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今后十年我們最缺什么?不是錢

如果數(shù)字工具可以提升效率,那為什么對它的更多使用卻似乎導(dǎo)致時間變少?

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疫情時代,時間匱乏現(xiàn)象可能是數(shù)字化工作環(huán)境產(chǎn)生的新副作用。就像Zoom倦怠一樣,之前沒有人能夠預(yù)料到,怎么能怨天尤人?當(dāng)一年前封鎖開始時,人們都以為在沒有通勤和辦公室的干擾之后,居家遠(yuǎn)程辦公時間會更多。

然而在居家辦公一年之后,大家都感到時間變少了。根據(jù)《哈佛商業(yè)評論》(Harvard Business Review)在今年2月的研究,開會時間增加了13%;56%的遠(yuǎn)程辦公者認(rèn)為工作需求增加;62%的受訪者表示,過去三個月一直在努力管理工作量?,F(xiàn)在工作日平均工作時間比疫情前延長了48分鐘。

如果數(shù)字工具可以提升效率,那為什么對它的更多使用卻似乎導(dǎo)致時間變少?

根本原因不是疫情危機(jī)暫時的影響,而是人們與工具關(guān)系產(chǎn)生的副產(chǎn)品。

自從20世紀(jì)90年代黑莓(BlackBerry)等便攜式收發(fā)電子郵件的設(shè)備問世,工作日工作時長平均增加了兩小時。伴隨著一種財富實(shí)際增長,人們在任何地方都能夠跟同事交流,不過這也要面臨另一種財富損失,就是時間。

在數(shù)字時代來臨之前,社會學(xué)家先驅(qū)就觀察到了該趨勢。1972年,丹尼爾?貝爾就寫道:“生產(chǎn)率較低時,時間相對便宜;生產(chǎn)率很高時,時間就變得相對昂貴。簡而言之,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長意味著時間稀缺性普遍增加?!?/p>

貝爾所說的生產(chǎn)力是指大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)獲得的物質(zhì)產(chǎn)品更加豐富。有幾十種牙膏可供選擇時,普通人即便愿意也沒有時間一一嘗試。不管多么草率,選擇某個品牌都要付出時間和精力。將該效應(yīng)乘以生活中每個大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)的物品,最終會得到總時間和注意力的總和。簡而言之,對于享受經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的人來說,經(jīng)濟(jì)的每一點(diǎn)增長都會產(chǎn)生增量成本。

時間貧困與服務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)

盡管時間匱乏是工業(yè)產(chǎn)品增加的副作用,但它也可能變成服務(wù)領(lǐng)域增長的制約因素。

批量生產(chǎn)剪刀和梳子幾乎不需要人投入什么關(guān)注,然而理發(fā)仍然需要熟練工人持續(xù)付出,也需要顧客不間斷地參與。不管美發(fā)師多么熟練,每天也只可以工作24小時,消費(fèi)者接受理發(fā)的時間同樣只有24小時。

而從服務(wù)業(yè)獲得更多增長的唯一方法是自動化,或者找到更有效分配技術(shù)勞動力的方法。全自動化發(fā)廊和餐廳只存在于科幻小說中,所以現(xiàn)代科技將大部分注意力放在后一類,即勞動力更有效分配方面。

一直有人嘲笑服務(wù)應(yīng)用程序的爆炸式增長是將“媽媽再也不幫你做的事互聯(lián)網(wǎng)化”,但這仍然釋放了巨大的財富。谷歌(Google)讓信息分發(fā)更容易也從中獲利,專為協(xié)調(diào)零工經(jīng)濟(jì)開發(fā)的應(yīng)用程序也一樣。

由應(yīng)用程序支持的零工經(jīng)濟(jì)只是服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的最新階段,自19世紀(jì)以來,美國的服務(wù)業(yè)一直穩(wěn)步增長,目前世界其他地區(qū)也在增長。從前只有富人有仆人,現(xiàn)在擁有智能手機(jī)的人都可以進(jìn)入市場獲得同樣的服務(wù)。媽媽再也不用為你所有的事而操心了?一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示,這可能正是本個十年里最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長點(diǎn)。

