凱茜·伍德受到眾多投資者的追捧,在中國(guó)也具有一定知名度,中國(guó)網(wǎng)友甚至給了她一個(gè)昵稱(chēng)——木頭姐。
由凱茜·伍德創(chuàng)始并擔(dān)任首席執(zhí)行官、首席信息官的科技公司ARK Invest素以主題交易型開(kāi)放式基金(ETFs)聞名。憑借從大盤(pán)低點(diǎn)獲得的巨大回報(bào)、頗具遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)的投資風(fēng)格和在推特上的號(hào)召力,65歲的她已躋身華爾街新貴。2020年,她操盤(pán)的旗艦ETF ARK Innovation飆升了近150%,吸引了巨額資金流入,并收獲了大批忠實(shí)的ARK信徒。
伍德認(rèn)為,她管理的基金近期大受歡迎,部分原因在于投資者們意識(shí)到疫情期間“變數(shù)不斷”,而Innovation則“一發(fā)沖天”。“他們知道投入得還不夠”,3月下旬的一個(gè)晚上,她在視頻里這樣告訴《財(cái)富》。
但最近的情況有些搖擺。由于科技股遭集體拋售,伍德的ETFs在2月創(chuàng)下歷史新高后,一度暴跌30%。她的旗艦策略今年幾乎毫無(wú)效果,引發(fā)了投資者的大量質(zhì)疑。
有些人覺(jué)得,她的“熱手效應(yīng)”可能會(huì)因基金的瘋狂表現(xiàn)而終結(jié);也有些人擔(dān)心,在人們普遍擔(dān)憂(yōu)股市泡沫加劇的大環(huán)境下,她的公司規(guī)模不斷膨脹,可能很難保持驚人的回報(bào)。晨星的分析師羅比·格林戈徳最近針對(duì)ARK Innovation ETF發(fā)表了一篇充滿(mǎn)質(zhì)疑、但有理有據(jù)的評(píng)論,批評(píng)該公司的“團(tuán)隊(duì)缺乏有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的分析師、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理松散、資產(chǎn)基礎(chǔ)臃腫,令人懷疑該基金的出色歷史業(yè)績(jī)能否持續(xù)”。
但這些質(zhì)疑之聲很難沖淡投資者對(duì)ARK的熱情。據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道,投資者最近又向ARK的兩只開(kāi)放式基金ARK Innovation和新的太空探索與創(chuàng)新基金ARKX注入了10億美元,令后者成為有史以來(lái)發(fā)行最成功的ETF之一。
至于“木頭姐”,她可沒(méi)有因小小的質(zhì)疑而失眠。事實(shí)上,她非常歡迎各種質(zhì)疑。
“有這么多人擔(dān)憂(yōu),我其實(shí)挺高興的,”因?yàn)檎缢3Uf(shuō)的,“最強(qiáng)勁的牛市正是建立在擔(dān)憂(yōu)之上。”
《財(cái)富》向伍德詢(xún)問(wèn)了2021年的投資策略,請(qǐng)她建議幾只應(yīng)該關(guān)注(和避開(kāi))的股票,供打算做長(zhǎng)線的投資者參考。此外,還談到了她打理的基金大起大落之際,她是如何保持冷靜的。
10只前景大好、值得投資的股票
伍德說(shuō)起話來(lái)不像華爾街常見(jiàn)的那些基金經(jīng)理。
作為一名虔誠(chéng)的基督徒,她相信“我們身處此地是為了繁衍與創(chuàng)造”,堅(jiān)稱(chēng)“以前投資都是為了未來(lái)和創(chuàng)新”。她說(shuō),她的使命就是引導(dǎo)華爾街將注意力重新投向具有前瞻性的宏觀戰(zhàn)略。
抱著這樣的世界觀,她不會(huì)因短期變化亂了陣腳。不過(guò),盡管近來(lái)形勢(shì)有所緩和,但通脹和美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率上升的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍為成長(zhǎng)型股票蒙上了一層不確定的陰影,而這一類(lèi)股票恰恰在伍德的投資組合中占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。有些投資者預(yù)計(jì),通脹率將升至更高水平,因?yàn)閿?shù)據(jù)顯示物價(jià)正在回升。但伍德對(duì)此并不太擔(dān)心。她認(rèn)為,“另一方面,回調(diào)速度會(huì)快得驚人。”
因此,伍德并沒(méi)有像華爾街的很多基金經(jīng)理那樣在2021年初轉(zhuǎn)向輪動(dòng)策略,而是波瀾不驚地以“低廉的底價(jià)”大筆購(gòu)入自己看中的一些股票。
