沙特阿美將創(chuàng)下單只股票上市的兩項(xiàng)紀(jì)錄。

現(xiàn)在幾乎可以肯定，在12月5日將IPO發(fā)行價(jià)定在區(qū)間上限后，沙特阿美將創(chuàng)造有史以來最大規(guī)模的上市紀(jì)錄。而且，上市后的沙特阿美幾乎肯定會(huì)擊敗蘋果，成為全球市值最高的上市公司。

盡管西方投資者對其IPO價(jià)格持有保留態(tài)度，但沙特和海灣地區(qū)的機(jī)構(gòu)和個(gè)人的需求足夠龐大，推動(dòng)本次上市創(chuàng)下歷史紀(jì)錄。沙特阿美是全球最大的石油生產(chǎn)商，沙特政府持有很小一部分股份。

利雅得時(shí)間12月5日晚間，沙特阿美宣布機(jī)構(gòu)和個(gè)人投資者認(rèn)購金額共1190億美元，認(rèn)購規(guī)模達(dá)到發(fā)售30億股總金額的4.65倍。

最終，沙特阿美將IPO價(jià)格定為32里亞爾（約合8.53美元），為此前公布的30里亞爾至32里亞爾區(qū)間上限。

擊敗阿里巴巴

按照發(fā)行價(jià)格，占總股本1.5%的30億股流通股總價(jià)達(dá)256億美元，超過了阿里巴巴2014年創(chuàng)下的250億美元紀(jì)錄。

如果市場需求強(qiáng)勁，上市30天內(nèi)承銷商在沙特政府批準(zhǔn)后實(shí)施全部或部分超額配售權(quán)，也即“綠鞋”機(jī)制。一旦該機(jī)制啟動(dòng)，發(fā)行股票數(shù)量將增加15%，市值也會(huì)增加數(shù)十億美元。

如果所有股票順利發(fā)行，認(rèn)購總金額將升至294億美元，輕松打破紀(jì)錄。

本次IPO后，沙特阿美市值達(dá)到1.7萬億美元，超過蘋果公司的1.16萬億美元，不過，該金額并未達(dá)到沙特王儲(chǔ)穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼于2016年首次披露將出售沙特阿美股份時(shí)夸口的2萬億美元。

沙特阿美也是全球最賺錢的公司，本次上市后其市值比西方五大石油公司埃克森美孚、荷蘭皇家殼牌、雪佛龍、道達(dá)爾和英國石油加起來還高。

機(jī)構(gòu)投資者必須在12月8日前支付費(fèi)用，稍后利雅得證券交易所將宣布股票交易時(shí)間。

歐佩克貿(mào)易

其實(shí)沙特阿美的市值與油價(jià)密切相關(guān)，就在IPO定價(jià)期間，歐佩克在維也納發(fā)布的世界石油展望報(bào)告稱，沙特阿拉伯、歐佩克其他產(chǎn)油國和俄羅斯就進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)達(dá)成一致，希望提振過去五年萎靡不振的油價(jià)。

由于市場對協(xié)議的預(yù)期，原油期貨價(jià)格飆升，12月4日，布倫特原油價(jià)格每桶上漲超過2美元，每桶略低于63美元。

機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)購了1060億美元的股票，沙特阿拉伯和海灣地區(qū)的個(gè)人投資者認(rèn)購了130億美元的股票，約是預(yù)留10億股總金額的1.5倍。小投資者的需求并沒有打破之前的上市紀(jì)錄，2014年，沙特國家商業(yè)銀行上市發(fā)行60億美元的股票，散戶投資者認(rèn)購股份達(dá)發(fā)行股份的23倍。

盡管沙特阿美上市為全球最大規(guī)模，但對沙特政府來說苦樂自知。之前為了推進(jìn)穆罕默德王儲(chǔ)的“2030年愿景”計(jì)劃，沙特經(jīng)濟(jì)加快現(xiàn)代化，同時(shí)減少對石油的依賴，沙特阿美部分私有化的歷程也漫長而曲折。

最初的計(jì)劃是在紐約或倫敦等國際交易所發(fā)行最多5%股份，籌集1000億美元，為王儲(chǔ)雄心勃勃的多元化計(jì)劃籌集資金，計(jì)劃當(dāng)中包括投資5000億美元興建新型特大城市。但隨著沙特阿美選擇在本國的沙特交易所上市，規(guī)模也較原計(jì)劃縮小，海外上市計(jì)劃就此擱置。由于沙特政府對“皇冠之珠”報(bào)價(jià)較高，國際上大投資方猶豫不決，沙特阿美放棄了前往海灣以外地區(qū)上市的計(jì)劃。

