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許多上班族愿意降薪25%以留住工作,但大多數老板不愿意

PAOLO CONFINO
2023-08-14

這表明上班族為了避免失業愿意付出巨大的代價。

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一項最新研究發現,許多員工寧愿接受降薪,也不愿被裁員。圖片來源:TOM WERNER—GETTY IMAGES

一項最新研究發現,雖然上班族為了避免失業愿意大幅降薪,但公司在裁員之前幾乎從未向員工提出降薪。

美國國家經濟研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)對最近被裁員的上班族調查發現,60%的人為了留住自己的工作愿意接受降薪5%。此外,如果能留住工作,超過一半上班族愿意降薪10%,而且有近三分之一接受降薪25%,這表明上班族為了避免失業愿意付出巨大的代價。

最令人震驚的或許是,幾乎沒有雇主會與面臨裁員的雇員討論這個話題。盡管員工愿意接受降薪,但只有不到3%的受訪者表示,雇主提出通過降薪換取保留他們的工作崗位。這種如此明顯的脫節,令研究人員難以理解。

他們寫道:“員工普遍愿意接受降薪,但雇主卻不愿意主動提出降薪,這令人更加迷惑。”

該論文稱,之前討論這個話題的學術論文,例如杜魯門·比利的《為何經濟衰退期間工資上漲》(Why Wages Rise in a Recession)一直認為,通過降薪避免被裁員是一種無效的方法,因為上班族不會接受降薪。克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)的高級研究經濟學家、研究作者之一帕維爾·克羅里庫斯基對《財富》雜志表示:“之前的研究留下了員工拒絕降薪的可能性。我認為我們的論文證明實際情況通常并非如此。上班族實際上愿意接受降薪。”

不同性別、教育程度和工作經驗的上班族都愿意接受降薪以留住工作,但有一個例外:黑人員工愿意接受降薪以避免被裁員的概率高約12%。克羅里庫斯基和他的研究合作伙伴、芝加哥大學布斯商學院(University of Chicago Booth School of Business)經濟學教授史蒂夫·J·戴維斯在論文中寫道,他們認為出現這種現象的原因是黑人上班族的貧困率更高,因此他們對可能影響財務狀況的失業“表現出更明顯的敏感性”。

更令人不解的是,上班族在面臨裁員時,即使許多人愿意以降薪換取留住工作,但他們幾乎從來不會主動與雇主交流這種觀點。在2,567名調查受訪者中,只有7人表示自己主動提出了這種想法。所有受訪者都在2018年9月至2019年7月期間在伊利諾伊州領取了失業保險補助。

員工愿意接受降薪,但雇主對此卻保持沉默,對于這種脫節,克羅里庫斯基和戴維斯衡量了如果老板和雇員能夠找到一種雙方都能接受的降薪方案,有多少人可以避免被裁員。根據他們目前的研究,如果向愿意接受降薪的員工提供他們認為可以接受的降薪方案,可避免28%的裁員。他們估計,這個數字可能高達35%,但要證明他們的評估,可能需要更深入地了解每一位受訪者被裁員的具體情況。克羅里庫斯基和戴維斯寫道,避免裁員“符合員工和雇主的利益”,因為公司依舊可以削減成本,而員工得以留住自己的工作,由此帶來的好處是顯而易見的。

既然有確鑿證據能證明通過員工降薪可避免約30%的裁員,這令人更加不解為什么會缺少對相關話題的交流。在被問到出現這種狀況的原因時,克羅里庫斯基表示這是因為雇主不愿意將人事決策的控制權交給員工。他說道:“雇主可以選擇裁撤哪些員工;但在降薪時他們就失去了這種主動權。”

在研究中,克羅里庫斯基和戴維斯詢問同意降薪但依舊被裁員的員工,他們認為雇主為什么沒有提供降薪這種選擇。有38.9%的受訪者回答“我不知道”,比例最高。

論文稱:“這個結果表明,許多失業者并不理解導致裁員的商業考量。”