那么,在整個(gè)2021年甚至更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間內(nèi),她看好哪些股票?Zoom(ZM, $329)、Teladoc(TDOC, $188)、Square(SQ, $258)、Exact Sciences(EXAS, $127)、Roku(ROKU, $375)和特斯拉(TSLA, $732)最近都上了伍德的清單。“我們可能會(huì)買(mǎi)入所有排名前十的股。”
不過(guò),在疫情即將結(jié)束之際購(gòu)入Zoom的股票是個(gè)令人不解的選擇。在由現(xiàn)場(chǎng)辦公到居家辦公的過(guò)渡期,這家公司及股票價(jià)格(尤其是其估值)實(shí)現(xiàn)了爆炸式增長(zhǎng)。華爾街現(xiàn)在擔(dān)心的是,隨著企業(yè)員工重新回到辦公室,Zoom將風(fēng)光不再。
但伍德的態(tài)度相當(dāng)堅(jiān)定:“我們認(rèn)為,經(jīng)歷了新冠疫情,大家都明白什么是生產(chǎn)力、什么是效率,Zoom的股票會(huì)成為一個(gè)非常理想的平臺(tái)股。”每股329美元,遠(yuǎn)期市盈率88,Zoom算不上廉價(jià)。但伍德相信,Zoom“真正的力量不在公司之內(nèi),而在公司之間,是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手微軟”及其Teams業(yè)務(wù)“無(wú)法比擬的”。
Teladoc是另一個(gè)新冠受益者,伍德認(rèn)為它將在后疫情時(shí)代的日常生活中繼續(xù)扮演重要角色。伍德指出,這家公司的股價(jià)最近“幾乎折半”,從2月份的每股近300美元跌至約190美元。盡管近來(lái)在市場(chǎng)上遭遇困境(并遭內(nèi)部人員拋售),伍德卻認(rèn)為“遠(yuǎn)程醫(yī)療將成為人工智能技術(shù)最大的受益者之一”。Teladoc尤其如此,因?yàn)椤俺瞬坏貌蝗メt(yī)院的情況,我覺(jué)得我們更多的時(shí)候會(huì)通過(guò)遠(yuǎn)程醫(yī)療獲取健康服務(wù)。”與此同時(shí),根據(jù)標(biāo)普全球的數(shù)據(jù),分析師預(yù)計(jì)Teladoc 2021年的營(yíng)收仍將增長(zhǎng)近82%。(但預(yù)計(jì)要到2023年才能實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利。)
當(dāng)然,伍德始終看好電動(dòng)汽車(chē)制造商特斯拉,認(rèn)為正是這家公司的股票使得ARK“多次登上頭條”。她說(shuō),她已經(jīng)趁最近特斯拉股價(jià)重挫的機(jī)會(huì)盡可能多地買(mǎi)入,因?yàn)橛性絹?lái)越多的華爾街公司相信,特斯拉將從拜登政府的氣候友好型基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施提案中受益。伍德也做出了樂(lè)觀預(yù)測(cè):ARK最近預(yù)計(jì),2025年特斯拉的股價(jià)將達(dá)3000美元,這一數(shù)字遠(yuǎn)超華爾街的整體預(yù)期。她相信,未來(lái)五年內(nèi),電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率將達(dá)82%。“這樣的預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)字可不常見(jiàn),”她說(shuō)。埃隆·馬斯克領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的這家公司的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率接近173,是ARK購(gòu)入的奢侈品。但華爾街預(yù)測(cè),特斯拉2021年的收入增長(zhǎng)有望超過(guò)56%。
伍德認(rèn)為,有一個(gè)領(lǐng)域受到了“最多的誤解和誤判”,那就是一向深得ARK青睞的基因工程。伍德看好這個(gè)行業(yè)是因?yàn)椤癉NA測(cè)序、人工智能、基因編輯、基因療法的融合”將帶來(lái)“疾病的治愈”。“我覺(jué)得分析師們不理解治愈的價(jià)值。”她特別例舉了“更成熟的”生物科技股Regeneron、Vertex、諾華和武田,稱(chēng)這些公司“正積極使用這些技術(shù),努力開(kāi)拓新世界”。在她提到的這幾家公司中,Regeneron的交易成本最低,遠(yuǎn)期市盈率約為11倍,遠(yuǎn)低于伍德其他雄心勃勃的投資組合。