標(biāo)志性例子就是網(wǎng)約車應(yīng)用程序Uber。該應(yīng)用程序通過減少協(xié)調(diào)服務(wù)的工作量,消除勞動者和消費(fèi)者在時間匱乏方面的一些限制。開車去機(jī)場可能還是需要一小時,但你和司機(jī)跳過事先準(zhǔn)備步驟省下的時間可以釋放真正的經(jīng)濟(jì)價值。截至4月下旬,Uber的市值在1100億美元左右。

財富的關(guān)鍵不僅僅是效率,也取決于技術(shù)本身使用體驗(yàn)的根本改變。

正如奧美(Ogilvy)的副主席羅里?薩瑟蘭指出的那樣,Uber結(jié)合了效率與心理學(xué)觀察。因?yàn)槿藗兛梢栽谥悄苁謾C(jī)屏幕上看到車多久能夠到達(dá),等待的焦慮感就會減少。乘客和司機(jī)的評分,還有Uber用戶體驗(yàn)中其他令人愉悅的心理因素,都是公司不斷擴(kuò)張的動力。

尋找“理發(fā)界的Uber”

未來十年里,服務(wù)業(yè)其他領(lǐng)域應(yīng)用類似流程將出現(xiàn)增加。Uber對出租車行業(yè)的改造,將應(yīng)用在衛(wèi)生、健康、美容、教育、食品、長途旅行、托兒,甚至一些專業(yè)服務(wù)領(lǐng)域。

即使在21世紀(jì)第三個十年,很多廣泛使用的服務(wù)仍然受到過時信息技術(shù)造成時間成本限制。在網(wǎng)上搜索“Uber理發(fā)”,就會看到諸多對某家公司或另一家公司將擴(kuò)張的預(yù)測。然而即便經(jīng)歷了數(shù)字家庭服務(wù)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)需求比以往都高的一年之后,也沒有哪家公司真正實(shí)現(xiàn)。

家庭保健助理、護(hù)士和醫(yī)生工作的速度永遠(yuǎn)無法超越現(xiàn)有水平。人與人深度接觸的服務(wù)仍然具有價值,因?yàn)閹缀醪豢赡軐?shí)現(xiàn)自動化。然而即使經(jīng)過一年的快速數(shù)字化,巨大的收益并非來源于自動化,而是來自醫(yī)院IT轉(zhuǎn)移到云基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,或者利用虛擬醫(yī)療代替面對面就診之類很簡單的進(jìn)步。

雖然難以置信,但每個天天泡在Zoom上遠(yuǎn)程工作的人,都對應(yīng)著一位需要親自到現(xiàn)場工作的一線員工,而且得在辦公室的排班表上安排下個班次。

對數(shù)字化的抵制并不只包括需要現(xiàn)場工作的一線服務(wù)。舉例來說,為什么類似Uber這類能夠省時又改善心情的應(yīng)用程序并未在金融服務(wù)領(lǐng)域里流行起來?可用步驟繁雜的人壽保險辦理舉個例子:其流程當(dāng)中包括安排個人健康檢查、個性化財務(wù)建議和文書工作等,即便對有能力購買的人來說仍然是很耗費(fèi)時間的過程。不管對消費(fèi)者還是供應(yīng)商,解決時間匱乏問題可以產(chǎn)生多大價值?