沙特投資者的出價(jià)過高？

一項(xiàng)針對31家國際資產(chǎn)管理公司的調(diào)查顯示，投資者對沙特阿美的估值平均為1.26萬億美元，意味著沙特當(dāng)局的估值已經(jīng)高出約35%。券商伯恩斯坦和機(jī)構(gòu)投資者分享平臺Procensus調(diào)查的資產(chǎn)管理公司中，只有13%表示愿意按照IPO設(shè)定的價(jià)格區(qū)間買入。

沙特阿美承諾未來五年每年至少支付750億美元的股息。根據(jù)沙特政府的估值，這意味著公司初始收益率為4.5%，明顯低于大多數(shù)跨國石油巨頭。參與調(diào)查的資產(chǎn)管理公司則認(rèn)為，沙特阿美的收益率應(yīng)該高于西方石油巨頭。

“雖然投資者一致認(rèn)為，阿美石油財(cái)務(wù)勢力雄厚，還具有特許經(jīng)營權(quán)，但公司治理薄弱，盈利增長前景有限，所以相較于同行有所折價(jià)。”伯恩斯坦建議不要參與此次IPO。

其他讓西方投資者對參與沙特阿美上市望而卻步的因素包括，化石燃料因?qū)е氯蜃兣磳β暲瞬粩嗉哟螅约叭藗儞?dān)心沙特的政治、安全和人權(quán)狀況。

去年記者卡舒吉在沙特駐伊斯坦布爾領(lǐng)事館遇害以來，沙特阿拉伯的國際聲譽(yù)不斷受損。今年9月一架無人機(jī)突襲了沙特阿美石油的兩處設(shè)施，一時(shí)之間影響了沙特半數(shù)石油生產(chǎn)，也凸顯了其脆弱性。也門胡塞組織宣布對該襲擊負(fù)責(zé)，但美國和沙特都指責(zé)沙特在本地的競爭對手伊朗。伊朗則否認(rèn)指控。

巨額利潤

沙特阿美的石油產(chǎn)量上限決定權(quán)并不在管理層手中，而是沙特政府根據(jù)歐佩克目標(biāo)制定。

另一方面，沙特阿美的業(yè)績相當(dāng)亮眼。2018年公司收入3560億美元，凈利潤1110億美元，超過了最近一個(gè)財(cái)年微軟和蘋果財(cái)政凈收入總和。

2018年，沙特阿美日產(chǎn)原油1030萬桶，約占全球原油產(chǎn)量八分之一，目前坐擁52年的儲(chǔ)量。

此外，今年沙特阿美以690億美元收購沙特基礎(chǔ)工業(yè)公司多數(shù)股權(quán)后，也躋身全球化工行業(yè)重要參與者。

沙特阿美的歷史最早可追溯至1933年，當(dāng)時(shí)沙特阿拉伯特許加州標(biāo)準(zhǔn)石油公司，即現(xiàn)在的雪佛龍?jiān)谏程乜碧绞汀?938年第一次商業(yè)勘探成功。多年來，德士古，還有埃克森美孚和美孚的前身等其他幾家美國石油公司都曾經(jīng)入股沙特阿美，后來沙特政府逐步收回了股份。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Saudi Aramco is about to set two records in a single listing.

It’s now all but certain to score the biggest ever initial public share offering after setting the offer price at the top end of the range on December 5. And, in doing so, it will almost certainly land the title as the world’s most valuable listed company, beating Apple.

Despite reservations about the price among Western investors, Saudi and Gulf institutions and individuals generated enough demand to push the IPO into historic territory. The Saudi government is floating a tiny piece of the world’s biggest oil producer.

Institutions and individual investors bid a total of $119 billion, applying for 4.65 times the 3 billion shares on offer, Aramco announced on December 5 evening, Riyadh time.

Saudi Aramco set the final IPO price Thursday at 32 riyals ($8.53), at the top of the previously announced 30-32 riyal range.

Beating Alibaba

That values the 3 billion share free float—1.5% of the total—at $25.6 billion, beating the previous world record IPO of $25 billion set by Alibaba in 2014.

If there is strong demand, underwriters have the right at any time within the first 30 days of trading to take up all or part of the over-allotment, or “greenshoe”, option granted by the Saudi government that would expand the number of shares on offer by 15%, adding billions more to the valuation.