雷區(qū)
伍德對(duì)近來(lái)在華爾街炙手可熱的周期性熱門(mén)領(lǐng)域向來(lái)沒(méi)興趣。
她認(rèn)為應(yīng)該避開(kāi)金融股和能源股(這兩個(gè)板塊今年以來(lái)分別上漲了19%和30%),因?yàn)椤拔覀兿嘈牛磥?lái)五年里,它們將是不確定因素最多、去中介化力度最大的行業(yè)”。她指出,銀行等金融股有可能受挫,“非接觸支付已變得舉足輕重,所有人都在用。在此大環(huán)境下,銀行會(huì)遭遇很多困難,所以我對(duì)這個(gè)行業(yè)非常謹(jǐn)慎。”
與此同時(shí),汽車(chē)行業(yè)也面臨著自身的阻力,向電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的轉(zhuǎn)型以及政府對(duì)氣候行動(dòng)的支持給傳統(tǒng)汽車(chē)生產(chǎn)商帶來(lái)了更大的壓力。伍德顯然青睞特斯拉這樣的公司,但她認(rèn)為,盡管越來(lái)越多的公司在嘗試電力驅(qū)動(dòng),著實(shí)“勇氣可嘉”,“其中一些公司會(huì)成功,但大多數(shù)不會(huì)。它們有的試圖在舊領(lǐng)域中鞏固地位、削減成本,最終被其他公司兼并,有的則早晚會(huì)破產(chǎn)。”
伍德會(huì)避開(kāi)哪些股票呢?在談到2021年不應(yīng)入手的股票時(shí),她點(diǎn)名英特爾(“未來(lái)五到十年里,它將被ARM和RISC-V取代,所以我不會(huì)入手。”)、因美納(“我覺(jué)得它失去了章法,不再積極削減成本,只一味地想榨取現(xiàn)金流。”)和通用汽車(chē)(“我可能不會(huì)購(gòu)買(mǎi)任何汽車(chē)股。”)。
相反,伍德關(guān)注的是“創(chuàng)新平臺(tái)”,比如DNA測(cè)序、機(jī)器人、能源存儲(chǔ)和交通、人工智能以及區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù),“它們現(xiàn)在勢(shì)不可擋。”
長(zhǎng)線投資
伍德表示,作為一名基金經(jīng)理,她在研究股票時(shí)通常將五年表現(xiàn)視為“最重要的變量”,因此當(dāng)然贊同長(zhǎng)線投資。“我們的五年預(yù)期不會(huì)因市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)而變。”
但更重要的是,伍德認(rèn)為自己管理的幾個(gè)ETFs最近下跌,甚至在3月一度進(jìn)入熊市,實(shí)乃好事。“所有這一切都增加了……我們的投資組合在未來(lái)五年的回報(bào)率,因此我們事實(shí)上很興奮。”
然而,彭博社的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,ARK旗艦基金的空頭頭寸(或押注)徘徊在10%,是標(biāo)普500的三倍多。“我知道有些人看到這個(gè)數(shù)字會(huì)說(shuō),‘你是在開(kāi)玩笑嗎?你讓我損失了35%’,”伍德說(shuō)。盡管如此,她還是建議追隨者“把眼光放長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)。無(wú)論對(duì)與錯(cuò),根據(jù)我們的研究,我們的旗艦組合有望在未來(lái)五年增長(zhǎng)三倍,對(duì)此,我們的信心絲毫沒(méi)有動(dòng)搖。”
作為一名主要靠高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)押注和大波動(dòng)投資組合獲取收益的超級(jí)明星科技股投資者,伍德的雄心卻令人驚訝。“你猜我最希望給別人留下的印象是什么?幫助人們解決退休問(wèn)題,幫他們過(guò)得更舒適。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
以上數(shù)據(jù)均截至2021年4月14日。
譯者:胡萌琦
凱茜·伍德受到眾多投資者的追捧,在中國(guó)也具有一定知名度,中國(guó)網(wǎng)友甚至給了她一個(gè)昵稱(chēng)——木頭姐。
由凱茜·伍德創(chuàng)始并擔(dān)任首席執(zhí)行官、首席信息官的科技公司ARK Invest素以主題交易型開(kāi)放式基金(ETFs)聞名。憑借從大盤(pán)低點(diǎn)獲得的巨大回報(bào)、頗具遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)的投資風(fēng)格和在推特上的號(hào)召力,65歲的她已躋身華爾街新貴。2020年,她操盤(pán)的旗艦ETF ARK Innovation飆升了近150%,吸引了巨額資金流入,并收獲了大批忠實(shí)的ARK信徒。
