在新的一年即將來臨之際，貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端的逆風(fēng)仍然在破壞全球經(jīng)濟(jì)、阻礙增長(zhǎng)、削弱商界信心。但這并不一定意味著股市投資者會(huì)因此在2020年感到壓力。

美國(guó)銀行美林證券（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在12月3日表示，相反，全球股市明年預(yù)計(jì)將超過債市，公司利潤(rùn)的反彈會(huì)增加投資回報(bào), 價(jià)值股和表現(xiàn)不佳的歐洲市場(chǎng)也可能出現(xiàn)上揚(yáng)。

今年以來，資本“令人難以置信”地流出股市、流入債市，美銀美林的研究投資委員會(huì)主席杰瑞德·伍達(dá)德表示，該行明年更看好股票和大宗商品等“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)”，而非債券等“防御性配置”。

伍達(dá)德指出，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)明年有望觸及3,300點(diǎn)，歐洲股市可能上漲8%，受到脫歐沖擊的英國(guó)股市最終可能反彈5%。該銀行認(rèn)為，2020年美國(guó)股市的回報(bào)率將落后于歐洲和新興市場(chǎng)，而鑒于全球市場(chǎng)上有價(jià)值12萬億美元的負(fù)收益?zhèn)绹?guó)的高評(píng)級(jí)公司債仍然“特別有吸引力”。

伍達(dá)德補(bǔ)充說，今年美國(guó)公司的利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)主要“得益于”公司以股票回購(gòu)的形式“買進(jìn)股票”，這樣“提高每股收益很容易”。他表示，由于企業(yè)回購(gòu)問題“在政治上引發(fā)了更多爭(zhēng)議”，加上被監(jiān)管的陰影籠罩，企業(yè)明年可能會(huì)加速回購(gòu)，“趁著還能做抓緊”。

與此同時(shí)，美銀美林的美國(guó)股票和量化策略主管薩維塔·薩勃拉曼尼亞呼吁“2020年有意義地加速[公司]利潤(rùn)”。薩勃拉曼尼亞鼓勵(lì)投資者將目光投向美國(guó)市場(chǎng)以外的地方，她將美國(guó)市場(chǎng)描述為“共識(shí)性增持”市場(chǎng)，認(rèn)為歐洲、英國(guó)市場(chǎng)以及“世界其他地方”漲幅會(huì)更大。

以下是美銀美林的分析師在2020年展望中提到的其他一些值得注意的經(jīng)濟(jì)和市場(chǎng)問題：

“小氣”的中美貿(mào)易協(xié)議只是長(zhǎng)期爭(zhēng)端中的急救繃帶

盡管相互矛盾的信號(hào)讓市場(chǎng)似乎每周都升升降降，但中美之間達(dá)成貿(mào)易協(xié)定已經(jīng)萬事俱備，不過美銀美林的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)主管伊?！す锼狗Q其為中美長(zhǎng)期貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端中的“小協(xié)定”。哈里斯說，這是因?yàn)樘乩势照小皬?qiáng)烈的動(dòng)機(jī)”達(dá)成協(xié)議，從而在明年秋天的總統(tǒng)大選前提振人們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的信心。

更重要的是，雖然美國(guó)目前為止對(duì)中國(guó)商品加征的大部分關(guān)稅主要影響制造業(yè)等領(lǐng)域——迫使有關(guān)公司重新調(diào)整它們的供應(yīng)鏈——但最后一輪等待加征的關(guān)稅將不成比例地影響消費(fèi)品領(lǐng)域，會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)人的口袋產(chǎn)生更加突出的影響。

然而，貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端對(duì)商業(yè)信心的影響最大。哈里斯指出，即便是那些將供應(yīng)鏈從中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移到越南的公司，在總統(tǒng)今年早些時(shí)候威脅可能對(duì)越南采取行動(dòng)的情況下，也不得不保持警惕。他表示，“貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端的主要影響是凍結(jié)了每一家[擁有國(guó)際業(yè)務(wù)的]公司的商業(yè)投資。”

與此同時(shí)，在世界上最大的兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間將要持續(xù)的長(zhǎng)期爭(zhēng)端中，一項(xiàng)“小協(xié)議”僅僅意味著一次?；??！斑@場(chǎng)貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端與大豆無關(guān)；關(guān)乎的是技術(shù)和國(guó)家安全。”

哈里斯補(bǔ)充說，一旦大選年過去，爭(zhēng)議很可能再次“升級(jí)”?！昂芏喙緯?huì)擔(dān)心兩年后我們的處境?！?/p>

“慘敗”的價(jià)值股將東山再起

由于貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端可能沒有什么結(jié)果，而巨大的政治不確定性即將出現(xiàn)，到2020年，美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)科技和醫(yī)療行業(yè)的股票可能會(huì)遭遇陣痛。薩勃拉曼尼亞表示，考慮到科技公司在全球貿(mào)易中巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口，以及在即將到來的總統(tǒng)大選前人們對(duì)醫(yī)保的關(guān)注，這兩個(gè)行業(yè)可能會(huì)受到不利宏觀環(huán)境的“最大壓力”。

