對(duì)緊張不安的投資者來(lái)說(shuō)，幾十年來(lái)債券一直是不明朗局勢(shì)中的“輻射避難所”。但在2019年，債券市場(chǎng)看起來(lái)卻更像是瞄準(zhǔn)投資者投資倉(cāng)位的導(dǎo)彈。

大衰退至今的10年中，世界各國(guó)利率在大多數(shù)時(shí)間里已經(jīng)處于低點(diǎn)，如今則再次下降，這讓養(yǎng)老基金和小規(guī)模投資者更難獲得緩慢但穩(wěn)定的利率收益，而正是這種收益讓債券成為許多退休基金的源泉。造成這種局面的因素有幾個(gè)，包括持續(xù)了10年的經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張開(kāi)始放緩、中美貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端可能給全球貿(mào)易帶來(lái)壓力以及多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都認(rèn)為2021年以前將出現(xiàn)衰退。

所有這些因素都很重要，原因是它們壓低了利率，而投資者也變得更愿意接受較低的“收益率”，或者說(shuō)利率，以換取債券在他們眼中的安全性。在這些因素的共同影響下，作為基準(zhǔn)的美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率已經(jīng)從2018年11月的3.24%降至今年9月1.45%的低點(diǎn)。

收益率下降會(huì)形成上升空間，至少理論上是這樣。收益率降的越低，現(xiàn)有債券的價(jià)格就漲的越高，從而使它們較高的利率顯得更有吸引力。從今年年初到9月中旬，彭博巴克萊美國(guó)綜合債券指數(shù)上升了8%，一只美國(guó)公司債券指數(shù)也上揚(yáng)了12.3%。不過(guò)，幾乎沒(méi)有債券投資者希望利率重新回到零，原因是微薄收益率的影響將超過(guò)任何債券價(jià)格的上漲。

債券投資巨頭太平洋投資管理公司掌握著1.8萬(wàn)億美元資產(chǎn)。該公司的董事總經(jīng)理斯科特·馬瑟說(shuō)：“今后，回報(bào)率將低于此前10年的水平，而這會(huì)給投資者帶來(lái)挑戰(zhàn)?！?/p>

For decades, bonds have offered a kind of fallout shelter for jittery investors in uncertain times. But in 2019, the bond market has looked more like the tip of a warhead aimed at their portfolios.

Global interest rates, already low for most of the decade since the Great Recession, are falling again, making it harder for pension funds and small investors to harvest the slow-and-steady interest income that makes bonds the foundation of many retirement funds. There are a number of factors at play: A decade-long economic expansion is starting to lose its momentum. The U.S.-China trade war threatens to weigh down global commerce. And a majority of economists expect a recession by 2021.

Here’s why that all matters: These factors drive down rates, as investors become more willing to accept less “yield,” or interest, in return for bonds’ perceived safety. Taken together, these forces have dragged the rate on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury from 3.24% in November 2018 to as low as 1.45% this September.

Falling rates have an upside, at least on paper: The further they fall, the higher prices rise on existing bonds, whose higher rates look more attractive. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is up 8% this year through mid-September, while an index of U.S. corporate bonds is up 12.3%. Still, few bond investors relish going back to near-zero interest rates because meager yields will outweigh any price gains.

“Going forward, the returns are going to be lower than they have been in the last decade,” says Scott Mather, a managing director at bond-investing giant Pimco, which has $1.8 trillion in assets under management. “And that makes it challenging for investors.”

這種環(huán)境下債券投資者能做些什么呢？低收益率和經(jīng)濟(jì)趨弱讓可接受的方案變得很少。鑒于債券價(jià)格處于高位，現(xiàn)在或許是賣(mài)掉高收益?zhèn)蕊L(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高證券的恰當(dāng)時(shí)機(jī)，這些證券在熊市中的震蕩往往較為劇烈，和成長(zhǎng)型科技股并無(wú)不同。

對(duì)就要或者已經(jīng)退休的投資者來(lái)說(shuō)，最安全的做法也許是緊握美國(guó)國(guó)債、質(zhì)量較高的抵押貸款支持債券以及金融等基本面強(qiáng)勁的行業(yè)中的投資級(jí)公司債券。當(dāng)然，這些債券的收益率或許很低，但其他資產(chǎn)的最終表現(xiàn)可能遠(yuǎn)不如它們。馬瑟指出，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)把利率降到接近零的水平，甚至像諸多歐洲國(guó)家和日本那樣進(jìn)入更危險(xiǎn)的負(fù)利率區(qū)間，盡管這“非常不可能”。這種情況有可能在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)讓現(xiàn)金成為吸引力較低的投資，就像上次衰退時(shí)那樣。

退休前還有幾十年時(shí)間存錢(qián)的投資者可以多冒些險(xiǎn)，通過(guò)波動(dòng)較大的投資對(duì)熊市加以利用。換句話說(shuō)就是，如果屬于這個(gè)群體，那么現(xiàn)在也許并不是把大量資金從股市轉(zhuǎn)移到債市的時(shí)候。畢竟時(shí)間會(huì)證明，過(guò)于努力地去捕捉市場(chǎng)高點(diǎn)和低點(diǎn)還不如較穩(wěn)定的買(mǎi)入并持有。但現(xiàn)在同樣不宜通過(guò)囤積高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、高收益的垃圾級(jí)債券來(lái)追逐較高的回報(bào)率。

馬瑟說(shuō)：“看到自己的投資收益率較低時(shí)，人們就會(huì)自然而然地想到‘也許我應(yīng)該配置更多的高收益資產(chǎn)’。這是一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤的決定，因?yàn)檫@樣做可能比較危險(xiǎn)?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文另一版本登載于《財(cái)富》雜志2019年10月刊，標(biāo)題為《債券買(mǎi)家陷入困境》。

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譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

What can bond investors do in such an environment? The confluence of low yields and a weakening economy leaves few palatable options. With bond prices high, now could be an opportune time to sell off riskier securities, such as higher-yield bonds, which?—not unlike growth-oriented tech stocks—tend to be more volatile in bear markets.

For investors near or in retirement, the safest approach may be to hunker down in U.S. Treasuries, higher-quality mortgage-backed bonds, and investment-grade corporate bonds in sectors with strong fundamentals, such as financials. Their yields may be low, sure, but other assets could end up performing far worse. Mather says the Fed could cut U.S. interest rates to near zero, even if it’s “highly unlikely” it would veer into the risky terrain of negative interest rates, which have become commonplace in Europe and Japan. That’s likely to leave cash a relatively unattractive investment for a while, just as it was during the last recession.

Investors who still have decades to save for retirement can stomach more risk and ride out bear markets in more volatile investments. Put another way: If you’re in this category, now’s probably not the time to move a lot of money from stocks into bonds. Trying too hard to time market highs and lows, after all, is a time-proven way to under?perform a steadier buy-and-hold approach. But now’s also no time to chase higher returns by loading up on higher-risk, higher-yield junk bonds.

“The natural inclination people have when they see lower yields in their portfolio is to think, ‘Maybe I should allocate more to high yield,’?” Mather says. “That’s the wrong decision because it can be more dangerous.”

A version of this article appears in the October 2019 issue of Fortune with the headline “Bonds Put Buyers in a Bind.”