伍德認(rèn)為,她管理的基金近期大受歡迎,部分原因在于投資者們意識(shí)到疫情期間“變數(shù)不斷”,而Innovation則“一發(fā)沖天”。“他們知道投入得還不夠”,3月下旬的一個(gè)晚上,她在視頻里這樣告訴《財(cái)富》。
但最近的情況有些搖擺。由于科技股遭集體拋售,伍德的ETFs在2月創(chuàng)下歷史新高后,一度暴跌30%。她的旗艦策略今年幾乎毫無(wú)效果,引發(fā)了投資者的大量質(zhì)疑。
有些人覺(jué)得,她的“熱手效應(yīng)”可能會(huì)因基金的瘋狂表現(xiàn)而終結(jié);也有些人擔(dān)心,在人們普遍擔(dān)憂(yōu)股市泡沫加劇的大環(huán)境下,她的公司規(guī)模不斷膨脹,可能很難保持驚人的回報(bào)。晨星的分析師羅比·格林戈徳最近針對(duì)ARK Innovation ETF發(fā)表了一篇充滿(mǎn)質(zhì)疑、但有理有據(jù)的評(píng)論,批評(píng)該公司的“團(tuán)隊(duì)缺乏有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的分析師、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理松散、資產(chǎn)基礎(chǔ)臃腫,令人懷疑該基金的出色歷史業(yè)績(jī)能否持續(xù)”。
但這些質(zhì)疑之聲很難沖淡投資者對(duì)ARK的熱情。據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道,投資者最近又向ARK的兩只開(kāi)放式基金ARK Innovation和新的太空探索與創(chuàng)新基金ARKX注入了10億美元,令后者成為有史以來(lái)發(fā)行最成功的ETF之一。
至于“木頭姐”,她可沒(méi)有因小小的質(zhì)疑而失眠。事實(shí)上,她非常歡迎各種質(zhì)疑。
“有這么多人擔(dān)憂(yōu),我其實(shí)挺高興的,”因?yàn)檎缢3Uf(shuō)的,“最強(qiáng)勁的牛市正是建立在擔(dān)憂(yōu)之上。”
《財(cái)富》向伍德詢(xún)問(wèn)了2021年的投資策略,請(qǐng)她建議幾只應(yīng)該關(guān)注(和避開(kāi))的股票,供打算做長(zhǎng)線的投資者參考。此外,還談到了她打理的基金大起大落之際,她是如何保持冷靜的。
10只前景大好、值得投資的股票
伍德說(shuō)起話來(lái)不像華爾街常見(jiàn)的那些基金經(jīng)理。
作為一名虔誠(chéng)的基督徒,她相信“我們身處此地是為了繁衍與創(chuàng)造”,堅(jiān)稱(chēng)“以前投資都是為了未來(lái)和創(chuàng)新”。她說(shuō),她的使命就是引導(dǎo)華爾街將注意力重新投向具有前瞻性的宏觀戰(zhàn)略。
抱著這樣的世界觀,她不會(huì)因短期變化亂了陣腳。不過(guò),盡管近來(lái)形勢(shì)有所緩和,但通脹和美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率上升的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍為成長(zhǎng)型股票蒙上了一層不確定的陰影,而這一類(lèi)股票恰恰在伍德的投資組合中占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。有些投資者預(yù)計(jì),通脹率將升至更高水平,因?yàn)閿?shù)據(jù)顯示物價(jià)正在回升。但伍德對(duì)此并不太擔(dān)心。她認(rèn)為,“另一方面,回調(diào)速度會(huì)快得驚人。”
因此,伍德并沒(méi)有像華爾街的很多基金經(jīng)理那樣在2021年初轉(zhuǎn)向輪動(dòng)策略,而是波瀾不驚地以“低廉的底價(jià)”大筆購(gòu)入自己看中的一些股票。
那么,在整個(gè)2021年甚至更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間內(nèi),她看好哪些股票?Zoom(ZM, $329)、Teladoc(TDOC, $188)、Square(SQ, $258)、Exact Sciences(EXAS, $127)、Roku(ROKU, $375)和特斯拉(TSLA, $732)最近都上了伍德的清單。“我們可能會(huì)買(mǎi)入所有排名前十的股。”
