公司利潤激增從而將股價推至接近歷史最高點的局面已經接近尾聲。

研究機構FactSet最近的一篇報告證明了這一點，它綜合了華爾街分析師對標普500指數今后每股收益的預測，并把它和這500家公司的實際盈利水平進行了對比。

FactSet發現，今年第一和第二季度的每股收益都低于去年同期水平，這是2016年1-2季度以來公司利潤首次連續兩個季度出現滑坡。分析師預計第三季度每股收益將大幅下降3.1%。如果情況確實如此，今年前三季度標普500指數的EPS就會減少1%左右。

FactSet的EPS數據剔除了特別費用，標普則同時記錄營業利潤和按照美國通用會計準則（GAAP）計算的凈利潤。標普的數據顯示，GAAP的凈利潤仍然在上升，只是和此前幾年的迅猛增長相比顯得步履蹣跚。今年第一季度EPS曲線開始變平，今年前三季度利潤僅上升了4%，遠低于2018年1~9月25%的同比增速。

為更合理地探究利潤走勢，我們對這兩組前三季度利潤數據進行了平均，Factset在此期間的EPS下跌了1%，標普500指數則是上升4%。也就是說，利潤增速只有1.5%左右，差不多和通脹率相當。

總體而言，標普和FactSet數據說明我們正在進入EPS持平或呈低個位數增長的新階段，此前三年半的兩位數增速已經在去年第三季度告終。這對股市來說可能是個壞消息，對美國經濟來說是個危險信號，它還表明貿易摩擦的代價已經出現，而且這個代價只會越來越大。

標普500指數公司保持EPS不變或使之略有增長的唯一手段是以前所未有的規模來回購股票，這尤其讓人擔心當前的利潤增速放緩局面。咨詢機構Yardeni Research的研究顯示，扣除新發行的股份，這500家公司將63%的營業利潤用于回購股票。我計算的結果是，股票回購金額大約相當于其GAAP凈利潤的55%。也就是說，美國的龍頭企業正在借助利潤以每年約2.5%的速度來縮減股本。

總之，美國頂尖企業用于回購股票和分紅的資金差不多相當于其凈利潤的95%。但眾所周知，它們借了一大筆錢進行回購的依據是自身股票在當前價位上非常值得買入，而這樣的觀點值得懷疑，因為標普500指數的市盈率已經高達21.7倍。貸款可能占這500公司股票回購資金的三分之一左右，其余三分之二資金則是它們25%的凈利潤。另外，它們還保留了約三分之一的GAAP凈利潤，并通過新工廠和研發設施重新將其用于擴張。

在這樣的背景下，不斷減速的利潤預示著三大問題：

? 標普500指數只能通過前所未有的股票回購讓EPS保持穩定或略有增長。這就意味著總利潤根本沒有增長，而在總利潤持平或下滑的同時，這些公司的總股本變少了。

? 為防止EPS下降，公司通過大量借款來回購股票。它們無法將新增利潤進一步用于回購，原因是利潤增長的不多，甚至沒有增長。相反，這些公司增加了負債，同時提升了股票回購資金在利潤中的占比。由于它們每年還會發行約1500億美元新股，其中包括公司高管行使期權產生的新股，所以這些公司的杠桿率特別高。由此產生的結果就是，它們每年用來回購股票的7000億美元資金只產生了5500億的作用，因為另外1500億美元抵銷了攤薄效應。公司把可用資金當做防止滑坡的手段，而所有這些債務提高了它們的風險。債務還帶來了新的利息負擔，從而在負債不斷增多之際壓縮了可以還債的現金流。

? 要注意的一個要點是這500家公司還保留了大約三分之一凈利潤，這是用于業務擴張的再投資。但這筆留存收益帶來的回報很少。這就是利潤方面的根本性變化。過去幾年，主要的增長動力是再投資利潤產生的高額收益，往往達到20%，甚至更多。現在看來，再投資利潤對這500家公司沒有任何幫助，也就是說，新增權益的回報率正在向零滑落。和此前相反的是，整體每股收益的緩慢上升完全來自于它們的巨額回購。

如果回報率一直處于低水平，利潤就不會增長，而且這種情況已經出現。華爾街為持續上漲的股價找出的依據就將不復存在。持平或下滑的利潤無法支撐當前的高估值，股價暴跌的可能性就會增大。上述利潤走勢源于兩大因素。第一個是周期。多年來，美國企業的商品服務產出一直在顯著增長，員工數量則在減少。與此同時，它們在工資方面還很吝嗇。這樣，越來越多的利潤到了股東而不是員工手里。在目前供給吃緊的就業市場中，工資水平迅速上升，而在經濟增長背景下已經達到極限的企業也開始快速補充員工。

第二個原因是貿易摩擦——美國對數以億計的中國商品加征10%~25%的關稅。這提高了商品價格，壓低了商品銷量，比如我們的公司在美國銷售的中國產鞋子和智能手機，它還提高了這些公司銷往美國乃至全世界的產品所需的關鍵零部件價格。中國的報復性關稅則打擊了美國出口，從大豆到鋼鐵都是如此。如果進一步對中國以及其他貿易伙伴提高關稅，美國公司就會在今后幾年進入危險的未知領域，這里的資本回報率更低，利潤壓力很大。

總的來看，很難想象我們在美國股市中享受的幸福時光怎么才能長久地延續下去。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

The explosion in corporate profits that lifted share prices to what are still near-record levels is ending.

