把隨身攜帶的行李放上飛機，是一個高強度的零和博弈性俄羅斯方塊游戲。有時，這個游戲的風險甚至大得荒謬。例如：2018年3月，在一架從達拉斯飛往洛杉磯的美國西南航空公司（Southwest Airlines）的航班上，對頭頂行李架的爭奪引發了一場互毆，駕駛員只得命令所有乘客離開飛機。

信不信由你，這種情況只會愈加嚴重。

隨身行李的問題在于，對旅客和運營商而言，現行的行李鼓勵機制和航空旅行及飛機的發展從根本上就不相匹配。飛機的設計考量中不包含讓所有乘客都攜帶行李，但鼓勵機制卻讓每個人都想這么做。

人們曾經沒有這樣旅行的習慣。但隨著航空公司開始在旅客頭上安裝大型行李架，并針對托運行李收取高昂價格，旅客已經在勸誘之下把物品放在了頭頂上方。如今，在空前擁擠的航班上，越來越多旅客發現自己的箱包被攔在門外，只能被扔到飛機的行李艙內。

隨身攜帶行李的熱潮開始于21世紀初。當時，越來越多的航空公司開始征收托運行李費，并安裝擱板式行李架。隨后，波音公司（和供應商Heath Tecna）在2010年推出了鉸鏈式行李架。在此之后，又有容量更大的行李架面世。

盡管新式行李架的容納空間遠超標準的擱板式行李架，但卻仍然沒有足夠的空間保障每一位旅客安放行李。

而新式行李架雖然可能減少了航空公司收取的托運行李費，卻讓關鍵的消費者——商務旅客感到滿意。

長期就職于商務航空領域的資深人士喬治·哈姆林表示：“商務旅客想要更大的行李架，他們不想托運行李。而幾乎所有航空公司的衣食父母都是商務旅客。”

為全球各地的航空公司提供客艙內飾咨詢的Tronos Aviation Consulting的高級管理人員加里·韋斯爾表示，更大的行李架也有助于乘客更快登機和下機，降低航班延遲。

他說：“美國的許多大型運營商都增加了鉸鏈式行李架，因為他們會（遭遇）延誤。”

不過購置新式行李架成本不菲。韋斯爾指出，升級或重新安裝更大的鉸鏈式行李架的價格高達每架飛機75萬至100萬美元。此外，鉸鏈式行李架擁有活動部件，這意味著更高的維護和修理費用及更大的重量。重量更大意味著燃料消耗也更多。

盡管新式行李架的構思在某種程度上是為了緩解旅客隨身攜帶的行李難以放置的狀況，但它們產生的后果卻恰恰相反。多年來，美國最大的航班空服人員聯盟空乘人員協會（Association of Flight Attendants）一直向航空公司施加壓力，減少旅客能隨身攜帶的箱包大小和數量，以“降低在飛機上受傷或引發沖突的風險”，該聯盟在官方網站上如是說。

更多旅客，更高費用

各航空公司在安裝鉸鏈式行李架的大約同時，也開始征收并提高托運行李的費用。美國的航空公司從21世紀初開始收取這一費用，以應對高昂的燃料成本，之后隨著2008年經濟蕭條，它又再次出現。托運行李費鼓勵乘客減少行李并將它們隨身攜帶，這加劇了頭頂行李架的擁擠程度。

當然，比起蕭條之前，如今乘坐飛機的旅客數量更多，運營商每趟航班的客座率也比以前高得多。專門從事國際旅游業研究的舊金山公司Atmosphere Research Group的總裁亨利·哈特維爾德表示，更多的乘客，就意味著更多的隨身行李。

然而，航空公司如今的單通道飛機日益增多，它們的頭頂空間更加逼仄。直到幾年前，一些國際航線上還幾乎都采用雙通道噴氣客機，它們有著大量的空間存放隨身行李。如今，航空公司可以通過波音（Boeing）737或空客（Airbus）A320帶著乘客跨越太平洋，更低的運營成本對航空公司的盈利大有幫助，但是對尋求節約行李費的乘客來說就不是那么友好了。