不過(guò),在疫情即將結(jié)束之際購(gòu)入Zoom的股票是個(gè)令人不解的選擇。在由現(xiàn)場(chǎng)辦公到居家辦公的過(guò)渡期,這家公司及股票價(jià)格(尤其是其估值)實(shí)現(xiàn)了爆炸式增長(zhǎng)。華爾街現(xiàn)在擔(dān)心的是,隨著企業(yè)員工重新回到辦公室,Zoom將風(fēng)光不再。
但伍德的態(tài)度相當(dāng)堅(jiān)定:“我們認(rèn)為,經(jīng)歷了新冠疫情,大家都明白什么是生產(chǎn)力、什么是效率,Zoom的股票會(huì)成為一個(gè)非常理想的平臺(tái)股。”每股329美元,遠(yuǎn)期市盈率88,Zoom算不上廉價(jià)。但伍德相信,Zoom“真正的力量不在公司之內(nèi),而在公司之間,是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手微軟”及其Teams業(yè)務(wù)“無(wú)法比擬的”。
Teladoc是另一個(gè)新冠受益者,伍德認(rèn)為它將在后疫情時(shí)代的日常生活中繼續(xù)扮演重要角色。伍德指出,這家公司的股價(jià)最近“幾乎折半”,從2月份的每股近300美元跌至約190美元。盡管近來(lái)在市場(chǎng)上遭遇困境(并遭內(nèi)部人員拋售),伍德卻認(rèn)為“遠(yuǎn)程醫(yī)療將成為人工智能技術(shù)最大的受益者之一”。Teladoc尤其如此,因?yàn)椤俺瞬坏貌蝗メt(yī)院的情況,我覺(jué)得我們更多的時(shí)候會(huì)通過(guò)遠(yuǎn)程醫(yī)療獲取健康服務(wù)。”與此同時(shí),根據(jù)標(biāo)普全球的數(shù)據(jù),分析師預(yù)計(jì)Teladoc 2021年的營(yíng)收仍將增長(zhǎng)近82%。(但預(yù)計(jì)要到2023年才能實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利。)
當(dāng)然,伍德始終看好電動(dòng)汽車(chē)制造商特斯拉,認(rèn)為正是這家公司的股票使得ARK“多次登上頭條”。她說(shuō),她已經(jīng)趁最近特斯拉股價(jià)重挫的機(jī)會(huì)盡可能多地買(mǎi)入,因?yàn)橛性絹?lái)越多的華爾街公司相信,特斯拉將從拜登政府的氣候友好型基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施提案中受益。伍德也做出了樂(lè)觀預(yù)測(cè):ARK最近預(yù)計(jì),2025年特斯拉的股價(jià)將達(dá)3000美元,這一數(shù)字遠(yuǎn)超華爾街的整體預(yù)期。她相信,未來(lái)五年內(nèi),電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率將達(dá)82%。“這樣的預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)字可不常見(jiàn),”她說(shuō)。埃隆·馬斯克領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的這家公司的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率接近173,是ARK購(gòu)入的奢侈品。但華爾街預(yù)測(cè),特斯拉2021年的收入增長(zhǎng)有望超過(guò)56%。
伍德認(rèn)為,有一個(gè)領(lǐng)域受到了“最多的誤解和誤判”,那就是一向深得ARK青睞的基因工程。伍德看好這個(gè)行業(yè)是因?yàn)椤癉NA測(cè)序、人工智能、基因編輯、基因療法的融合”將帶來(lái)“疾病的治愈”。“我覺(jué)得分析師們不理解治愈的價(jià)值。”她特別例舉了“更成熟的”生物科技股Regeneron、Vertex、諾華和武田,稱(chēng)這些公司“正積極使用這些技術(shù),努力開(kāi)拓新世界”。在她提到的這幾家公司中,Regeneron的交易成本最低,遠(yuǎn)期市盈率約為11倍,遠(yuǎn)低于伍德其他雄心勃勃的投資組合。
雷區(qū)
伍德對(duì)近來(lái)在華爾街炙手可熱的周期性熱門(mén)領(lǐng)域向來(lái)沒(méi)興趣。
她認(rèn)為應(yīng)該避開(kāi)金融股和能源股(這兩個(gè)板塊今年以來(lái)分別上漲了19%和30%),因?yàn)椤拔覀兿嘈牛磥?lái)五年里,它們將是不確定因素最多、去中介化力度最大的行業(yè)”。她指出,銀行等金融股有可能受挫,“非接觸支付已變得舉足輕重,所有人都在用。在此大環(huán)境下,銀行會(huì)遭遇很多困難,所以我對(duì)這個(gè)行業(yè)非常謹(jǐn)慎。”