That’s the evidence from a recent report issued by FactSet, the research firm that compiles Wall Street analysts’ estimates of future earnings-per-share for the S&P 500, and compares those predictions to what the 500 actually achieves.

FactSet found that EPS declined in both the first and second quarters of 2019 versus the same periods last year, marking the first consecutive, two-quarter retreat since Q1 and Q2 of 2016. Analysts expect a substantial fall of 3.1% for the Q3. If that forecast is correct, the earnings-per-share for the S&P 500 will slide by around 1 percentage point through the first three quarters of this year.

While the FactSet data eliminates special charges in calculating EPS, S&P records both operating and GAAP net income. Its data shows that GAAP earnings are still growing, though at a crawl compared with the headlong sprint over the last few years. The curve started to flatten in Q1, and over the first three quarters of this year, profits have expanded at just 4%, down from the 25% romp from from the January to September period in 2018 versus 2017.

To get a reasonable take on how profits are faring, we’ll average the two readings for the first three quarters: the FactSet decline of 1%, and the S&P’s 4% positive figure. That formula suggests growth in the range of just 1.5%, about equal to inflation.

Taken together, the S&P and FactSet data suggest we’re entering a new era of flat or low-single digit growth in EPS, following three-and-half years of double-digit increases through last year’s September quarter. That’s potentially bad news for stocks, a danger signal for the U.S. economy and a sign that the trade war is already begun exacting a toll that can only be expected to grow.

The slowdown is particularly worrisome because the S&P stalwarts have only succeeded in keeping EPS flat or rising slightly by repurchasing shares at record rates. According to research by Yardeni Research, the 500 are now spending the equivalent of 63% of their operating earnings on buybacks, net of newly issued shares. By my reckoning, that equates to roughly 55% of their GAAP net profits. Hence, America’s largest companies are marshaling that cash to shrink their share count by around 2.5% a year.

All told, America’s largest companies are paying out a sums equal to something like 95% of their net profits in repurchases and dividends. But it’s well known that they’re borrowing a big chunk of the buyback cash on the pretext that their stocks is a great buy at current prices, a questionable view since the S&P is selling at an expensive price-to-earnings multiple of 21.7. It’s likely that the 500 are using borrowed money for around one-third of the repurchases, and funding the rest with 25% of net profits. They’re also retaining around one-third of GAAP earnings, and plowing that money back into expansion via new plants and R&D facilities.

Given that backdrop, the flagging earnings picture points to three big problems:

? The S&P is only able to keep EPS flat or rising a touch by buying back shares at rates never before witnessed. That means total profits aren’t increasing at all; a flat or declining total are being split among fewer shares outstanding.

? To keep EPS from declining, companies are borrowing heavily to repurchase shares. They’re not able to fund the extra buybacks with rising profits because profits aren’t rising much if at all. Instead, they’re taking on more debt, and using a bigger share of their earnings, to pay for repurchases. The leveraging is especially severe because they’re also issuing around $150 billion in shares each year, including shares arising from newly-vested options from awards granted to the corporate brass. As a result, they’re spending $700 billion a year to reduce their share counts by the equivalent of $550 billion, since the other $150 billion goes to offsetting dilution. Adding all that debt makes companies riskier by sapping the cash available to cushion a downturn. It also exacts a burden in higher interest payments––curbing the cash flow that services their increasing debt.

? It’s important to note that the 500 are still retaining something like one-third of their net profits, money they’re re-investing to expand their businesses. But they’re earning minuscule returns on those dollars of retained earnings. That represents a fundamental shift in the profit picture. Over the past several years, the main driver was huge gains, often 20% or more, on profits plowed back into the business. Now, it appears that the 500 are getting no help from reinvested earnings, meaning returns on newly-added equity are trending towards zero. Instead, it’s the buyback splurge that accounts for all the entire, sluggish advance in earnings-per-share.

If those rates of returns stay low, and the shift is already underway, profits won’t grow. Wall Street will lose its rationale for ever-rising share prices. Flat or falling profits won’t support today’s rich valuations, raising the chances of a severe downdraft. That profit trend has two main causes. The first is cyclical. For years, U.S. enterprises produced a lot more goods and services with fewer people, and at the same time, skimped on wages, so that more and more gains went to shareholders rather than workers. In today’s tight labor market, wages are rising briskly, and companies, stretched to the limit in an expanding economy, have rapidly padded their workforces.

The second reason is the trade war that’s imposed tariffs of 10% to 25% on tens of billions of the Chinese imports. That’s raising prices, and lowering sales, for the Chinese shoes and smart phones that our companies sell in the U.S., and inflating prices of the components essential to the products they offer here and around the world. The levies China has imposed in retaliation are hammering our exports of everything from soybeans to steel. If the move towards erecting tariff walls, not just on China, but other trading partners as well, becomes entrenched, U.S. companies face perilous, uncharted territory of lower returns on capital, and intense pressure on profits, for years to come.

Taken together, it’s hard to see how the heady times we’ve enjoyed in the stock market continue much longer.