然而,排在第二位的回答是:“它不可能避免我被裁員。”有36.3%的受訪者認為這是雇主并未提供降薪這種方案的原因,這表明并非所有裁員都是單純為了削減成本。有些裁員的原因是公司調整了業務重心,并希望將其認為不再重要的部門的員工,由其他部門的員工取而代之。克羅里庫斯基認可這種現象,并認為這是一個“重要問題”,但他拒絕進一步評論,因為它超出了該項研究的范圍。

員工認為雇主之所以沒有提出降薪的其他原因是出于對公司整體工作效率的考量。8%的受訪者提到了兩種潛在解釋:擔心最優秀的員工辭職,以及降薪會影響員工士氣。論文稱:“當員工因為自己的工資水平感覺受到羞辱或不當對待時,公司的工作效率會受到影響。”

在這種情況下,公司的觀點是,保留一批不開心的員工,而不是因為大規模裁員而承受長期人手不足的影響,只會讓公司的狀況更加惡化。論文中引用了輪胎制造商凡士通(Firestone)的例子。該公司宣布在即將簽署的工會合約中降低員工薪資,與此同時召回了1,400萬個輪胎。

克羅里庫斯基還表示,還有預測不開心和生產效率低下的員工這個實際問題。他說道:“如果能提前識別這些員工,最好的政策可能是將他們裁撤,并建議其他員工降薪。但如果無法提前識別或者無法有選擇性地辭退這類員工,那么大范圍裁員可能是最佳選擇。”

以降薪換取留住工作的現象之所以較為罕見,另外一個原因是它可能會開創先例:員工可能在業績強勁時要求漲薪,而且公司可能隨意要求降薪。克羅里庫斯基說道:“即使在形勢大好的時候,雇主是否也可以要求降薪?試圖降薪的公司可能不值得信任。”(財富中文網)

翻譯:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

一項最新研究發現,雖然上班族為了避免失業愿意大幅降薪,但公司在裁員之前幾乎從未向員工提出降薪。

美國國家經濟研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)對最近被裁員的上班族調查發現,60%的人為了留住自己的工作愿意接受降薪5%。此外,如果能留住工作,超過一半上班族愿意降薪10%,而且有近三分之一接受降薪25%,這表明上班族為了避免失業愿意付出巨大的代價。

最令人震驚的或許是,幾乎沒有雇主會與面臨裁員的雇員討論這個話題。盡管員工愿意接受降薪,但只有不到3%的受訪者表示,雇主提出通過降薪換取保留他們的工作崗位。這種如此明顯的脫節,令研究人員難以理解。

他們寫道:“員工普遍愿意接受降薪,但雇主卻不愿意主動提出降薪,這令人更加迷惑。”

該論文稱,之前討論這個話題的學術論文,例如杜魯門·比利的《為何經濟衰退期間工資上漲》(Why Wages Rise in a Recession)一直認為,通過降薪避免被裁員是一種無效的方法,因為上班族不會接受降薪。克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)的高級研究經濟學家、研究作者之一帕維爾·克羅里庫斯基對《財富》雜志表示:“之前的研究留下了員工拒絕降薪的可能性。我認為我們的論文證明實際情況通常并非如此。上班族實際上愿意接受降薪。”

不同性別、教育程度和工作經驗的上班族都愿意接受降薪以留住工作,但有一個例外:黑人員工愿意接受降薪以避免被裁員的概率高約12%。克羅里庫斯基和他的研究合作伙伴、芝加哥大學布斯商學院(University of Chicago Booth School of Business)經濟學教授史蒂夫·J·戴維斯在論文中寫道,他們認為出現這種現象的原因是黑人上班族的貧困率更高,因此他們對可能影響財務狀況的失業“表現出更明顯的敏感性”。

更令人不解的是,上班族在面臨裁員時,即使許多人愿意以降薪換取留住工作,但他們幾乎從來不會主動與雇主交流這種觀點。在2,567名調查受訪者中,只有7人表示自己主動提出了這種想法。所有受訪者都在2018年9月至2019年7月期間在伊利諾伊州領取了失業保險補助。

