今年夏天，由于市場擔心美國國內經濟減速，股東們著實非常頭疼。但即便是在5月和8月市場兩次大幅下挫之后，投資者似乎仍然愿意高價買入股票——尤其是有巨大上漲潛力的股票。

按席勒市盈率來算，也即企業股價與經通脹調整后10年平均利潤之比，8月中旬標普500指數的市盈率略高于29倍，幾乎創下紀錄新高，僅低于1929年股市大漲和2000年互聯網繁榮時期。（大家可能還記得，之前兩次上漲的結局都不是很好。）

此外，隨著投資者預計當前牛市將不可避免地走向終結，共同基金和對沖基金等機構投資者都將資金集中在最有希望實現盈利增長的公司身上，進一步拉升了原本就已經熱門的相關股票價格。8月中旬，Visa和Facebook的市盈率都超過了30倍，Adobe和PayPal的市盈率約為50倍。

如此一來，沃倫·巴菲特式的價值投資者遇到了難題，他們看重強勁增長和合理價格結合形成的長期潛力。為了找出適合價值投資的公司，我們在查看了今年《財富》增長最快公司的排行榜后挑出了四家公司，既有強勁的盈利前景，估值又算不上多高。

硅谷銀行金融集團（SVB Financial Group）填補了不同尋常的細分市場：該集團是硅谷銀行的控股公司，硅谷銀行專門向主攻科技領域的風險資本投資者提供貸款。與其他地區性銀行相比，硅谷銀行的可變利率貸款組合規模龐大，可變利率貸款的利息收入會隨著現行利率下降而變少，所以很容易受到美聯儲大范圍降息的影響。在美聯儲7月降息之前，硅谷銀行下調了對2019年利息相關利潤的預測，部分投資者因此離場。過去一年時間里，該公司股價下跌了39%。

投資銀行Piper Jaffray的分析師布萊特·拉巴丁認為，最糟糕的局面可能已經過去。他表示，目前股價對利率調整的消息“過分敏感”。要看看哪些因素沒變？硅谷銀行的主要營收來源仍然保持強勁，今年二季度風險資本投資達到660億美元，預計將會創下有史以來第二高紀錄。目前該股票的估值情況與其他地區性銀行一致，其市盈率為9倍，但拉巴丁認為，一旦利率沖擊的影響消退，該股應該可以獲得溢價。

Centene是近年來全美增長最快的健康保險公司之一，但今年以來該公司股價下跌了15%，部分原因是許多投資者認為，該公司170億美元收購Medicare和Medicaid附屬醫療計劃提供商WellCare交易的出價過高。但是，質疑者忽視了收購的一大好處，可以獲得WellCare的Medicare Advantage客戶群。Jefferies的高級分析師大衛·溫德利將公私合營計劃稱為醫療保險領域中的“金發姑娘”，比單純的Medicaid計劃更有利潤前景，而且隨著越來越多的嬰兒潮一代加入Medicare計劃，其增長速度比大多數其他醫療計劃都要快。收購WellCare的交易正等待監管部門批準，溫德利預期收購完成后Centene的Medicare Advantage業務規模將擴大一倍。正因如此，分析師才會一致預測Centene未來三到五年的每股收益可實現年增長率18.6%，而對同期標普500指數的年增長率預測僅為5.7%。

Fears of a domestic slowdown and the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war created plenty of headaches for shareholders this summer. But even after dramatic market swoons in May and August, investors still seem willing to pay top dollar for stocks—especially those that promise substantial growth.

As measured by the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio, which compares companies’ share prices to the 10-year, inflation-adjusted average of their profits, the S&P 500 sat at just above 29 in mid-August. That’s higher than at nearly any other time on record, with the exceptions of the run-up in 1929 and the 2000 dotcom boom. (Neither one of those surges ended well, as you may recall.)

What’s more, as investors anticipate the inevitable end of the current bull market, institutional players like mutual funds and hedge funds have concentrated their money in the companies that seem like the safest bets for earnings growth. That has driven valuations for such crowded-trade stocks even higher—in mid-August, Visa and Facebook traded at more than 30 times earnings, while Adobe and PayPal traded at around 50 times earnings.

It all creates a conundrum for Warren ?Buffett–style value investors—the ones who seek the long-term potential that comes from a combination of robust growth and a reasonable price tag. To find such value candidates, we scoured this year’s list of Fortune’s Fastest-Growing Companies and found four that combine strong earnings outlooks with valuations that remain far below nosebleed territory.

SVB Financial Group fills an unusual niche: It’s the holding company of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which specializes in lending to tech-focused venture capital investors. Compared with other regional banks, SVB has a particularly large portfolio of ?variable-rate loans, whose interest payments fall when prevailing rates decline—which makes it vulnerable to broader cuts by the Federal Reserve. The run-up to the Fed’s July rate cut led SVB to lower its forecast for interest-related profits for 2019, and some investors fled; the stock is down 39% over the past year.

