華爾街喜歡數(shù)字：利潤(rùn)、市盈率、投資回報(bào)率、上方阻力位、賬面價(jià)值、市場(chǎng)份額和折現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金流，諸如此類(lèi)。在眾議院準(zhǔn)備推動(dòng)彈劾總統(tǒng)的調(diào)查時(shí)，華爾街關(guān)注的是兩個(gè)數(shù)字：67和88%。前一個(gè)是眾議院提出彈劾后，將特朗普總統(tǒng)趕下臺(tái)需要的參議院贊成票數(shù)。88%則是目前共和黨內(nèi)部對(duì)特朗普的支持率。除非這個(gè)數(shù)字出現(xiàn)變化，否則除了已經(jīng)和民主黨站在一起的47名參議員外，將不大可能再出現(xiàn)20位持有同樣立場(chǎng)的共和黨參議員。

或許是出于這個(gè)原因，在眾議院議長(zhǎng)南希·佩洛西宣布正式啟動(dòng)彈劾調(diào)查后，美國(guó)股市第二天出現(xiàn)上漲。專(zhuān)業(yè)投資者的選擇是更關(guān)注于中美貿(mào)易緊張局勢(shì)可能得到化解以及能夠?yàn)槊绹?guó)農(nóng)民提供幫助的美日貿(mào)易協(xié)議。股市和彈劾總統(tǒng)的歷史就是這樣。除非政治行為觸及其底線(xiàn)，否則投資者就會(huì)視而不見(jiàn)。

雖然美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)此前的三次彈劾調(diào)查均未能把現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)趕下臺(tái)，但在這一點(diǎn)上也許需要特別說(shuō)明一下——理查德·尼克松在幾乎肯定將被彈劾前辭了職，并被民主黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的國(guó)會(huì)逐出了白宮，當(dāng)時(shí)他的支持率已經(jīng)跌破30%，共和黨也已經(jīng)放棄為他進(jìn)行辯護(hù)。由于安德魯·約翰遜被彈劾的時(shí)間比道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)幾乎早了30年，我們將只關(guān)注現(xiàn)代的兩位可比較人物，也就是理查德·尼克松和比爾·克林頓。

毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，水門(mén)事件時(shí)期的股市很難看。20世紀(jì)70年代初期至中期，道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)從高點(diǎn)到低點(diǎn)一共下跌了40%以上。但除了涉及理查德·尼克松總統(tǒng)的隱藏問(wèn)題被一點(diǎn)、一點(diǎn)地揭示出來(lái)所造成的心理創(chuàng)傷，同樣起作用的還有一些經(jīng)濟(jì)因素。通脹開(kāi)始產(chǎn)生影響，部分原因是不斷惡化的中東石油危機(jī)；鋼材價(jià)格不斷上漲；這位共和黨總統(tǒng)還實(shí)行了工資和價(jià)格管制。實(shí)際上，1973年5月水門(mén)事件開(kāi)始聽(tīng)證，聽(tīng)證會(huì)電視直播還成為了夏天的全國(guó)收視焦點(diǎn)，而當(dāng)年11月就出現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。沒(méi)錯(cuò)，70年代中期就是有這么多邁向悲慘世界的途徑。

1974年，杰拉爾德·福特在宣誓就職后說(shuō)：“我們國(guó)家的長(zhǎng)期噩夢(mèng)結(jié)束了。”但在尼克松辭職后，美國(guó)仍然陷于衰退之中，它一直延續(xù)到了1975年3月，隨后是失業(yè)率的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，無(wú)法控制的通脹以及70年代末急劇上升的利率。（迪斯科音樂(lè)隨后崛起，這多多少少和福特的話(huà)相悖。）實(shí)際上，1982年的牛市或許才是美國(guó)噩夢(mèng)的真正終結(jié)，因?yàn)閺哪菚r(shí)起，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和股市才開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)持續(xù)的正增長(zhǎng)。

克林頓遭彈劾期間的股市

這和比爾·克林頓那場(chǎng)彈劾大戲期間的股市相比儼然是經(jīng)濟(jì)上的“雙城記”——一個(gè)是最好的時(shí)代，另一個(gè)則是最糟的時(shí)代。70年代的狀況最為糟糕，最好的時(shí)代則是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)熱潮讓一些股市漲到了令人眩目的水平，而且維持了好幾年，直到2000年泡沫破裂。但在1998年下半年，金融市場(chǎng)顯然出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)緩和期，與之相伴的就是9月斯塔爾報(bào)告的出爐以及共和黨占多數(shù)的國(guó)會(huì)啟動(dòng)彈劾程序。當(dāng)時(shí)的一大未知數(shù)是將在11月到來(lái)的大選。

