很多人可能不知道保羅·沃爾克是何許人也。20世紀(jì)80年代，他曾經(jīng)抽著雪茄走進(jìn)國(guó)會(huì)山，一邊撓著腦袋，一邊解釋他打算怎樣用極高的利率來(lái)扼制失控的通脹。自那時(shí)起，人們對(duì)這位美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席的崇敬之情便有如滔滔江水，連綿不絕。

美國(guó)人對(duì)沃爾克的崇敬，慢慢地演化成了對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的迷信。金融市場(chǎng)相信，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一定能夠保持股市的正常運(yùn)行和國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展（雖然嚴(yán)格地說(shuō)，這兩者也并不算美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的職責(zé)）。不過(guò)從美國(guó)當(dāng)前的證券和債券價(jià)格看，在即將于7月30日和31日召開(kāi)的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)下次會(huì)議上，現(xiàn)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾必將決定降息至少25個(gè)基點(diǎn)，這差不多已經(jīng)是板上釘釘了。

但是，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)真的全盤掌握了當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)嗎?

ACP投資集團(tuán)的首席市場(chǎng)策略師弗蘭克·農(nóng)齊亞托表示：“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的展望有些后知后覺(jué)了，它至少還應(yīng)該降息兩到三次。國(guó)債市場(chǎng)正在強(qiáng)烈呼吁他們降息，但他們的動(dòng)作太慢了。”

當(dāng)然，這也不是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)第一次行動(dòng)或者反應(yīng)遲緩了。

2007年6月，美國(guó)聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)（FOMC）的成員發(fā)布了他們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的預(yù)測(cè)。接下來(lái)幾年，實(shí)際GDP的預(yù)測(cè)范圍和真實(shí)數(shù)據(jù)分別如下（取消了三個(gè)最高和最低預(yù)測(cè)，這種方法又稱為“中位趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)”）：

2007年：預(yù)測(cè)值：2.4%~2.5%，實(shí)際值：1.9%

2008年：預(yù)測(cè)值：1.8%~2.5%，實(shí)際值：-0.1%

2009年：預(yù)測(cè)值：2.3%~2.7%，實(shí)際值：-2.5%

2010年：預(yù)測(cè)值：2.5%~2.6%，實(shí)際值：2.6%

他們完全沒(méi)有預(yù)測(cè)到近在眼前的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。

公平地說(shuō)，當(dāng)時(shí)也沒(méi)有任何人預(yù)測(cè)到經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)已經(jīng)迫在眉睫。而且，時(shí)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席的本·伯南克的反應(yīng)，可能確實(shí)防止了經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)演變成另一場(chǎng)“大蕭條”。不過(guò)上面的例子也表明，要想預(yù)測(cè)像美國(guó)這樣一個(gè)復(fù)雜經(jīng)濟(jì)體的走向，難度會(huì)有多高，2007年的事情就是明證，更惶論預(yù)測(cè)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的走向。

在美國(guó)終于走出經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)后，F(xiàn)OMC在2011年6月又發(fā)布了預(yù)測(cè)。這次，實(shí)際GDP的預(yù)測(cè)范圍和實(shí)際值分別為：

2011年：預(yù)測(cè)值：2.7%~2.9%，實(shí)際值：1.6%

2012年：預(yù)測(cè)值：3.3%~3.7%，實(shí)際值：2.2%

2013年：預(yù)測(cè)值：3.5%~4.2%，實(shí)際值：1.7%。

這個(gè)準(zhǔn)確率跟瞎蒙差不多。

CF&P公司的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家丹·米切爾表示：“我認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家——不管是公立機(jī)構(gòu)的，還是私營(yíng)企業(yè)的，在預(yù)測(cè)短期走勢(shì)上都做得很糟糕。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家更擅于預(yù)測(cè)長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)，因?yàn)樗旧鲜怯缮a(chǎn)力和人口決定的——此外還有預(yù)測(cè)哪些因素會(huì)導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)力上升或下降。”