她表示，因此，市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)“從由成長(zhǎng)型股票引領(lǐng)轉(zhuǎn)向由價(jià)值型股票引領(lǐng)”，受益者或?qū)ń灰變r(jià)格一直處于極低水平的金融類股票。

薩勃拉曼尼亞表示：“我們很少會(huì)像今天這樣，看到價(jià)值型股票如此便宜，一敗涂地?！彼a(bǔ)充稱，現(xiàn)在是“根據(jù)估值”買入相對(duì)便宜股票的“大好時(shí)機(jī)”。（在美國(guó)之外，伍達(dá)德稱歐洲金融股是“世界上最有價(jià)值的機(jī)會(huì)之一?！保?/p>

經(jīng)濟(jì)“觸底”可能會(huì)傷害消費(fèi)者

美銀美林美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)部門的負(fù)責(zé)人邁克爾·邁耶表示，與近期相比，明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景相對(duì)悲觀，2020年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)1.7%。對(duì)其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體的預(yù)測(cè)也同樣不溫不火；哈里斯說，以中國(guó)為例，明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)計(jì)為5.6%，這一數(shù)字除了沒有達(dá)到6%的增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)外，或許會(huì)被“官方數(shù)據(jù)”夸大。

貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端很可能會(huì)讓美國(guó)“損失0.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)”的增長(zhǎng)率，哈里斯補(bǔ)充道。邁耶說，盡管美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)制造業(yè)是受到逆風(fēng)沖擊最嚴(yán)重的行業(yè)之一，但整體經(jīng)濟(jì)“回溢效應(yīng)最小”。消費(fèi)支出依然活力十足，持續(xù)強(qiáng)勁的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)也可以支撐不會(huì)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的觀點(diǎn)。

然而，這種情況可能在2020年改變。邁耶預(yù)測(cè)，明年消費(fèi)者支出“將逐漸放緩”，而非農(nóng)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)也可能放緩——不過保證每月新增12萬個(gè)工作崗位的速度將使失業(yè)率保持在4%以下。

邁耶補(bǔ)充說，僅憑這些數(shù)字還不足以促使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)采取進(jìn)一步降息行動(dòng)。（她指出，“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目前很可能什么都不做。”）但她表示，如果貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端升級(jí)，市場(chǎng)開始“表現(xiàn)糟糕”，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將采取行動(dòng)，防止經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況進(jìn)一步惡化。

盡管對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)期不溫不火，但美銀美林對(duì)明年經(jīng)濟(jì)前景總體持樂觀態(tài)度。世界銀行預(yù)測(cè)，如果美國(guó)和中國(guó)達(dá)成某種貿(mào)易解決方案，2020年上半年經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況將“觸底”，下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將“小幅提振”。

糟糕的CEO已經(jīng)“摧毀”了5,000億美元的價(jià)值

薩勃拉曼尼亞指出，眼下與環(huán)境、社會(huì)和公司治理（ESG）有關(guān)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)越來越流行，她把ESG和史上CEO變更“創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的一年”聯(lián)系起來。她表示，無論是“不當(dāng)行為”還是“在做出關(guān)鍵決策時(shí)沒有考慮到關(guān)鍵利益相關(guān)者”，上市公司與公司治理相關(guān)的爭(zhēng)議都給股東造成了“非常高昂的代價(jià)”。

薩勃拉曼尼亞表示，這類爭(zhēng)議在2019年“摧毀了美國(guó)近5,000億美元的市值”，其中“很大一部分”是“被ESG方面的違規(guī)行為消滅的”。

她補(bǔ)充說，這些損失對(duì)“股票表現(xiàn)產(chǎn)生了非常重大的影響”， 預(yù)計(jì)未來幾年，ESG標(biāo)準(zhǔn)對(duì)公眾投資者的重要性只會(huì)上升。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

Going into the new year, the global economy remains wracked by trade war-related headwinds that have hampered growth and hindered business confidence. But that doesn’t necessarily mean stock market investors will bear the brunt of this pain in 2020.

To the contrary, equity markets globally are expected to outperform bond markets next year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists said on December 3—citing an expected rebound in corporate earnings that will fuel investor returns, as well as upside to be found in value stocks and in underperforming markets like Europe.

After a year that saw “incredible” capital outflows out of equities and into bonds, Jared Woodard, the head of BoAML’s research investment committee, said the bank is more bullish on “risky assets” like equities and commodities than it is “defensive allocations” like bonds.

Woodard pointed to an S&P 500 that is expected to hit 3,300 points next year, as well as European equities that could rally 8% and a Brexit-hit U.K. market that could finally rebound as much as 5%. The bank noted that U.S. stock returns are expected to lag behind their European and emerging market counterparts in 2020, while high-grade U.S. corporate debt remains “particularly attractive” given $12 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt in the global markets.