而釋放剩余增長的關(guān)鍵是什么?是Uber創(chuàng)新能實(shí)現(xiàn)的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn),即改進(jìn)用戶體驗(yàn)的速度。

如果沒有自動工具的幫助,根據(jù)用戶海量行為和個人行為分析和完善應(yīng)用程序,Uber就無法快速發(fā)展??萍籍a(chǎn)品的升級速度對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長至關(guān)重要,有跡象顯示,改進(jìn)速度正在加快。

在美國,個人電腦進(jìn)入75%的家庭花了25年,是電話和汽車普及時間的一半。手機(jī)普及的速度更快,短短15年就有90%的人使用。但Uber只用了不到三年就從想法變成在35個城市實(shí)際運(yùn)作的現(xiàn)實(shí)。而且該公司表示,最早期的員工包括一位神經(jīng)科學(xué)家。

從用戶行為中學(xué)習(xí)并快速改進(jìn)體驗(yàn),正是Uber從交通運(yùn)輸這一傳統(tǒng)服務(wù)中釋放出的新價值。未來十年里,我們將驚喜地發(fā)現(xiàn),即便沒有那么傳統(tǒng)的服務(wù)也能夠挖掘出新價值。(財富中文網(wǎng))

柯爾斯滕?阿萊格里?威廉姆斯是Optimizely公司的首席營銷官。

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

疫情時代,時間匱乏現(xiàn)象可能是數(shù)字化工作環(huán)境產(chǎn)生的新副作用。就像Zoom倦怠一樣,之前沒有人能夠預(yù)料到,怎么能怨天尤人?當(dāng)一年前封鎖開始時,人們都以為在沒有通勤和辦公室的干擾之后,居家遠(yuǎn)程辦公時間會更多。

然而在居家辦公一年之后,大家都感到時間變少了。根據(jù)《哈佛商業(yè)評論》(Harvard Business Review)在今年2月的研究,開會時間增加了13%;56%的遠(yuǎn)程辦公者認(rèn)為工作需求增加;62%的受訪者表示,過去三個月一直在努力管理工作量?,F(xiàn)在工作日平均工作時間比疫情前延長了48分鐘。

如果數(shù)字工具可以提升效率,那為什么對它的更多使用卻似乎導(dǎo)致時間變少?

根本原因不是疫情危機(jī)暫時的影響,而是人們與工具關(guān)系產(chǎn)生的副產(chǎn)品。

自從20世紀(jì)90年代黑莓(BlackBerry)等便攜式收發(fā)電子郵件的設(shè)備問世,工作日工作時長平均增加了兩小時。伴隨著一種財富實(shí)際增長,人們在任何地方都能夠跟同事交流,不過這也要面臨另一種財富損失,就是時間。

在數(shù)字時代來臨之前,社會學(xué)家先驅(qū)就觀察到了該趨勢。1972年,丹尼爾?貝爾就寫道:“生產(chǎn)率較低時,時間相對便宜;生產(chǎn)率很高時,時間就變得相對昂貴。簡而言之,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長意味著時間稀缺性普遍增加?!?/p>

貝爾所說的生產(chǎn)力是指大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)獲得的物質(zhì)產(chǎn)品更加豐富。有幾十種牙膏可供選擇時,普通人即便愿意也沒有時間一一嘗試。不管多么草率,選擇某個品牌都要付出時間和精力。將該效應(yīng)乘以生活中每個大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)的物品,最終會得到總時間和注意力的總和。簡而言之,對于享受經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的人來說,經(jīng)濟(jì)的每一點(diǎn)增長都會產(chǎn)生增量成本。

時間貧困與服務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)

盡管時間匱乏是工業(yè)產(chǎn)品增加的副作用,但它也可能變成服務(wù)領(lǐng)域增長的制約因素。

批量生產(chǎn)剪刀和梳子幾乎不需要人投入什么關(guān)注,然而理發(fā)仍然需要熟練工人持續(xù)付出,也需要顧客不間斷地參與。不管美發(fā)師多么熟練,每天也只可以工作24小時,消費(fèi)者接受理發(fā)的時間同樣只有24小時。

而從服務(wù)業(yè)獲得更多增長的唯一方法是自動化,或者找到更有效分配技術(shù)勞動力的方法。全自動化發(fā)廊和餐廳只存在于科幻小說中,所以現(xiàn)代科技將大部分注意力放在后一類,即勞動力更有效分配方面。