與此同時(shí),汽車(chē)行業(yè)也面臨著自身的阻力,向電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的轉(zhuǎn)型以及政府對(duì)氣候行動(dòng)的支持給傳統(tǒng)汽車(chē)生產(chǎn)商帶來(lái)了更大的壓力。伍德顯然青睞特斯拉這樣的公司,但她認(rèn)為,盡管越來(lái)越多的公司在嘗試電力驅(qū)動(dòng),著實(shí)“勇氣可嘉”,“其中一些公司會(huì)成功,但大多數(shù)不會(huì)。它們有的試圖在舊領(lǐng)域中鞏固地位、削減成本,最終被其他公司兼并,有的則早晚會(huì)破產(chǎn)。”
伍德會(huì)避開(kāi)哪些股票呢?在談到2021年不應(yīng)入手的股票時(shí),她點(diǎn)名英特爾(“未來(lái)五到十年里,它將被ARM和RISC-V取代,所以我不會(huì)入手。”)、因美納(“我覺(jué)得它失去了章法,不再積極削減成本,只一味地想榨取現(xiàn)金流。”)和通用汽車(chē)(“我可能不會(huì)購(gòu)買(mǎi)任何汽車(chē)股。”)。
相反,伍德關(guān)注的是“創(chuàng)新平臺(tái)”,比如DNA測(cè)序、機(jī)器人、能源存儲(chǔ)和交通、人工智能以及區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù),“它們現(xiàn)在勢(shì)不可擋。”
長(zhǎng)線投資
伍德表示,作為一名基金經(jīng)理,她在研究股票時(shí)通常將五年表現(xiàn)視為“最重要的變量”,因此當(dāng)然贊同長(zhǎng)線投資。“我們的五年預(yù)期不會(huì)因市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)而變。”
但更重要的是,伍德認(rèn)為自己管理的幾個(gè)ETFs最近下跌,甚至在3月一度進(jìn)入熊市,實(shí)乃好事。“所有這一切都增加了……我們的投資組合在未來(lái)五年的回報(bào)率,因此我們事實(shí)上很興奮。”
然而,彭博社的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,ARK旗艦基金的空頭頭寸(或押注)徘徊在10%,是標(biāo)普500的三倍多。“我知道有些人看到這個(gè)數(shù)字會(huì)說(shuō),‘你是在開(kāi)玩笑嗎?你讓我損失了35%’,”伍德說(shuō)。盡管如此,她還是建議追隨者“把眼光放長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)。無(wú)論對(duì)與錯(cuò),根據(jù)我們的研究,我們的旗艦組合有望在未來(lái)五年增長(zhǎng)三倍,對(duì)此,我們的信心絲毫沒(méi)有動(dòng)搖。”
作為一名主要靠高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)押注和大波動(dòng)投資組合獲取收益的超級(jí)明星科技股投資者,伍德的雄心卻令人驚訝。“你猜我最希望給別人留下的印象是什么?幫助人們解決退休問(wèn)題,幫他們過(guò)得更舒適。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
以上數(shù)據(jù)均截至2021年4月14日。
譯者:胡萌琦
It’s not hard to see why so many investors are eager to hitch their wagon to Cathie Wood.
The 65-year-old founder, CEO, and CIO of tech-focused firm ARK Invest, known for its themed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), has ascended to Wall Street royalty, thanks to ARK’s mighty returns from pandemic lows, future-focused investing style, and buzzy Twitter presence. In 2020, her flagship ETF, ARK Innovation, soared nearly 150%, garnering hefty inflows and enticing a devoted following of ARK believers.