與此同時，2008年起燃油價格也出現跳水。然而，行李費卻只增不減，根據關注航空公司的投資分析師的數據，這項收費每年給行業帶來了數十億美元的收入。

盡管乘客討厭行李費，不過哈姆林對《財富》雜志表示：“華爾街似乎喜歡行李費等逐步增長的收入。”他們的理由很充分，美國航空公司不必為額外收費支付聯邦稅，這與機票不同，后者漲價的話，稅費也會增長。

行李位之爭的未來

諷刺的是，前文中大打出手的旅客乘坐的是西南航空公司達拉斯至洛杉磯的8號航班。這是美國大型運營商中唯一不收取行李托運費的公司，它提供了兩個包裹的免費托運額度。西南航空公司的發言人布萊恩·帕里什表示，對公司而言，更好的顧客體驗比行李費更重要。

西南航空這種特立獨行沒有影響公司的利潤，它仍然是美國盈利能力最強的運營商之一。自從20世紀70年代成立以來，西南航空是唯一避免了破產命運的美國大型航空公司。

無論怎樣，行李架在未來似乎會走向數字化。在2019年德國漢堡舉辦的航空內飾展（Aviation Interiors Show）上，空客展示了一個外部擁有指示燈的行李架，紅色代表已經裝滿，黃色代表接近裝滿，綠色代表空間充足。為波音和空客制造客艙內飾的Diehl Aviation也展示了一個可預訂的行李架原型。這種行李架可以讓乘客預約特定的頭頂空間用于存放行李。至于存放是否收費，則取決于航空公司。

兩款產品仍然在開發當中。韋斯爾表示，如果它們投入市場，航空公司是否存在需求還不得而知，因為它們無法幫助航空公司的核心用戶——商務旅客和其他常旅客。

韋斯爾說：“對和我一樣的旅客來說，我為什么要額外花錢去預定頭頂空間呢？我的身份可以讓我提早登機，那時還有很多空間可用。”

另外，分辨已經被預訂的頭頂空間，帶來更多的可能是煩擾而不是幫助。

最后，新式行李架可能會帶來更高的成本。韋斯爾說：“你加入了電子產品、燈光、電線，復雜的事物需要更多的維護費用。”

不過就像下降的航班一樣，未來會很快到來。在那之前，旅客還是會被建議少帶行李，并把隨身行李放到行李架上，尤其是帶輪子的。（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

Stowing carry-on luggage on airplanes is high-stress, zero-sum Tetris, sometimes with stakes perceived to be so high that they border on the absurd. Case in point: A March 2018 overhead bin battle sparked a fistfight on a Southwest Airlines flight from Dallas to Los Angeles, prompting the pilot to order every passenger off the plane.

And believe it or not, it could get worse.

The problem with carry-ons, for travelers and carriers alike, is that there’s a fundamental mismatch between modern baggage incentives and how air travel and airplanes have evolved. Planes were not designed for everyone to carry-on their bags, but the incentives make everyone want to.

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People didn’t used to travel this way. But with with the installation of big overhead bins and introduction of hefty fees for checking luggage, travelers have been coaxed to stow their stuff above. Now, on tighter-than-ever flights, an increasing amount of passengers are finding their bags getting gate-checked—and tossed into the fuselage's bowels, regardless.

The carry-on craze really started in the 2000s, when more and more airlines started charging for checked luggage, as well as installing first bigger shelf bins and then pivot or articulated bins, which Boeing (with supplier Heath Tecna) introduced in 2010. And even larger bins have been developed since then.

While the new bins are far roomier than standard shelf bins, there still is not enough space to guarantee stowage space for every passenger.

And the new hardware may have cut into airlines’checked luggage fees, but it keeps critical customers—business travelers—happy.

“Business travelers want and demand larger bins,” says George Hamlin, a longtime commercial aviation industry veteran. “They don’t want to check luggage, and your bread and butter for almost all airlines is the business traveler.”