同樣的問(wèn)題也發(fā)生在通脹上。在5月1日的FOMC會(huì)議后，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾貌似對(duì)當(dāng)前的通脹率感到困惑，因?yàn)樗俅蔚陀?%的既定目標(biāo)。“一季度的低通脹是沒(méi)有預(yù)料到的……可能是出于某種暫時(shí)或特殊的原因。”

現(xiàn)在，F(xiàn)OMC又發(fā)布了最近（2019年6月）的一份經(jīng)濟(jì)和通脹預(yù)測(cè)。你可能想知道，其中有多少預(yù)測(cè)是基于智慧和經(jīng)驗(yàn)的，又有多少預(yù)測(cè)是一廂情愿的。

根據(jù)其預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)實(shí)際GDP今后三年的中位預(yù)測(cè)值分別是：

2019年：2.1%

2020年：2%

2021年：1.8%

與此同時(shí)，這三年美國(guó)個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出通脹率的預(yù)測(cè)值分別為1.5%、1.9%和2%。

至于在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩、工資增長(zhǎng)差強(qiáng)人意的大環(huán)境下，2%的目標(biāo)通脹率如何能達(dá)到，F(xiàn)OMC則并沒(méi)有給出解釋。

但是，當(dāng)前要想預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的走向，進(jìn)而相應(yīng)地制定利率政策，最大的挑戰(zhàn)可能并非在于GDP、通脹、工資、企業(yè)收益甚至全球利率等因素，而是在于另一個(gè)單獨(dú)的因素。

上周，鮑威爾在外交關(guān)系協(xié)會(huì)接受采訪時(shí)表示：“我們已經(jīng)聽(tīng)到了很多關(guān)于貿(mào)易問(wèn)題的擔(dān)憂，實(shí)際上，在上一份黃皮書（6月5日）中，貿(mào)易問(wèn)題被提起的此數(shù)已經(jīng)比上次翻了一番……也有很多關(guān)于加征關(guān)稅問(wèn)題的討論，這就是不確定因素的所在，也是企業(yè)較為關(guān)注的問(wèn)題。”

不過(guò)鮑威爾也表示，關(guān)稅問(wèn)題目前不會(huì)給美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)重大威脅，因?yàn)殛P(guān)稅并沒(méi)有高到嚇人的地步，而且關(guān)稅帶來(lái)的成本增長(zhǎng)是一次性的，不會(huì)造成持續(xù)性的影響。

當(dāng)然，并非所有分析師都這么樂(lè)觀。FXStreet公司的高級(jí)分析師約瑟夫·特雷維薩尼指出：“很多人都在擔(dān)心，如果中美貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端、英國(guó)脫歐等事件沒(méi)有得到好的解決，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將朝什么方向發(fā)展。最近，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的速度可能會(huì)顯著加劇，企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者都會(huì)控制開(kāi)支，導(dǎo)致歐洲和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步放緩——而這反過(guò)來(lái)又會(huì)影響到全世界，包括美國(guó)。”

因此，上周末中美兩國(guó)宣布暫停征收新的關(guān)稅，并繼續(xù)進(jìn)行貿(mào)易談判，這對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)非常好的消息。不過(guò)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)面臨的挑戰(zhàn)依然十分嚴(yán)峻，畢竟從歷史紀(jì)錄來(lái)看，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)GDP增長(zhǎng)率和通脹的預(yù)測(cè)很少準(zhǔn)過(guò)。而且就算它對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外一些其他因素做好了應(yīng)對(duì)準(zhǔn)備，只要某人心血來(lái)潮發(fā)了一條凌晨的推特，就都有可能突然轉(zhuǎn)向。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

Ever since the towering figure of Paul Volcker would march up to Capitol Hill to smoke a cigar, scratch his head, and defend sky-high interest rates to break runaway inflation, public utterances by the reigning Fed chief have been treated with Yoda-like reverence.