Wood will tell you that her funds’ recent popularity is due, at least in part, to investors recognizing that the ground was “shifting underneath their feet” as innovation “exploded” during the pandemic—and “they knew they didn’t have enough exposure to it,” she told Fortune over video one evening in late March.
But recently things have been rockier. Wood’s ETFs tumbled as much as 30% at one point after hitting an all-time high in February as tech stocks sold off en masse. Her flagship strategy is now barely in the green for the year, and there are plenty of skeptics on the Street.
Some say her “hot hand” may burn out on the back of her funds’ monster performance; others worry her firm’s ballooning size may make it hard to keep notching such impressive returns amid concerns of a broader stock market bubble. Morningstar analyst Robby Greengold, meanwhile, recently dished out a highly skeptical, yet compelling, review of the ARK Innovation ETF, criticizing the firm’s “team of inexperienced analysts, go-with-your-gut risk management approach, and bloated asset base [that] raise doubts about whether this fund’s outstanding historical results can continue.”
But the naysayers are hardly cooling investor enthusiasm for ARK. Per Bloomberg, investors have recently poured another $1 billion into two of ARK’s ETFs: ARK Innovation and the new Space Exploration and Innovation fund, ARKX, which already boasts one of the most successful launches of an ETF ever.
As for Wood, she isn’t losing sleep over a little skepticism. In fact, she invites it.
“I’m actually glad there’s a wall of worry,” Wood declares. Because, as she often says, “the strongest bull markets are built on top of walls of worry.”
For the adventurous investor who’s in it for the long haul, Fortune asked Wood how she’s investing for 2021, what stocks investors should take a look at (and avoid), and how she’s keeping her cool as her funds take her—and her disciples—on a proverbial roller-coaster ride.
10 stocks for investing in the big picture
Wood doesn’t talk like most money managers you’ll encounter on the Street.
As an ardent Christian, she believes “we are here to procreate and to create” and argues that “investing used to be all about the future, creation.” Her mission, she has stated, is to direct Wall Street’s focus back to that forward-looking, big picture strategy.
That’s not a worldview that sweats the near-term stuff. But despite a reprieve in recent days, the risk of rising inflation and Treasury yields paints an uncertain picture for growth stocks, like those that dominate Wood’s portfolios. And some investors are still angling to position for higher inflation, as data is showing a pickup in prices. But Wood isn’t too concerned. She argues, “On the other side, the surprise is going to be how rapidly that unwinds.”
So instead of shifting into the rotation trade as many on the Street did in early 2021, Wood has been calmly snapping up some of her most-favored names “at bargain basement prices,” she says.
Among those stocks she’s bullish on throughout 2021 and beyond? Longtime ARK favorites Zoom (ZM, $329), Teladoc (TDOC, $188), Square (SQ, $258), Exact Sciences (EXAS, $127), Roku (ROKU, $375), and Tesla (TSLA, $732) have all been on Wood’s shopping list lately. “We’ll probably be buying all of our top 10” holdings, she says.
Coming out of the pandemic, Zoom Video Communications may seem like a quizzical stock pick. The company’s growth exploded during the transition to work from home, as has its stock price (and, more important, its valuation). The worry on Wall Street now is that Zoom’s day in the sun is likely over as businesses beckon employees back to the office. But Wood is remaining steadfast: “We think that because of the productivity and efficiencies we all learned about because of the coronavirus, that a stock like Zoom is going to be a very good platform stock,” she argues. At $329 a share with a hefty forward P/E of 88, Zoom isn’t necessarily a bargain. But Wood believes Zoom’s “real power out there is in not intracompany but intercompany, in a way that Microsoft,” a competitor with its Teams business, “cannot scale and do.”
Teladoc, meanwhile, is another COVID beneficiary that Wood thinks will continue to play a key role in our lives post-pandemic. Recently, the stock has been “almost cut in half,” Wood notes, falling from nearly $300 a share in February to trade at roughly $190. Despite its recent woes in the markets (and a bout of insider selling), Wood argues that “telemedicine, I think, is going to be one of the most important beneficiaries of artificial intelligence.” And Teladoc in particular should benefit, because “unless a person has to see a doctor [in person],” Wood says, “I think we’re going to see a lot more health care done through telemedicine.” Analysts, meanwhile, expect Teladoc to still grow revenues by nearly 82% in 2021, per S&P Global. (The company isn’t expected to turn a profit, however, until 2023.)