If taken up entirely, that would raise the total value of the offer to $29.4 billion, comfortably beating the old record.

The IPO will give Saudi Aramco a market value of $1.7 trillion, surpassing Apple’s $1.16 trillion, though it falls short of the $2 trillion valuation targeted by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman when he first revealed his ambition to sell shares in Aramco back in 2016.

Aramco, the world’s most profitable company, will have a market value higher than that of the top five Western oil companies—ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, Total and BP—put together.

Institutions must pay for their shares by Dec. 8 and the Riyadh stock exchange will announce later when the shares will start trading.

The OPEC trade

Saudi Aramco’s value is closely linked to the oil price and the IPO pricing coincided with reports from Vienna that Saudi Arabia, other OPEC producers and Russia are set to agree on deeper oil production cuts to support prices that have languished for the past five years.

Oil futures prices surged in anticipation of the deal, with Brent rising more than $2 a barrel to just under $63 on December 4.

Institutions bid $106 billion for shares while individual investors in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf applied for $13 billion of shares, or about one and a half times the one billion shares set aside for them. Demand from small investors did not scale the heights of Saudi Arabia’s previous record IPO, the $6 billion flotation of National Commercial Bank in 2014, when retail investors applied for 23 times the shares on offer.

Although the flotation of Saudi Aramco will be the world’s biggest, the achievement will be bittersweet for the Saudi government. The cornerstone of Crown Prince Mohammed’s “Vision 2030” plan to modernize the Saudi economy and reduce its reliance on oil, the part-privatization of Aramco has been a long and tortuous process.

The original plan was to sell up to 5% of the company on an international exchange such as New York or London, raising $100 billion to fund the Crown Prince’s ambitious diversification plans which include a new $500 billion mega-city, but plans for an international listing were put on hold as Aramco went ahead with a smaller listing on the local Tadawul exchange. Aramco abandoned plans to market the shares outside the Gulf after big international investors balked at the high price tag that the Saudi government had put on its crown jewel.

Are Saudi investors overpaying?

A survey of 31 international asset managers released this week found that, on average, the investors valued Saudi Aramco at $1.26 trillion, which would mean Saudi authorities are over-valuing Aramco shares by around 35%. Only 13% of the asset managers surveyed by brokerage Bernstein and Procensus, an opinion-sharing platform for institutional investors, said they would buy shares in the price range set for the IPO.

Saudi Aramco has pledged to pay a dividend of at least $75 billion a year for the next five years. Based on the Saudi government’s valuation, that would mean the oil giant would trade on an initial yield of 4.5% which is significantly lower than most global oil majors, whereas the asset managers in the survey believed it should pay a higher yield than Western oil majors.

“While investors agree that Aramco has superior financial and franchise strength, weak corporate governance and limited earnings growth are reasons for the discount relative to peers,” said Bernstein, which is not advising on the IPO.

Other factors that dissuaded Western investors from putting money into the Aramco IPO included the growing backlash against fossil fuels that contribute to global warming as well as political, security and human rights concerns.

Saudi Arabia’s international reputation has suffered since journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul last year, while Aramco’s vulnerability was exposed in September by a drone attack on two of its installations that briefly knocked out half of Saudi oil production. The Yemeni Houthi group said it carried out the attack but Washington and Riyadh blamed Iran, Saudi Arabia’s regional rival. Iran denies the charge.

Mega profits

The company’s maximum oil production levels are out of the hands of Aramco management as these are set by the Saudi government in line with OPEC targets.

Aramco’s financial might is impressive. The company reported revenues of $356 billion in 2018 and a net profit of $111 billion. That’s more than the combined net income reported by Microsoft and Apple in their most recent fiscal years.

It produced 10.3 million barrels of crude oil a day in 2018, or around one in eight barrels pumped worldwide, and is sitting on 52 years of reserves.

Aramco is also set to become a big player in the global chemical industry after buying a majority stake in Saudi Basic Industries Corp, SABIC, for $69 billion this year.

Saudi Aramco traces its origins back to 1933, when Saudi Arabia granted Standard Oil Co of California, now Chevron, a concession to explore for oil in the kingdom. The first commercial discovery was made in 1938. Over the years, several other U.S. oil companies—Texaco and predecessors of Exxon and Mobil—took stakes in what became known as the Arabian American Oil Co (Aramco) before it was acquired in stages by the Saudi government.