急于利用對(duì)比爾·克林頓的彈劾對(duì)共和黨產(chǎn)生了反作用，他們?cè)谥衅谶x舉中丟失了5個(gè)眾議院席位。南希·佩洛西對(duì)這段歷史心知肚明，可以認(rèn)為她一直到現(xiàn)在才登上民主黨的彈劾列車(chē)的原因就在這里。（人們經(jīng)常忽略的一點(diǎn)是共和黨在彈劾克林頓的風(fēng)波過(guò)后奪回了白宮，就像水門(mén)事件后的民主黨那樣。）在彈劾克林頓失敗后，股市很快重拾升勢(shì)，這也許是一個(gè)巧合，但很可能不是。讓成為新寵的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)股票在2000年跌落神壇的是它們未能奏效的“新典范”基本面，收入不重要，利潤(rùn)也不重要。

為了評(píng)估彈劾調(diào)查對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響，華爾街將關(guān)注67和88%這兩個(gè)數(shù)字。為了便于比較可以告訴大家，水門(mén)事件期間理查德·尼克松在共和黨內(nèi)的支持率降到了54%。要重現(xiàn)這樣的局面，當(dāng)前的政治格局必須發(fā)生重大變化，或者經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況出現(xiàn)巨變。實(shí)際情況是，尼克松的支持率恰好在經(jīng)濟(jì)就要陷入衰退時(shí)出現(xiàn)了暴跌。

華爾街關(guān)注華盛頓，而華盛頓也在關(guān)注華爾街。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Wall Street loves numbers: earnings, P/E, ROI, overhead resistance, book value, market share, and discounted cash flow, just to name a few. But as the House prepares to move forward with an impeachment inquiry of the president, Wall Street is watching two numbers: 67, and 88%. The former is the number of U.S. Senators who would have to vote to remove President Trump from office if he is impeached by the House. And 88% is Trump’s current approval level within the GOP. Until that number changes, it’s unlikely the Senate would find 20 Republican Senators to join 47 who caucus with the Democrats.

That may explain why the stock market went up the day after Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced plans for a formal impeachment inquiry. Professional investors chose to focus more on the possible easing of trade tensions with China, as well as a trade deal with Japan that will help American farmers. That’s the history of the stock market and impeachment efforts. Investors ignore the politics unless and until those actions affect the bottom line.

While Congress has never removed a sitting president from office in its previous three inquiries, that statistic might need an asterisk since Richard Nixon stepped down before he most certainly would have been impeached and removed from office by a Democratically-led Congress, as Republicans gave up defending a president whose popularity had dipped below 30%. Since Andrew Johnson’s impeachment preceded the Dow Jones Industrials Index by almost 30 years, we’ll stay in the modern era with the two relevant comparisons: Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton.

There’s no question that the Watergate era stock market was ugly. From top to bottom in the early to mid-70s, the DOW Industrials fell more than 40%. But aside from the psychological pain of the drip, drip, drip of cover up evidence being revealed involving President Richard Nixon, there were economic issues at work as well. Inflation was starting to take hold, pushed in part by the burgeoning Middle East oil crisis; steel prices were going up; and wage and price controls were imposed by a Republican president. In fact, while the televised Watergate hearings began in May of 1973—mesmerizing a nation’s summer viewing—a recession began in November of that same year. Yes, there were many ways to be miserable back in the mid-70s.

“Our long national nightmare is over,” Gerald Ford said after taking the oath of office in 1974. But America was still in recession after Nixon’s resignation—it lasted until March of 1975—and was followed by a continuing rise in unemployment, rampant inflation, and zooming interest rates into the late 70s. (That was followed by the rise of disco music, which may or may not have contradicted Ford’s statement.) In fact, the bull market of 1982 might have been the actual end of the national nightmare, because it was then that the economy and stock market started moving in a sustained positive direction.

The stock market during Clinton’s impeachment

Compare that with the market during Bill Clinton’s impeachment saga, and you get the tale of two economies. The best of times and the worst of times. The worst being the 70s dynamics, and the best being the dot.com boom that drove some stock market prices to dizzying levels for several years before their eventual bust in 2000. But there was a clear lull in the financial markets in the second half of 1998. It coincided with the release of the Starr report in September and impeachment proceedings initiated by a Republican Congress. The great unknown was the impending November election.

The drive to capitalize on Bill Clinton’s impeachment backfired on the GOP in the midterms as they lost 5 seats in the House. Nancy Pelosi is fully aware of that history, which is presumably why she delayed getting on board the Democratic impeachment train until now. (It’s often ignored that Republicans took back the White House the next election, as Democrats did following Watergate.) It might have been a coincidence that the stock market started back on track shortly after the failed attempt to remove Clinton from office, but probably not. It was only the failed “new paradigm” fundamentals of the new-fangled dot.com stocks – revenue doesn’t matter; earnings don’t matter– that brought them back to earth in 2000.

To assess the impact of the impeachment inquiry on the markets, Wall Street will be watching 67, and 88%. For comparison’s sake, Richard Nixon’s support within the GOP fell to 54% during Watergate. There would have to be a huge shift in the current political landscape for that to happen now. Or perhaps a huge shift in the economic landscape. The fact is, Nixon’s support collapsed just the economy was heading into recession.

As Wall Street watches Washington, Washington will be watching Wall Street as well.