Of course, Wood is perpetually bullish on electric-vehicle maker Tesla, a stock she credits with putting ARK “in the headlines more than a number of times.” She says she’s been buying up as much Tesla as she can muster during its recent rout in the markets, as increasingly other Wall Street firms are betting Tesla will benefit from the Biden administration’s climate-friendly infrastructure proposal. And Wood has some bullish projections: ARK recently put a $3,000 price target on Tesla in 2025, far and away the headiest on the Street, and she believes unit growth of electric vehicles will compound at an 82% annualized rate over the next five years. “You’re not gonna see that forecast anywhere,” she claims. With a forward P/E of nearly 173, the Elon Musk–led firm is among the more expensive stocks in ARK’s chest. But the Street anticipates Tesla can grow revenues by more than 56% in 2021.
One space Wood thinks is the “most misunderstood and mis-priced”? Genomics, a long-favored area for ARK. Wood is bullish on the sector because “the convergence of DNA sequencing, artificial intelligence, and these gene-editing, gene therapies” will lead to “cures [for] disease,” she says. “I don’t think analysts understand how to price in cures,” Wood argues. She highlights “more mature” biotech stocks like Regeneron (REGN, $481), Vertex (VRTX, $217), Novartis (NVS, $87), and Takeda (TAK, $17), that “are using these technologies aggressively, as they are trying to move into the new world.” Among the bunch, Regeneron trades the most cheaply, at a forward P/E of roughly 11—far less expensive than many of Wood’s other high-flying picks.
The no-go list
True to form, Wood isn’t interested in many of the popular cyclical areas that the Street has recently taken a shine to.
She says to avoid financials and energy (the sectors are up 19% and 30%, respectively, year to date), because “we believe they are going to be the most disrupted and disintermediated during the next five years.” Financial stocks like banks may be in harm’s way, argues Wood, as “contactless payments have become very important. We’re seeing amazing adoption there in all demographics,” she notes. “Banks are going to have a lot of trouble in that environment, so I would be very careful of them.”
The auto sector, meanwhile, is facing its own headwinds as the shift toward electric vehicles and government support for climate action puts more pressure on traditional automakers. Wood obviously favors the likes of Tesla, but she argues that even though a growing list of companies are, “to their credit,” trying to go electric, “some of them will make it, but we think most will not. They’ll either be absorbed by other companies as they’re trying to consolidate their positions and cut costs in the old world, or we think they could actually go out of business.”
As for stocks she’d steer clear of? Wood singles out Intel (“[It will] be displaced by ARM and RISC-V during the next five to 10 years, so I wouldn’t bet on that one.”); Illumina (“I think it lost the plot. It stopped cutting costs aggressively and just wanted to milk the cash flow.”); and General Motors (“I’d probably not bet on any auto stock.”) as names not to shell out for in 2021.
Instead, Wood is focusing on “the innovation platforms,” she says—like DNA sequencing, robots, energy storage and vehicles, A.I., and blockchain technology: “There’s no stopping them now.”
The long game
And as a money manager who says she prizes a five-year time horizon as the “most important variable” she considers when examining a stock, Wood certainly subscribes to playing the long game: “Our forecasts in year five really don’t change based on volatility in the market,” she says.
But more than that, Wood views the recent selloff in her ETFs, which at one point dipped into bear market territory in March, as an outright blessing. “All that has done is increased…the rate of return our portfolios should deliver during the next five years, so we’re actually pretty excited.”
However, short interest (or bets against) on ARK’s flagship fund is hovering around 10%, over triple that of the S&P 500 broadly, per Bloomberg data. “I know some people will be looking at this and saying, ‘Are you kidding me? You just lost me 35%,’” Wood notes. Still, she asks of her followers, “keep your eye on the prize. Right or wrong, given our research, we expect our flagship portfolio to triple over the next five years, and we have not lost any confidence in that at all.”
As a superstar tech investor who makes her money largely from riskier bets and volatile portfolios, Wood has some rather surprising ambitions: “You know what I’d really love to be remembered for? Helping people with their retirements; helping people make their lives more comfortable,” she says.
All stock prices calculated as of April 14, 2021.