Much of the upside in U.S. corporate profits this year was “driven by companies buying up their shares” in the form of buybacks, Woodard added—a dynamic that made it “easy for [companies'] earnings per share to improve.” With the matter of corporate buybacks becoming “more politically contentious” and the specter of regulation looming over the issue, companies could accelerate buybacks next year to “get in while they can,” he said.

In line with that, Savita Subramanian, BoAML’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, called for a “meaningful acceleration of [corporate] profits in 2020.” Subramanian encouraged investors to look beyond the U.S. market—which she described as “consensus overweight”—in favor of greater upside in Europe, the U.K., and “other parts of the world.”

Here are some other notable economic and market-related issues that BoAML analysts touched on in their outlook for 2020:

“Skinny” trade deal only a bandaid on long-term U.S.-China dispute

Despite conflicting signals that send the market either climbing or reeling on a seemingly weekly basis, it appears “the stars are aligned” for what Ethan Harris, BoAML’s head of global economics, termed a “skinny deal” between the U.S. and China in their ongoing trade dispute. That’s because the Trump administration has “strong incentive” to strike an accord that will help fuel confidence in the economy going into next fall’s presidential election, Harris said.

What’s more, while most of the tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by the U.S. to date have predominantly impacted sectors like manufacturing—forcing companies to recalibrate their supply chains—the “l(fā)ast round” of pending tariffs that lay in waiting would disproportionately affect consumer goods, which would more acutely hit Americans’ pockets.

Still, the trade war’s greatest impact has been on business confidence. Even companies that have shifted their supply chains from China to Vietnam, Harris noted, have had to stay on their toes amid the president’s threat of possible action against Vietnam earlier this year. “The main effect of the trade war has been freezing up business investment for any company” with an international presence, he said.

A “skinny deal,” meanwhile, would be a mere ceasefire amid what’s poised to be a long-term dispute between the world’s two largest economies. “This trade war isn’t about soybeans; it’s about technology and national security,” Subramanian noted.

Harris added that there could well be another “escalation” in the dispute once the election year has passed. “A lot of companies are going to be worried about where we are two years from now.”

“Bombed out” value stocks primed for a comeback

With the trade war likely not going anywhere and immense political uncertainty on the horizon, domestic equity sectors like tech and health care could be in for some pain in 2020. Those two sectors are “l(fā)ikely to be pressured the most” by macro headwinds, according to Subramanian, given tech companies’ exceptional exposure to global trade and the spotlight that’s been placed on health care in advance of the upcoming presidential election.

In turn, the market could be “shifting from an environment where growth stocks have led to one where value stocks will lead,” she said—with the likes of financial stocks, which have been trading at exceptionally cheap valuations, among the beneficiaries.

“We’re very rarely at a point where value stocks are as cheap and bombed out as they are today,” Subramanian said, adding that it’s a “very good time” to buy relatively cheap stocks “just on valuation.” (Beyond the U.S., Woodard described European financial stocks as “among the deepest value opportunities in the world.”)

Economic “bottoming” could hurt consumers

The economic growth picture for next year is relatively bearish compared to recent times, with the U.S. economy to expand 1.7% in 2020, according to BoAML head of U.S. economics Michelle Meyer. There’s similarly tepid forecast for other economies; China, for instance, is projected to grow 5.6% next year, which besides missing the country’s targeted 6% growth rate could well be inflated by “official government stats,” Harris said.

The trade war may well have “sliced off seventh-tenths of a percent” off of the U.S.’s growth rate, Harris added. Yet while domestic manufacturing is among the sectors to have borne the brunt of the headwinds, the overall economy has experienced “minimum spillback,” Meyer said. Consumer spending remains robust, while a continually strong labor market would back the argument that a recession is not on the cards.

That could change in 2020, however. Meyer predicted that consumer spending “should slow on a trend basis” next year, while non-farm payroll growth could also decelerate—albeit to a rate of around 120,000 jobs per month that would keep unemployment under 4%.

Such numbers alone wouldn’t be enough to spur the Federal Reserve into action as far as further interest rate cuts, Meyer added. (“The Fed would very much like to do nothing at this point,” she noted.) But should the trade war escalate and the markets begin to “behave badly,” she said the Fed would move to prevent any further deterioration in economic conditions.

Despite its lukewarm growth projections, BoAML delivered an altogether positive outlook of the economy next year. The bank forecasts a “bottoming” of conditions in the first half of 2020 that would give way to a “mini-boost” in growth in the second half of the year—provided the U.S. and China reach some sort of trade resolution.

Bad CEOs have “destroyed” $500 billion in value

Subramanian noted the increased prevalence of ESG-related criteria in the market, and tied it in with what she described as “record year” in terms of CEO turnover. Whether it was “improper conduct” or “not having key stakeholders in mind when making key decisions,” she said governance-related controversies at public companies had proven “very costly” to shareholders.

According to Subramanian, such controversies had “destroyed almost half a trillion dollars of U.S. market capitalization” in 2019, with a “huge chunk” of that value “wiped out by infractions on the ESG front.”

Those losses have had a “very material impact on stock performance,” she added, with the importance of ESG criteria among public investors only expected to grow in the coming years.