《自然氣候變化》雜志上發(fā)表的一篇研究報告稱，至本世紀末，如果找不到新的島嶼棲息地，七成王企鵝可能消失。

王企鵝生活在地球南大洋靠近南極洲的島嶼上，而全球變暖和氣候變化導致這里的海平面上升，冰川融化。

與其近親帝企鵝不同，王企鵝在沒有冰的島嶼上棲息繁衍。它們的棲息地不存在消失的危險，但它們的食物來源卻正在受到氣候變化的影響。

每年最溫暖的季節(jié)，王企鵝會游到310英里以外的海域覓食，但氣溫升高使它們賴以生存的魷魚、魚、蝦等海洋生物向更靠近南極的海域遷徙，從而會增加王企鵝覓食的距離。

這意味著王企鵝要把饑餓的幼崽留在棲息地，前往距離巢穴更遠的地方覓食。現(xiàn)在，企鵝幼崽要等待一周多時間，它們的父母才能帶回食物，而覓食距離延長，將威脅幼崽長成成年企鵝和進行繁殖的機會。

King penguins could see a 70% decrease in their population by the end of the century if they can’t find a new island habitat, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change.

The birds live in islands off of Antarctica in the Earth’s southern oceans, where global warming and climate change have led to rising sea levels and melting ice.

These penguins, unlike their emperor penguins relatives, live and breed on ice-free islands. Their homes aren’t in danger of melting away, but their source of food is being impacted by climate change.

King penguins swim as far as 310 miles to catch their food during the warmest part of the year, but rising temperatures will push the squid, fish, and krill they feed on closer to the South Pole, stretching the distance the birds would have to travel for their dinner.

This means the penguins are traveling farther and farther from their nests, and their hungry offspring, in order to hunt. Baby king penguins already wait more than a week for their parents to return with food, and lengthening the time they go hungry threatens their chances of making it to adulthood and reproducing.

法國休伯特·居里安跨學科研究院（Hubert Curien Multi-disciplinary Institute）的生態(tài)學家、該項報告的作者之一賽琳·勒伯赫告訴The Verge：“我們知道，王企鵝的數(shù)量會迅速減少。而它們的遭遇只是向我們揭開了生態(tài)系統(tǒng)變化的冰山一角。”

勒伯赫與研究團隊開發(fā)了一個模型，用于確定王企鵝生活的哪些島嶼將會受到氣溫上升的影響，哪些島嶼更適合王企鵝生存。之后，他們通過歷史和遺傳學數(shù)據(jù)對模型進行了驗證，重現(xiàn)了王企鵝在之前的氣候變化周期內的轉移情況。

模型顯示，至2100年，全世界近一半王企鵝預計將完全失去棲息地，它們大部分生活在克羅澤群島和愛德華王子群島。

意大利費拉拉大學（University of Ferrara）的進化生物學家、報告作者之一埃米利亞諾·特魯契告訴The Verge，生活在克羅澤群島的王企鵝未來需要游到435英里以外覓食。

特魯契說道：“未來它們要么遷移棲息地，要么消失。規(guī)模最大的王企鵝群體所生活的島嶼，未來將遠離食物來源。”

王企鵝喜歡在布滿卵石的沙灘上繁殖。而要找到這樣一座沒有冰的新棲息地卻并不容易。研究顯示，王企鵝必須遷移到數(shù)百甚至數(shù)千公里以外，還要與其他企鵝品種爭奪空間和食物。

雖然王企鵝數(shù)量減少70%聽起來非常嚴重，但芝加哥洛約拉大學（Loyola University Chicago）的進化生物學家珍妮·楊格告訴《紐約時報》，這只是保守估計。楊格并未參與此次研究。

在魚蝦等王企鵝的食物來源因為海洋變暖開始向南遷徙之前，過渡捕撈和氣候變化造成的海洋酸化已經對它們構成了威脅。科學家們表示，通過限制漁業(yè)和旅游業(yè)等措施，能夠將這方面的影響降到最低，但多數(shù)王企鵝的生存仍取決于人類對抗氣候變暖的努力。（財富中文網）

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

“We know that penguin populations will collapse soon,” study co-author Céline Le Bohec, an ecologist at the Hubert Curien Multi-disciplinary Institute in France, told The Verge. “They are showing us the tip of the iceberg of what is happening in the ecosystems.”

Le Bohec and the research team developed a model to determine which islands where king penguins live would become vulnerable as temperatures rise and which might become better-suited for the birds. Then they validated their model through historical and genetic data, recreating the movements of king penguins during previous periods of climate change.

Half of the world’s king penguins, who live on the Crozet and Prince Edward Islands, will lose their habitat completely by 2100, according to the researchers’ model.

Penguins in the Crozet Islands will have to swim 435 miles to feed, study co-author Emiliano Trucchi, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Ferrara in Italy, toldThe Verge.

“They will need to either move somewhere else or they will just disappear,” Trucchi said. “The largest colonies are on islands that will be too far from the source of food,”

Finding a new ice-free home with the sandy and pebbly beaches where king penguins like to breed is not easy. The search means the birds have to travel hundreds or thousands of miles and will put them in competition with other penguin species for space and food.

While a 70% loss in population sounds extreme, it’s probably a conservative estimate, Jane Younger, an evolutionary ecologist at Loyola University Chicago, who was not involved in the research, told the New York Times.

Even before the fish and krill that penguins feed on begin to move farther south as oceans get warmer, they are vulnerable to overfishing and acidification with climate change. Scientists say this impact can be minimized with restrictions on activities like fishing and tourism, but the survival of the majority of king penguins depends on humans combatting global warming, according to researchers.