被“網飛”的威脅。

????毫無疑問，對網飛公司商業(yè)模式最大的毀滅性威脅來自電影現(xiàn)在可以在線下載和觀賞。總有一天，用錄像帶和DVD來觀賞數(shù)字化視頻將成為一種過時的做法。現(xiàn)在，網飛已經開始試驗在線提供電影，并運用新的定價機制，以此大幅改進其商業(yè)模式。然而，網飛公司能避免自己被“網飛”掉的命運嗎？

????起初，網飛公司試著在現(xiàn)有的商業(yè)模式中捆綁流媒體，作為新產品推出。對希望通過郵件和在線流媒體兩種方式觀賞影片的用戶，公司推出了一個頗受歡迎的定價方案：每月只需花上9.99美元，就能享受無限量觀賞流媒體，以及每次郵寄一部DVD電影的服務。這個方案廣受歡迎，但對網飛公司來說，隨著成本日益上漲，它并不是個可持續(xù)運營的計劃。流媒體版權費用不斷上漲，提供流媒體服務所需的帶寬、基礎設施和服務支持等方面的成本也在增加，這些都使每月只需少許費用就能暢享流媒體和DVD郵寄租賃的服務變得難以為繼。如果沒有足夠現(xiàn)金購買熱門作品的流媒體版權，網飛公司就難以取悅喜歡流媒體的用戶。此外，顯而易見的是，對只愿意通過郵件低價觀影的人來說，要他們付更多的錢觀看實時流媒體電影肯定也無從談起。因此，采取折中措施在所難免。

????2011年7月，網飛向所有用戶宣布了一項大幅提價計劃。公司決定，終止9.99美元的捆綁定價服務，轉而將這兩項服務分拆，每項定價7.99美元。這意味著高達60%的漲價幅度。用戶立刻做出了反應，一時間滿是怒斥之聲，網絡上怨聲載道。同時超過100萬用戶選擇用腳投票，退訂了網飛的服務。網飛DVD郵寄租賃服務的商業(yè)模式運作大獲成功，但用到與郵寄服務捆綁的提供在線流媒體服務時卻不怎么管用了。

????結果，僅僅兩個月后，網飛公司就再次推出新舉措。2011年9月，公司決定分拆為兩個獨立的業(yè)務單元。其中運營在線流媒體業(yè)務的將繼續(xù)以Netflix為品牌開展經營，而另一個獨立業(yè)務單元將重新命名為Qwikster，運營公司傳統(tǒng)的DVD郵寄租賃服務。顯然，網飛公司明白，要在以DVD郵寄租賃服務為核心的商業(yè)模式下發(fā)展流媒體業(yè)務是行不通的。

????對諸位商界領袖來說，可從里德?哈斯汀經營網飛公司的經驗中汲取的最重要的教訓來自他簡明扼要但意味深長的肺腑之言：“回顧過去，我認識到，因為曾經的成功，我在不知不覺中變得驕傲自滿起來。”在一篇博客中，他繼續(xù)娓娓道來：“我對網飛最大的擔憂一直是，我們無法從DVD業(yè)務上的成功大步邁向流媒體業(yè)務上的成功。大多數(shù)在某種業(yè)務上成就不凡的企業(yè)——比如美國在線公司（AOL）的撥號上網服務，或者伯得思書店（Borders bookstores）——往往因為擔心開拓新業(yè)務有損原有業(yè)務，在人們需要的新鮮事物上就變得無所作為了（對我們來說新事物就是流媒體）。最終，這些企業(yè)意識到，在新事物上投入不足就會錯失良機，隨后開始拼命彌補，想要彌補錯誤，然而此時已經希望渺茫。企業(yè)很少會因發(fā)展太快而一敗涂地，它們倒是經常會因為裹足不前而壽終正寢。”

????然而，在流失了100多萬用戶，并且流失速度變得難以遏制后不到一個月，里德?哈斯汀又宣布，網飛再次改變決策，不會繼續(xù)推進獨立的Qwikster商業(yè)模式和業(yè)務。公司將繼續(xù)對在線業(yè)務和DVD郵寄租賃業(yè)務及兩者的定價實行打包經營。讓人驚訝的是，在他宣布該決定的講話中，他否定了自己所謂的“企業(yè)很少會因發(fā)展太快而一敗涂地”這一提法。他說：“發(fā)展迅速和發(fā)展太快并不是一回事。”耳聞目睹網飛自己陷入被“網飛”的境地真讓人痛心。