Bigger bins also helped passengers get on and off airplanes quicker, reducing flight delays, says Gary Weissel, a managing officer at Tronos Aviation Consulting who consults with airlines around the world on cabin interiors.

“A lot of the major U.S. carriers added articulated overhead bins, because they were (experiencing) delays,” he says.

But buying new bins is costly. Upgrading or retrofitting an aircraft with larger pivot bins can cost $750,000 to $1 million per plane, Weissel says. Also, pivot bins have moving parts which means higher maintenance and repair costs and are heavier. More weight equals higher fuel consumption.

And though the new overhead bins were conceived in part to cut down carry-on aggravation for flight attendants, they've had the opposite effect. For years, the country's biggest cabin crew union, the Association of Flight Attendants, has pushed airlines to clamp down on the size and number of carry-on bags passengers can bring into the cabin, to "reduce risks of injury and conflict onboard the aircraft," the union says on its website.

More fliers, more fees

Around the same time airlines started installing articulated or pivot bins, they also instituted and increased checked luggage fees. Introduced by U.S. airlines in the 2000s to cope with high fuel costs, and then again with the 2008 recession, the new charges exacerbated the overhead baggage crunch by encouraging passengers to pack less and carry their belongings with them.

Of course, more people fly today than did before the recession, with carriers having become much better about filling as many seats as possible on each flight. And more passengers means more carry-ons, says Henry Harteveldt, president of the San Francisco-based Atmosphere Research Group, which specializes in the global travel industry.

But airlines are also flying more single-aisle airplanes these days, which have less overhead space. Until a few years ago, some international routes were almost exclusively flown by twin-aisle jetliners, which have plenty of room for carry-on luggage. Now airlines can ferry passengers across the Atlantic in a Boeing 737 or Airbus A320, whose lower operating costs are great for airlines' bottom lines, but not for travelers looking to save on baggage fees.

Meanwhile, the cost of oil has since plummeted since 2008. Baggage fees, however, have only increased, generating billions of dollars each year for the industry, according to investment analysts who focus on airlines.

While fliers hate the fees, “Wall Street seems to love idea of incremental revenues such as luggage fees,” Hamlin tells Fortune. And with good reason: U.S. airlines don’t pay federal taxes on additional fees, unlike a fare increase, which is taxed.

The future of in-flight baggage fights

Ironically for the punch-drunk passengers of Southwest Airlines Flight 8 from Dallas to L.A., the only major U.S. carrier that doesn't charge luggage fees is Southwest, which lets its guests check two bags for free. For Southwest, a better customer experience beats bag fees, says Brian Parrish, a spokesman for the airline.

The airline's iconoclasm has not hurt its bottom line. It remains one of the most profitable U.S. carriers. Since its founding in the 1970s, Southwest is the only major U.S. airline that avoided bankruptcy.

And for better or worse, it appears that bins may go digital in the future. At 2019's Aviation Interiors Show in Hamburg, Germany, Airbus showed off a bin with color-coded lights on the exterior: red for full, yellow for almost full, and green if there's plenty of room. Diehl Aviation, which makes cabin interiors for Boeing and Airbus, also had its bookable-bin prototype on display. The stowage bin allows fliers to reserve a specific overhead space for their carry-on. Whether it is free or for a fee would be up to the airline.

Both products are still in development. If they do become available, Weissel says, it is not clear that airlines will want them, because they don’t help airline’s core customers—business travelers and other frequent fliers.

“For somebody like me, why would I spend extra money to reserve overhead space, when my status lets me board early and there is still lots of space available?” Weissel says.

Also, sorting out reserved overhead space could be more hassle than helpful.

Lastly, the new bins would add even more costs. “You’re adding electronics, lights, wires, and complexity that is going to require more maintenance,” Weissel says.

But like a descending flight, the future will arrive soon enough. Until then, travelers are advised to pack less stuff and stow their carry-on luggage, wheels-first.