一直有人嘲笑服務(wù)應(yīng)用程序的爆炸式增長是將“媽媽再也不幫你做的事互聯(lián)網(wǎng)化”,但這仍然釋放了巨大的財富。谷歌(Google)讓信息分發(fā)更容易也從中獲利,專為協(xié)調(diào)零工經(jīng)濟(jì)開發(fā)的應(yīng)用程序也一樣。

由應(yīng)用程序支持的零工經(jīng)濟(jì)只是服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的最新階段,自19世紀(jì)以來,美國的服務(wù)業(yè)一直穩(wěn)步增長,目前世界其他地區(qū)也在增長。從前只有富人有仆人,現(xiàn)在擁有智能手機(jī)的人都可以進(jìn)入市場獲得同樣的服務(wù)。媽媽再也不用為你所有的事而操心了?一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示,這可能正是本個十年里最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長點(diǎn)。

標(biāo)志性例子就是網(wǎng)約車應(yīng)用程序Uber。該應(yīng)用程序通過減少協(xié)調(diào)服務(wù)的工作量,消除勞動者和消費(fèi)者在時間匱乏方面的一些限制。開車去機(jī)場可能還是需要一小時,但你和司機(jī)跳過事先準(zhǔn)備步驟省下的時間可以釋放真正的經(jīng)濟(jì)價值。截至4月下旬,Uber的市值在1100億美元左右。

財富的關(guān)鍵不僅僅是效率,也取決于技術(shù)本身使用體驗(yàn)的根本改變。

正如奧美(Ogilvy)的副主席羅里?薩瑟蘭指出的那樣,Uber結(jié)合了效率與心理學(xué)觀察。因?yàn)槿藗兛梢栽谥悄苁謾C(jī)屏幕上看到車多久能夠到達(dá),等待的焦慮感就會減少。乘客和司機(jī)的評分,還有Uber用戶體驗(yàn)中其他令人愉悅的心理因素,都是公司不斷擴(kuò)張的動力。

尋找“理發(fā)界的Uber”

未來十年里,服務(wù)業(yè)其他領(lǐng)域應(yīng)用類似流程將出現(xiàn)增加。Uber對出租車行業(yè)的改造,將應(yīng)用在衛(wèi)生、健康、美容、教育、食品、長途旅行、托兒,甚至一些專業(yè)服務(wù)領(lǐng)域。

即使在21世紀(jì)第三個十年,很多廣泛使用的服務(wù)仍然受到過時信息技術(shù)造成時間成本限制。在網(wǎng)上搜索“Uber理發(fā)”,就會看到諸多對某家公司或另一家公司將擴(kuò)張的預(yù)測。然而即便經(jīng)歷了數(shù)字家庭服務(wù)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)需求比以往都高的一年之后,也沒有哪家公司真正實(shí)現(xiàn)。

家庭保健助理、護(hù)士和醫(yī)生工作的速度永遠(yuǎn)無法超越現(xiàn)有水平。人與人深度接觸的服務(wù)仍然具有價值,因?yàn)閹缀醪豢赡軐?shí)現(xiàn)自動化。然而即使經(jīng)過一年的快速數(shù)字化,巨大的收益并非來源于自動化,而是來自醫(yī)院IT轉(zhuǎn)移到云基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,或者利用虛擬醫(yī)療代替面對面就診之類很簡單的進(jìn)步。

雖然難以置信,但每個天天泡在Zoom上遠(yuǎn)程工作的人,都對應(yīng)著一位需要親自到現(xiàn)場工作的一線員工,而且得在辦公室的排班表上安排下個班次。

對數(shù)字化的抵制并不只包括需要現(xiàn)場工作的一線服務(wù)。舉例來說,為什么類似Uber這類能夠省時又改善心情的應(yīng)用程序并未在金融服務(wù)領(lǐng)域里流行起來?可用步驟繁雜的人壽保險辦理舉個例子:其流程當(dāng)中包括安排個人健康檢查、個性化財務(wù)建議和文書工作等,即便對有能力購買的人來說仍然是很耗費(fèi)時間的過程。不管對消費(fèi)者還是供應(yīng)商,解決時間匱乏問題可以產(chǎn)生多大價值?