員工愿意接受降薪,但雇主對此卻保持沉默,對于這種脫節,克羅里庫斯基和戴維斯衡量了如果老板和雇員能夠找到一種雙方都能接受的降薪方案,有多少人可以避免被裁員。根據他們目前的研究,如果向愿意接受降薪的員工提供他們認為可以接受的降薪方案,可避免28%的裁員。他們估計,這個數字可能高達35%,但要證明他們的評估,可能需要更深入地了解每一位受訪者被裁員的具體情況。克羅里庫斯基和戴維斯寫道,避免裁員“符合員工和雇主的利益”,因為公司依舊可以削減成本,而員工得以留住自己的工作,由此帶來的好處是顯而易見的。

既然有確鑿證據能證明通過員工降薪可避免約30%的裁員,這令人更加不解為什么會缺少對相關話題的交流。在被問到出現這種狀況的原因時,克羅里庫斯基表示這是因為雇主不愿意將人事決策的控制權交給員工。他說道:“雇主可以選擇裁撤哪些員工;但在降薪時他們就失去了這種主動權。”

在研究中,克羅里庫斯基和戴維斯詢問同意降薪但依舊被裁員的員工,他們認為雇主為什么沒有提供降薪這種選擇。有38.9%的受訪者回答“我不知道”,比例最高。

論文稱:“這個結果表明,許多失業者并不理解導致裁員的商業考量。”

然而,排在第二位的回答是:“它不可能避免我被裁員。”有36.3%的受訪者認為這是雇主并未提供降薪這種方案的原因,這表明并非所有裁員都是單純為了削減成本。有些裁員的原因是公司調整了業務重心,并希望將其認為不再重要的部門的員工,由其他部門的員工取而代之。克羅里庫斯基認可這種現象,并認為這是一個“重要問題”,但他拒絕進一步評論,因為它超出了該項研究的范圍。

員工認為雇主之所以沒有提出降薪的其他原因是出于對公司整體工作效率的考量。8%的受訪者提到了兩種潛在解釋:擔心最優秀的員工辭職,以及降薪會影響員工士氣。論文稱:“當員工因為自己的工資水平感覺受到羞辱或不當對待時,公司的工作效率會受到影響。”

在這種情況下,公司的觀點是,保留一批不開心的員工,而不是因為大規模裁員而承受長期人手不足的影響,只會讓公司的狀況更加惡化。論文中引用了輪胎制造商凡士通(Firestone)的例子。該公司宣布在即將簽署的工會合約中降低員工薪資,與此同時召回了1,400萬個輪胎。

克羅里庫斯基還表示,還有預測不開心和生產效率低下的員工這個實際問題。他說道:“如果能提前識別這些員工,最好的政策可能是將他們裁撤,并建議其他員工降薪。但如果無法提前識別或者無法有選擇性地辭退這類員工,那么大范圍裁員可能是最佳選擇。”

以降薪換取留住工作的現象之所以較為罕見,另外一個原因是它可能會開創先例:員工可能在業績強勁時要求漲薪,而且公司可能隨意要求降薪。克羅里庫斯基說道:“即使在形勢大好的時候,雇主是否也可以要求降薪?試圖降薪的公司可能不值得信任。”(財富中文網)

翻譯:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

Companies almost never offer employees pay cuts in the lead-up to layoffs, despite a willingness of workers to accept even deep reductions in wages to avoid losing their jobs, a new study finds.

The National Bureau of Economic Research survey of recently laid-off workers found that 60% would accept a pay cut of 5% to keep their jobs. Meanwhile, more than half would take a pay cut of 10% and nearly a third would accept a pay cut of 25% if it meant keeping their job, illustrating the lengths to which workers would go to avoid being unemployed.

Perhaps most shocking was the fact that virtually no employers even broached the subject with their employees facing a layoff. Fewer than 3% of respondents reported having been offered a salary reduction to save their job, even though they would have accepted one. The disconnect was so stark it even left the researchers stumped.

“Employer reluctance to offer wage cuts becomes more puzzling in the face of widespread worker willingness to accept them,” they write.