????我不知道這部大片的結局將會如何，但有一點是毋庸置疑的。商業(yè)模式已不再像過去那樣經得起時間考驗了。它們變得容易被“網飛”。任何人，任何企業(yè)都無法幸免，網飛自身也不例外。

????索爾?卡普蘭@skap5是商業(yè)創(chuàng)新工場（Business Innovation Factory）的創(chuàng)始人和主要推動者。

????譯者：清遠

????The Blockbuster story is about a business model that was successful until a disruptive technology and a new business model displaced it. The story isn't unique to Blockbuster. All business models are vulnerable to being netflixed. Even Netflix has to worry about being netflixed.

????Of course, the biggest threat of disruption to Netflix's business model comes from the ability to download or watch movies directly online. It is only a matter of time until both videocassettes and DVDs seem like an antiquated way to access digital video content. Netflix has been aggressively evolving its business model experimenting with new online movie offerings and pricing models. But can Netflix avoid being netflixed itself?

????Netflix initially tried to bundle streaming as a new product offering within its current business model. For customers that wanted to access movies through both the mail and online streaming it offered a popular pricing plan of unlimited streaming and one movie out by mail at a time for $9.99 a month. Many liked the offer but with increasing costs it wasn't a sustainable proposition for Netflix. The growing cost of streaming rights and the increasing costs for bandwidth, infrastructure and support to make streaming available were making a one low price per month for unlimited streaming and DVD delivery untenable for Netflix. Without the cash to gain streaming rights for popular content Netflix would not be able to please customers interested in streaming. And of course customers who were only interested in a low price mail delivery model had no interest in paying higher prices for real time movie streaming. Something had to give.

????Netflix announced a whopper of a price increase to all of its customers in July of 2011. They decided to get rid of the $9.99 bundled price plan and to separate the two offerings each priced individually at $7.99. It was a 60% price increase and customer reaction was immediate and angry. Blog posts and comments piled up across the Web in reaction and over a million customers voted with their feet by unsubscribing to the Netflix service. The business model that had worked so well for the DVD-by-mail service did not work well to deliver online streaming bundled with the mail service.

????It only took two months for Netflix's next move. In September of 2011 it decided to split up into two discreet business units. One for online streaming continuing to operate under the name Netflix and another independent business unit established under the new name Qwikster to operate the company's legacy DVD-by-mail service. It became clear to Netflix that trying to grow the streaming business within the core DVD-by-mail business model wouldn't work.

????The most important lesson for all leaders to take away from Reed Hastings' experience at Netflix is from his simple but profound admission, "In hindsight, I slid into arrogance based upon past success". Hastings goes on to say in a blog post, "My greatest fear at Netflix has been that we wouldn't make the leap from success in DVDs to success in streaming. Most companies that are great at something -- like AOL (AOL) dialup or Borders bookstores – do not become great at new things people want (streaming for us) because they are afraid to hurt their initial business. Eventually these companies realize their error of not focusing enough on the new thing, and then the company fights desperately and hopelessly to recover. Companies rarely die from moving too fast, and they frequently die from moving too slowly".

????And then less than a month later after losing over 1 million customers and the bleeding continuing Reed Hastings announced Netflix had changed its mind again and would not be going forward with a separate Qwikster business model and unit. They would continue to blend the online and DVD-by-mail offerings and pricing. He amazingly contradicted his comment that companies rarely die from moving too fast in his announcement saying, "There is a difference between moving quickly and moving too fast." It was painful to hear and to watch Netflix in the throws of being netflixed.

????I don't know how the movie will turn out but one thing is clear. Business models just don't last as long as they used to. They are all vulnerable to being netflixed. No one and no organization are immune, not even Netflix.

????Saul Kaplan @skap5 is the Founder and Chief Catalyst of the Business Innovation Factory.