而釋放剩余增長的關(guān)鍵是什么?是Uber創(chuàng)新能實(shí)現(xiàn)的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn),即改進(jìn)用戶體驗(yàn)的速度。

如果沒有自動工具的幫助,根據(jù)用戶海量行為和個人行為分析和完善應(yīng)用程序,Uber就無法快速發(fā)展??萍籍a(chǎn)品的升級速度對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長至關(guān)重要,有跡象顯示,改進(jìn)速度正在加快。

在美國,個人電腦進(jìn)入75%的家庭花了25年,是電話和汽車普及時間的一半。手機(jī)普及的速度更快,短短15年就有90%的人使用。但Uber只用了不到三年就從想法變成在35個城市實(shí)際運(yùn)作的現(xiàn)實(shí)。而且該公司表示,最早期的員工包括一位神經(jīng)科學(xué)家。

從用戶行為中學(xué)習(xí)并快速改進(jìn)體驗(yàn),正是Uber從交通運(yùn)輸這一傳統(tǒng)服務(wù)中釋放出的新價值。未來十年里,我們將驚喜地發(fā)現(xiàn),即便沒有那么傳統(tǒng)的服務(wù)也能夠挖掘出新價值。(財富中文網(wǎng))

柯爾斯滕?阿萊格里?威廉姆斯是Optimizely公司的首席營銷官。

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

Call it another side effect of our COVID-era digital work environment: the phenomenon known as time poverty. Like Zoom fatigue, we didn’t see it coming, and how could you blame us? A year ago, when lockdowns began, it was a safe assumption that a lack of commuting and in-office interruptions would free up time for remote workers.

Yet after a year of working from home there is a collective sense of lost time. According to a February study from the Harvard Business Review, the amount of time we spend in meetings is up by 13%; 56% of remote workers feel their job demands have increased; and 62% said they’ve been struggling to manage their workloads over the past three months. The average workday is now 48 minutes longer than it was pre-pandemic.

If digital tools make us more efficient, why does using them more seem to give us less time in return?

The root cause is not a temporary effect of the COVID-19 crisis, but a by-product of our relationship to digital tools.

After the introduction of portable email devices like the BlackBerry in the 1990s, the length of the average workday increased by two hours. What was an effective increase in one form of wealth—the ability to communicate with our coworkers from anywhere—was paid for by the loss of another kind of wealth, namely, our time.

This dynamic was observed even before the digital era, by the pioneering sociologist Daniel Bell, in 1972: “When productivity is low, time is relatively cheap; when productivity is high, time becomes relatively expensive. In short, economic growth entails a general increase in the scarcity of time.”

By productivity Bell meant the greater abundance of material goods derived from mass production. When there are several dozen varieties of toothpaste to choose from, the average person will not have the time to sample them all, even if they wanted to. It takes some time and attention to choose one brand over another, no matter how cursory the decision. Multiply this effect by every mass-produced object in your life, and you end up with a significant sum of your total time and attention. In short, every bit of economic growth has had an incremental cost in the available time of those who enjoy it.

Time poverty and the service economy

Whereas time poverty is a side effect of growth in the realm of manufactured goods, it might act as a constraint on growth in the realm of services.

A single pair of scissors and a comb require little individual attention to mass-produce, yet getting a haircut still requires the sustained attention of a single skilled laborer and the uninterrupted presence of their customer. No matter how skilled the hairdresser, he or she still has only 24 hours a day to ply their trade, and the consumer still has only 24 hours in which to receive a haircut.