The reverence extends to the Fed itself, which the financial markets trust to keep the stock market going and the economy expanding (even though technically that’s not its job). In fact, right now it’s practically built into equity and bond prices that the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least 25 basis points at its next meeting on July 30-31.

But is the Fed really on top of what’s going on in the economy?

“The Fed’s outlook is 2-3 rate cuts behind the curve,” says Frank Nunziato, chief market strategist of the ACP Investment Group. “The Treasury market is screaming for them to cut rates and they’re moving too slow.”

It wouldn’t be the first time the Fed was slow to act – or react.

In June of 2007, members of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) issued their economic projections. The forecast range for real GDP (The three highest and lowest projects were dropped, called central tendency projections) and the actual for the following years:

--2007: 2.4% -- 2.5%. Actual: 1.9%

--2008: 1.8%-- 2.5% Actual: -0.1%

--2009: 2.3% --2.7% Actual: -2.5%

--2010: 2.5% -- 2.6% Actual: 2.6%

They totally missed the Great Recession.

In all fairness, just about everybody else did, too. And the response by Ben Bernanke and his cohorts probably prevented the Great Recession from becoming another Great Depression. But the forecasting miss proves just how hard it is to predict the direction of something as complicated as the American – not to mention global – economy. And it’s especially hard to predict when the direction changes suddenly, as it did back in 2007.

But after finally coming out of the Great Recession, here’s what the FOMC saw coming in its June 2011 forecast. Look at the forecast ranges for real GDP and the actual real GDP growth, respectively:

2.7% to 2.9% versus 1.6% in 2011

3.3% to 3.7% versus 2.2% in 2012

3.5% to 4.2% versus 1.7% in 2013

Not even close.

“As a general rule,” says Dan Mitchell, economist at CF&P, “I think economists -- public, private, doesn't matter -- do a lousy job trying to guess the short-run twists and turns. We do a better job of estimating long-run trends -- basically driven by productivity and population -- as well as speculating on what might nudge productivity up or down.”

A similar thing may be going on right now with a second component, inflation. After the May 1 FOMC meeting, Fed Chief Powell sounded puzzled by the rate of inflation, once again falling below the targeted rate of 2%. “The weak inflation performance in the 1st quarter was not expected...some of it appears to be transitory or idiosyncratic.”

Now that the FOMC has released its most recent (June 2019) forecast for the economy and inflation, one might wonder how much of it is based on wisdom and experience, and how much is done with fingers crossed.

The projected median change in real GDP:

2.1% in 2019

2.0% in 2020

1.8% in 2021

The PCE inflation is 1.5%, 1.9% and 2.0%, respectively for those years.

The FOMC doesn’t explain how the elusive inflation target rate of 2% will be reached in an economy that is slowing, and where wages have only grown modestly.

But the biggest challenge right now in predicting the direction of the economy, and as a result interest rate policy, may lie in a separate component – not GDP, inflation, wages, corporate earnings, or even global interest rates.

Chairman Powell summed it up in an interview last week at the Council on Foreign Relations. “We’ve been hearing quite a bit about concerns about trade,” he said, “In fact, the number of mentions of trade concerns doubled in the last Beige Book (June 5th)… there is discussion of much greater tariffs, and I think that’s where the uncertainty is and that’s where the concerns are on the part of business.”

But current tariffs, Powell said, would not represent a major threat to the American economy right now because they’re not terribly high and they are a one-time cost increase, not an ongoing one.

Not all analysts are so sure about that. “There are large concerns about where the world economy might be headed if the U.S.-China trade dispute and Brexit are not settled on amicable terms,” says Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet. “The recent slowdown in the global economy could become substantially worse, with businesses and consumers holding back on spending and further retarding weak growth in Europe and China -- which would in turn impact the entire world, including the United States.”

So the announcement over the weekend that China and the U.S. would withhold new tariffs and continue trade talks may be very good news for the global economy. But the challenge continues for a Fed that has a spotty record of predicting traditional economic factors such as GDP growth and inflation, while trying to react to global and domestic factors that could change direction at the drop of an early-morning tweet.