臨危受命:標普新帥上任在即
????“多年來,道格的職業熱情及優秀的個性使他成為許多人的良師益友,”花旗銀行CEO吉恩?麥奎德在宣布彼得森離職的內部備忘錄中如是寫道。 ????花旗集團于1985年聘用了剛剛獲得沃頓商學院MBA學位的彼得森,然后他通過工作表現逐步獲得晉升,從阿根廷企業銀行部門客戶經理職位晉升到哥斯達黎加區域經理,此后又曾擔任烏拉圭區域經理。(在拉丁美洲工作期間,他結識了阿根廷籍的妻子,兩人育有兩個兒子。)1998年,花旗集團及旅行者集團(Travelers)合并,彼得森負責整合兩個集團各自的審計團隊。隨后,他于2001年被任命為合并后的集團首席審計師。 ????但是,彼得森是否能在標普獲得成功還需要拭目以待,這在很大程度上是因為信用評級行業正處于不斷變化之中。即使他能幫助修復標普公司的信譽,他仍須解決可能會拖延數年的政府調查及訴訟問題。這些訴訟的結果可能會極大地改變評級機構的行業格局以及它們因提供評級而要承擔的法律責任。 ????此外,監管機構及政界人士還正在設法清除相關法規中對使用評級的強制要求,這對于標普而言將是另一個改變游戲規則的舉措。規定銀行及機構投資者可持有以及持有多少固定收益證券的法規條例依賴于相應證券的信用評級。只有全國認定的評級組織(Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations)才能得到認可,其中穆迪(Moody's)、惠譽(Fitch)及標普更是占主導地位的全球性評級機構,這一身份賦予它們偽監管機構的地位,同時帶來了大量的客戶,因為他們必須用到各種信用評級。(《紐約時報》(New York Times)專欄作家托馬斯?弗里德曼接受美國公共廣播公司(PBS)著名新聞主持人吉姆?萊赫爾的采訪時曾說,,世界上有兩個超級大國——美國和穆迪,這句話后來廣為流傳。)即使標普卸任總裁德文?夏爾馬也對《財富》雜志稱,相關法規不應強制規定評級的使用。 ????將評級從監管系統中剔除會大大降低三大評級機構對華爾街的影響和權力,并可能損害它們的盈利能力。但諸如紐約大學斯特恩商學院(NYU's Stern School of Business)教授拉里?懷特等評級機構觀察人士指出,目前離這種大刀闊斧的改革還相當遙遠。 ????雖然彼得森接手標普后面臨的局面困難重重,但這次跳槽有望為他贏得非常豐厚的回報。麥格勞-希爾集團的現任CEO泰瑞?麥格勞已經是62歲的高齡,但集團目前尚未公布任何繼任方案——甚至連推測也沒有。彼得森有望成為其接班候選人。畢竟,他即將執掌該集團最賺錢的評級部門,而且曾在一家龐大的集團里擁有豐富的管理經驗。 ????此外,賈納對沖基金及安大略教師養老基金正在強烈要求麥格勞-希爾集團分拆成四個獨立的業務公司:教育、媒體、股票指數及信用評級。倘若標普按業務分拆成幾家獨立公司的話,彼得森將從備受尊重的部門主管一躍成為華爾街一家獨立、極具影響力而且盈利豐厚的公司的CEO。(麥格勞拒絕接受如此重大的改革方案。)如果于2000年從鄧白氏公司(Dun & Bradstreet)分拆出來的穆迪能提供些許借鑒的話,那么標普公司股東有望從分拆中獲益。穆迪首次公開募股(IPO)一年后,股價上漲近40%。五年之后,該股股價已經上漲至原來的三倍。穆迪高管持有的股票期權價值猛增,個個賺得盆滿缽溢。 ????譯:iDo98 |
????"Doug's enthusiasm and great nature have made him a mentor and friend to many over the years," Gene McQuade, the CEO of Citibank, wrote in an internal memo that was circulated announcing Peterson's departure. ????Citi hired Peterson in 1985, fresh from Wharton's MBA program, and he worked his way up from corporate banking role in Argentina to country manager in Costa Rica and then Uruguay. (He met his Argentinean wife, with whom he has two sons, while working in Latin America.) After Citicorp and Travelers merged in 1998, Peterson oversaw the integration of their respective audit teams. He was then appointed chief auditor of the combined group in 2001. ????But whether Peterson will be a success at S&P is still up for grabs, in large part because the business is in flux. Even if he can help repair S&P's credibility, he must work through investigations and lawsuits that could drag on for years. The results of these legal actions could greatly change the landscape for ratings agencies and their legal liabilities vis-a-vis ratings. ????Regulators and politicians are also working to take ratings out of regulations, which would be another game changer for S&P. Rules governing the fixed income securities that banks and institutional investors can hold, and in what amounts, rely on credit ratings. And the only ratings that count are those from Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations (NRSROs), of which Moody's, Fitch, and S&P are the dominant global firms, giving them a pseudo-regulatory role and a sea of customers who must use ratings. (New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman famously told Jim Lehrer that there were two superpowers in the world -- the United States and Moody's.) Even S&P's outgoing president Deven Sharma told Fortune that regulations should not mandate the use of ratings. ????Taking ratings out of the system could greatly decrease the power and influence that the big three ratings firms have over Wall Street, and possibly impair their earnings power. But that sort of mass overhaul still seems a long way off, points out ratings watchers like Larry White, a professor at NYU's Stern School of Business. ????While Peterson is inheriting a difficult situation at S&P, the move could prove very lucrative for him. No succession plan has been announced, or even speculated upon, for McGraw-Hill's 62-year-old CEO Terry McGraw. It is possible that Peterson would be a possible successor. After all, he would be running the company's most lucrative division, and has a broad array of managerial experience at a massive organization. ????Moreover, Jana and Ontario Teachers are pushing for a break up of McGraw-Hill into four separate businesses: education, media, indexes, and ratings. If S&P is spun off, Peterson would suddenly rise from respected division head to the chief executive of a standalone, influential, and highly profitable Wall Street firm. (McGraw has balked at the idea of so drastic a move.) If Moody's, which was spun out of Dun & Bradstreet in 2000, is any indication, S&P shareholders could stand to reap the benefits of a split. Moody's shares rose nearly 40% a year after their initial public offering. Five years later, the stock had tripled. The value of executive stock options soared, enriching executives. |