Piper Jaffray analyst Brett Rabatin believes the worst is likely over. At this point, he says, interest rate news “is more than priced in” to the stock. What hasn’t changed? The strength of SVB’s main revenue source. Venture capital investment reached $66 billion through the second quarter of this year, on pace for its second-best year ever. The stock is currently priced in line with other regional banks, at nine times earnings, but Rabatin believes it will deserve a premium once the interest rate shocks recede.

Centene has been among the country’s fastest-growing health insurance companies in recent years. Its shares have fallen 15% year to date, however, in part because many investors believe it overpaid in its $17 billion purchase of WellCare, a provider of Medicare- and Medicaid-affiliated health care plans. But skeptics miss one of the acquisition’s big benefits: WellCare’s pool of Medicare Advantage customers. Jefferies senior analyst David Windley calls these public-private hybrid plans the “Goldilocks” of the health insurance space—more profitable than Medicaid plans, and growing faster than most other health plan categories as more baby boomers age into Medicare. The purchase of WellCare, which is pending regulatory approval, will double the size of Centene’s Medicare Advantage business, Windley calculates. That’s a major reason that analysts’ consensus estimates show Centene’s earnings per share growing 18.6% annually for the next three to five years, compared with just 5.7% for the S&P 500.

有些公司的估值較低是因為處于商業周期中的低谷。半導體設備供應商Lam Research制造的元件用于多款芯片，包括為iPhone和一系列人工智能應用使用的芯片。該行業的起伏基本上與創新繁榮和供應過剩對應。此前兩個財年Lam實現了驚人增長，但在截至6月30日的2019財年其銷售額下降了13%。不過，隨著投資者預期下一輪反彈即將到來，其股價已經開始回升。過去一個月里，NAND存儲芯片的價格自2017年以來首次上漲，該類芯片在Lam營收中占近一半。投行KeyBanc Capital Markets的分析師韋斯頓·特維格表示：“這是個好兆頭?！彼A計，2020年Lam的營收將增長12%。

在醫藥股中，有時要對不被看好的藥物反向押注才能夠撿到“便宜”?？偛课挥隈R里蘭州的Supernus Pharmaceuticals把未來押在兩種旨在治療注意缺陷多動障礙的藥物上，其中一種是被稱為SPN-812的非興奮劑，試驗顯示一周內就可以緩解癥狀。該進展相當重大，因為類似的非興奮劑可能需要一個月或更長時間才能夠生效。但是，投資者對該藥III期臨床試驗有些不安，因為試驗結果顯示提高劑量并不能夠獲得更明顯的療效。在過去一年里，Supernus的股價下跌了47%。

投行Janney的分析師艾斯特·洪認為，市場過于悲觀：盡管想通過提高劑量改善療效受阻，但SPN-812和Supernus旗下的另一款治療注意缺陷多動障礙的藥都有明顯療效。艾斯特·洪認為，SPN-812能夠按預期獲得美國食品與藥品管理局的批準，并在明年推向市場。從長遠來看，該藥市場價值可能達到10億美元。屆時可能有更多的投資者將目光轉向Supernus，畢竟當前該公司的市值僅為15億美元。（財富中文網）

本文另一版本登載于《財富》雜志2019年9月刊，標題是《探秘撿便宜大佬的俱樂部》。

譯者：艾倫

審校：夏林

Some companies sport low valuations because of where they sit in their business cycle. Lam Research makes equipment found in many kinds of chips, including those that power iPhones and a range of artificial intelligence applications. It’s an industry that rises and falls on innovation booms and supply gluts. After stratospheric growth in its previous two fiscal years, Lam’s sales fell 13% in its fiscal 2019, which ended June 30. But its stock has begun to rally as investors anticipate the next rebound. Prices for NAND memory chips, which account for nearly half of Lam’s revenues, have risen over the past month for the first time since 2017. “It’s a good sign,” says KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Weston Twigg, who forecasts a 12% rise in revenues for Lam in 2020.

In pharmaceutical stocks, finding a bargain can mean making a contrarian bet on a disfavored drug. Maryland-based Supernus Pharmaceuticals has staked much of its future on two drugs designed to fight ADHD. One, a non-stimulant dubbed SPN-812, has shown the ability to alleviate symptoms within a week during trials—a big differentiator, since similar non-?stimulants can require a month or more to take effect. Investors were unnerved, however, by the drug’s Phase III clinical trials, in which higher doses had no additional positive effect. Over the past year, Supernus’s share price has sunk 47%.

Esther Hong, an analyst for Janney, argues that the market has been too pessimistic: Despite the dosage hiccup, both SPN-812 and Supernus’s other ADHD drug have shown positive results. Hong believes SPN-812 could be a billion-dollar drug in the long term if, as anticipated, it wins FDA approval and launches next year. That could offer a portfolio-burnishing boost for investors in a company with a current market capitalization of just $1.5 billion.

A version of this article appears in the September 2019 issue of Fortune with the headline “Inside the Bargain Hunter’s Club.”