Previous scholarship on the topic, such as Truman Bewley’s book Why Wages Rise in a Recession, has always suggested pay cuts were an inefficient method to avoid layoffs because workers simply wouldn’t accept them, the paper says. “Previous research leaves open the possibility that workers would simply refuse these pay cuts,” Pawel Krolikowski, a senior research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, who coauthored the study, tells Fortune. “I think our paper says that’s often not the case. Workers would actually be quite willing to accept pay cuts.”

The willingness to accept lower pay in order to keep one’s job held true across gender, education levels, and experience—with one exception: Black employees were roughly 12% more likely to accept the salary reduction in lieu of a layoff. Krolikowski and his research partner Steven J. Davis, an economics professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, believe this is a function of higher poverty rates among Black workers, making them more likely to “exhibit greater sensitivity” to a possible job loss that could affect their finances, they write in the paper.

Even more confounding is that workers, when faced with the possibility of being laid off, almost never initiate a conversation about keeping their job in exchange for a lower salary, even though many report being open to the idea. Only seven of 2,567 people in the survey—all of whom collected unemployment insurance benefits in Illinois between September 2018 and July 2019—said they brought up the topic.

When faced with this disconnect between the willingness of workers to accept a pay cut and the reticence of employers to offer them, Krolikowski and Davis set out to measure how many layoffs could be averted if bosses and employees were able to find a pay cut that worked for both parties. Based on their current research, 28% of layoffs could be avoided just by offering a willing employee a pay cut they deemed acceptable. They estimate the number could be as high as 35%, but proving that definitively would have required a better understanding of the exact circumstances of each respondent’s layoff. Avoiding these layoffs would be in the “joint interest of worker and employer,” Krolikowski and Davis write, because the firm would still get to reduce cost, while the employee would keep their job—the benefits of which are obvious.

The hard evidence that almost 30% of layoffs could be avoided just by lowering an employee’s salary makes the almost total absence of these conversations even more baffling. When asked why this might be the case, Krolikowski posits it’s because employers are hesitant to cede control of personnel decisions to employees. “Employers can choose which workers to lay off; they can’t do that in the case of a pay cut,” he says.

As part of the research, Krolikowski and Davis asked the laid-off workers they surveyed who would have agreed to a pay cut why they thought their employer didn’t raise it as an option. The top answer with 38.9% of responses was, “I don’t know.”

“This result suggests that many job losers don’t understand the business considerations that led to their layoffs,” the paper states.

However, the second most common response, ”it would not have prevented my layoff,” which 36.3% of respondents selected as the reason they believed their employers didn’t offer wage reduction, illustrates the reality that not all layoffs are made for purely cost-cutting reasons. Some might occur because an organization has shifting priorities and wishes to replace workers from a division it no longer considers essential with headcount in another part of the firm. Krolikowski acknowledged this and called it an “important question” but declined to comment further because it was outside of the scope of the study.

The other reasons employees believed they weren’t offered pay cuts point to considerations about the firm’s overall productivity. Eight percent of respondents cited two potential explanations: fears that the best workers would quit and that lower salaries would undermine morale. “Productivity suffers when workers feel insulted or wrongly treated by their pay,” the paper states.

In this scenario, the thinking goes, the firm would be worse off with a host of disgruntled employees rather than being perpetually short-staffed as a result of mass layoffs. The paper cites a case study of the tire manufacturer Firestone, which involved a recall of 14 million tires that coincided with the announcement of impending wage cuts in an upcoming union contract.

There’s also the practical matter of predicting who the unhappy and unproductive workers would be, Krolikowski adds. “If these workers can be identified in advance, then the best policy might be to lay them off and propose a pay cut for others,” he says. “But if they can’t be identified in advance, or if it isn’t feasible to selectively fire these workers, then broad layoffs may be the best action.”

Another reason why cutting pay in exchange for jobs is so rare is that it could set a precedent: Employees might ask for raises when performance is strong, and firms might ask for pay cuts whenever they please. “Could they always come and say, I want a pay cut, even when times weren’t bad?” Krolikowski says. Those “firms seeking a pay cut might not be credible.”

財富中文網所刊載內容之知識產權為財富媒體知識產權有限公司及/或相關權利人專屬所有或持有。未經許可,禁止進行轉載、摘編、復制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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