The only way to extract more growth from the services industry is to automate the work or to find a way to distribute skilled labor more efficiently. With fully automated hair salons and restaurants still confined to science fiction, modern tech has devoted much of its attention to the latter category, the more efficient distribution of labor.

The explosion of service apps has been derided as “the Internet of stuff your mom won’t do for you anymore,” but it has nevertheless unlocked tremendous wealth. Google made information delivery easier and has reaped the rewards, but so too have apps that have evolved to coordinate the gig economy.

App-enabled gig work is merely the latest phase of growth in the services industry, which has been steadily increasing in the U.S. since the 19th century and is currently on the rise in the rest of the world. Where once only the wealthy had servants, now anybody with a smartphone has access to a marketplace for the same services. All that stuff your mom won’t do for you anymore? It just might be the biggest source of economic growth in this decade, according to some economists.

The iconic example of this is the ride-sharing app Uber. It eliminated some of the constraints of time poverty for both the laborer and the consumer, by reducing the effort it took to coordinate the service. It may still take an hour to be driven to the airport, but the time you and the driver saved by skipping all the steps beforehand unlocked real economic value. As of late April, Uber’s market value was hovering near $110 billion.

The key to this wealth transcends mere efficiency. It also depends on a radical change in the experience of using the technology itself.

As Ogilvy vice chair Rory Sutherland has pointed out, Uber combines efficiency with insights into psychology. Because we can see on our smartphone’s screen exactly how long it will take our car to arrive, the anxiety of waiting is reduced. Ratings for riders and drivers and other psychologically pleasing aspects of Uber’s user experience are what fueled its expansion.

The hunt for the “Uber for haircuts”

Deployed throughout the rest of the services sector, similar processes will enable growth in the coming decade. What Uber has done for taxis will be done for health, wellness, beauty, education, food, long-distance travel, childcare, and even some professional services.

Even in the third decade of the 21st century, many widely used services are still constrained by the time cost built into outdated information technology. Search online for “Uber for haircuts” and you’ll see repeated predictions that one company or another is about to scale. Yet none has, even after a year when the digitally enabled ecosystem of home services has been in higher demand than ever.

While on the job, home health aides, nurses, and doctors will never be able to work faster than they already do. High-touch person-to-person services are valuable for the same reasons they are virtually impossible to automate. Yet even after a year of rapid digitalization, there are still huge gains to be made not from automation but from low-hanging fruit like moving hospital IT to cloud infrastructure, or using virtual care as a replacement for some in-person visits.

Hard as it is to believe, for every remote worker who spends their day on Zoom, there are frontline workers who still have to be physically present just to schedule their next shift on a piece of paper in an office.

But the resistance to digitalization doesn’t stop with physical, frontline services. Why haven’t the time-saving and psychology-boosting benefits of an app like Uber exploded into the world of financial services, for example? Take the multistep process of getting life insurance. It encompasses the coordination of in-person health screenings, personalized financial advice, and paperwork and is, even for those with the means to purchase it, still a time-intensive process. How much value could come from tackling the time poverty problem there, both for consumers and providers?

What’s the key to unlocking all that remaining growth? It is the one additional element without which Uber’s innovation would not have been possible: the speed at which we can now refine the user experience.

Unassisted by automated tools which analyze and refine the app according to mass and individual user behavior, Uber would not have scaled as fast as it did. The rate of improvement for technology products is crucial to growth, and there are signs that it is speeding up.

It took the personal computer 25 years to be adopted by 75% of households in the United States, half as long as it took telephones and automobiles to reach the same level of adoption. Cell phones reached 90% of the population even quicker, in just 15 years. But it took Uber less than three years to go from an idea to an operational reality in 35 cities. And it is telling that a neuroscientist was among the company’s first hires.

The ability to learn from user behavior and quickly refine user experience was what unlocked new value from transportation, a service as old as the wheel. In the next decade, it will be a wonder to see what new value can be unlocked from services even half as old.

Kirsten Allegri Williams is the chief marketing officer of Optimizely.

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