????公開市場一片恐慌。全球各大股市紛紛暴跌，投資者不加區分地大舉拋售，高質量證券也未能幸免，跨市場相關性正趨近于1，金價屢創新高，問題顯然相當嚴重。或許更大的問題在于：沒有什么方案能輕易解決問題。第三輪量化寬松（QE3）或者其他向市場注入更多流動性的政府政策很可能無法帶來多大幫助，因為這次危機并非缺乏流動性所致，與企業或個人資產負債表也沒有多大關系。其根源在于：人們對政府制定合理、長期且符合經濟需要的改革政策的能力持懷疑態度。至少就近期而言，宏觀經濟背景充其量只能說是“不景氣”。

????盡管經濟不確定性很可能會使消費者在支出方面更加謹慎，但美國個人的資產負債情況相當不錯，可以說很長時間以來都沒這么好過了。雖然就業問題仍然很嚴重，失業率維持在令人無法接受的高位，但消費市場仍然蘊含著巨大的消費潛力。只要能給消費者帶來與眾不同的體驗，使其生活更加便利并能提供極佳的價值，這樣的產品和服務仍然能大獲成功。此外，由于2008年金融危機后，企業紛紛執行更加保守的財務政策，大公司手中的現金儲備之多也是前所未見。它們當然不會拿著賬本四處炫耀，作為精明而富有經驗的買家，這些公司現在擁有充裕資金，可用于收購產品、服務或企業。

????對創業早期的公司來說，這意味著融資環境發生了何種變化呢？從原則上來說，不確定性對籌資不利，但這也并不意味著融資窗口已經關閉。【廣和投資（Union Square Ventures）合伙人——譯注】阿爾伯特?韋格納上周發表的一篇文章談及該話題，他指出，有意融資的公司應該盡快達成協議，不要為了估值問題而斤斤計較。要想安然挺過市場動蕩，能夠拿到手的資金至關重要，這遠比在估值上錙銖必較，非要多爭取幾個美元更重要。選擇合適的投資伙伴終究遠比估值多少更重要，這一邏輯永遠成立。因此，對想要融資的企業來說，我的建議與阿爾伯特所見略同：盡快完成融資，嘗試儲備18-24個月運營所需的資金。在制定運營計劃的時候，還應該確保一些“彈性”，即市場需求、宏觀經濟環境和融資條件發生變化的時候，應該要有能力增加或削減開支。保持靈活性和敏捷性在任何時候都是值得追求的目標，但在經濟形勢動蕩時尤為重要。

????不過，最重要的是：繼續執行公司的計劃。要記住，打造一家公司需要三種活動：運營、投資與融資。在創業之初，需要投入于上述公式中的融資環節的時間非常多，這是合情合理的：沒有充足的資金，就沒有公司可言，正因為此，創業公司的首席執行官（CEO）的頭等大事就是確保公司不會耗盡資金。可是，一旦融資問題盡可能好地得到解決，運營和投資決定就成了成功關鍵。如何締造企業架構，使其形成規模？側重于哪些市場和顧客？企業應當扮演何種角色？何時著手？企業的真正價值最終還是建立于這些決定之上，融資只不過是使它們得以實現的前提。

????總而言之：確保擁有充裕的財務資源以實現關鍵的運營目標，并在計劃中留下一些彈性空間，以便應對惡劣的融資環境。做好這些工作后，繼續專注于你最擅長的事情：打造自己的公司。能控制的事務就要控制好，但不能過于焦慮，試圖面面俱到。避免外界干擾，專注于核心目標。然后就是執行、執行、再執行。因為即使是在動蕩年月，業務表現可期的企業仍然能獲得豐厚回報。你要做的正是全力以赴，使自己的公司成為其中一員。

????本文作者Roger Ehrenberg是風投公司IA Ventures的創始人，他的博客地址是InformationArbitrage.com。

????譯 小宇

????The public markets are in panic. Global exchanges are getting crushed, with high-quality issues getting sold along with weaker securities. Cross-market correlations are trending towards 1. Gold is hitting new highs. This is not a pretty picture. And perhaps even worse, there are no easy solutions. "QE3" or other Government-sponsored measures to flood the market with liquidity are unlikely to provide much help, as this isn't a crisis driven by illiquidity or even corporate or personal balance sheets: It's about a fundamental lack of confidence in governments' ability to enact sensible, long-term, needed reforms. At least in the near term, the macroeconomic backdrop is dismal at best.

????However, while economic uncertainty will likely make consumers more careful with their spending, personal balance sheets are in a better place than they've been in quite some time. And even with unemployment at lousy and unacceptable levels, there is tremendous spending power across the consumer landscape. Products and services that provide consumers with differentiated experiences, make life easier and offer excellent value will still be successful. Further, large corporations are sitting on more cash than ever, having employed more conservative financial policies since the credit scare of 2008. This doesn't mean they're flashing around their checkbooks, but that they are smart and savvy buyers with money to spend on products, services - and companies.

????What does this mean for the early-stage financing environment? Uncertainty as a rule isn't good for raising money, but it doesn't mean the financing window is shut, either. Albert Wegner raised this very issue in a post last week, noting that if a company is in fund-raising mode, it should get its deal done ASAP and not get cute by optimizing for valuation. Available runway is key to weather market uncertainty, and this is far more important than trying to squeeze the last dollar out of valuation. And is always the case, getting the right investment partner is far more important than valuation, anyway. So for those in financing mode, my advice would closely reflect that of Albert: get it done, and try to sock away 18-24 months of runway. Also make sure that you have some "flex" in your projections, with an ability to expand and contract spending based upon market demand, macroeconomic environment and financing conditions. Remaining flexible and nimble should always be the goal but especially in periods of uncertainty.

????But most of all, continue to execute your plan. Remember, there are three activities that make up a business: Operating; Investing; and Financing. In early-stage venture, an inordinate amount of time is spent on the Financing piece of the equation, and for good reason: with inadequate financing there is no company, which is why the start-up CEOs #1 job is not to run out of money. But once this issue is addressed as best it can be, Operating and Investing decisions need to carry the day. How the business is being built to scale. Which markets and customers are being prioritized. Which roles are being filled, and when. These are the decisions that ultimately build real value: the Financing decisions are merely the enabler.

????So let's be clear: Make sure you've got enough financial resources to hit key operational milestones with some flexibility in your plans to deal with lousy financing conditions. But then continue to do what you do best: build your business. Control what you can control but let go of generalized anxiety. Block out the noise. Maintain your laser focus. And execute, execute, execute. Because even in uncertain times those whose business performance demonstrates predictability get handsomely rewarded. Just work to make sure that yours is one of those businesses.

????Roger Ehrenberg is founder of IA Ventures. He blogs at InformationArbitrage.com