一次讓人心驚肉跳的IPO，一個還不穩(wěn)定的商業(yè)模式，一家目前還看不到利潤的公司。

這三個元素湊到一起，讓做空Lyft似乎成了一件再正常不過的事情，對吧？很多投資者也是這樣想的。據(jù)S3 Partners公司的執(zhí)行董事伊霍爾·達薩尼斯基稱，截止到上周四，Lyft公司已經(jīng)有41%的股票被做空，價值約合9.37億美元。相比之下，特斯拉的投資者雖然也是高度分裂的，但特斯拉的股票只有23%被做空。

IHS Markit公司的塞繆爾·皮爾森指出，相比那些默默無聞的公司，人們往往“更有興趣做空一家知名公司的IPO。”由于IPO新股上市當日價格就會暴漲，很多賣空者購買IPO的新股，都是為了在幾天或幾周內(nèi)變現(xiàn)賺一筆差價。當然也不排除一些投資者確實認為這家公司的估值被高估了，并且押注于長期股價必然會回調(diào)。不管怎樣，由于大家做空Lyft的興趣高漲，在IPO后的幾天里，Lyft每股借貸成本的上漲幅度達到了股價的100%，Lyft成了美國做空成本最高的一只股票（確切地說，是在所有有500萬美元以上股票被借貸出去的上市股中做空成本最高的一只股票）。不過最近，隨著越來越多的投資者將股票用于借貸，這一數(shù)字略微有所下降。

與此同時，做空Lyft股票的人也在緊盯著兩件即將到來的大事：一件有可能提振Lyft的股價，另一件則有可能抑制Lyft的股價。首先，一般在IPO的25天后，所謂的“平靜期”就結(jié)束了，新上市公司的一些最大的支持者——也就是他們的承銷商可能會對這只股票給出新的評級。而分析師們對于自家公司承銷的股票，當然是會傾向于給出看漲評級（Lyft的承銷商是Jefferies、瑞士信貸和摩根大通）。還記得2017年Snap公司（Snapchat就是他家的產(chǎn)品）的IPO嗎？一開始，沒有參加新股發(fā)行的分析師很多給出了“持有”或“賣出”評級。等到“平靜期”一結(jié)束，就是鋪天蓋地的“買入”和“持有”。受此影響，Snap的股票上漲了5%。

之后再過不久，Lyft股票的“鎖定期”也將結(jié)束了。根據(jù)相關(guān)規(guī)定，上市公司高管和大股東在IPO之后的180天內(nèi)不得售出自己持有的公司股票。但如果“鎖定期”結(jié)束后，這些持有人大量拋售股票，必將進一步抑制股價，使做空者更加得利。

當然，也并非所有投機資金都在做空Lyft。Citron Research公司的安德魯·萊夫特是一位知名的賣空者，他就在買進Lyft的股票。上周五，萊夫特寫了一篇研究報告，稱做空Lyft的人很“業(yè)余”。他表示，Lyft的季度活躍用戶在不斷增長，市場本身有巨大增長空間。他還表示，目前網(wǎng)約車只占了乘用車行駛總里程數(shù)的1%。他對客戶寫道：“僅僅因為虧錢，就做空主宰了大趨勢的顛覆性創(chuàng)新公司，這樣做肯定會破產(chǎn)的。”

S3 Partners公司的執(zhí)行董事伊霍爾·達薩尼斯基指出，不管怎樣，“可以預(yù)見，在很長一段時間里，Lyft都是市場中一個重要的做空對象。”雖然對于投資者而言，應(yīng)該做空還是做多尚無定論，但有一件事是肯定的——據(jù)《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）報道，卡爾·伊坎在IPO前已經(jīng)售出了他持有的2.7%的Lyft股份，從出手時機看，他才是所有人中的大贏家。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

A volatile IPO. An uncertain business model. No profits in sight.

Shorting Lyft sounds like a no-brainer, right? Plenty of investors think so: As of last Thursday roughly 41% of Lyft shares, worth some $937 million, were being shorted according to S3 Partners Managing Director Ihor Dusaniwsky. In contrast, that figure is closer to 23% for Tesla—another company that has divided investors.

There is often “more interest on being short in a popular IPO” than in a lesser known one, said IHS Markit’s Samuel Pierson. As IPOs are priced to pop on the first day, short sellers may buy in the hopes of catching a short term sell off in the coming days and weeks. Or, they may truly believe the company is overvalued and be placing a long term bet that the stock will correct. Either way the widespread interest has made shorting Lyft a costly proposition: In the days following its IPO a week ago, the cost to borrow a share of Lyft rose above 100% of the price of a share itself—making it the most expensive U.S. company to short (among any stock with over $5 million worth of shares being lent out), according to Pierson. More recently, that figure has dipped as more investors have made their shares available for lending.

In the meantime Lyft short sellers are certainly looking ahead to two upcoming important events: one that may give the stock a boost, and one that may depress it. Roughly 25 days after an IPO, the so-called “quiet period” comes to an end. That will allow some of a newly public company’s greatest cheerleaders, their underwriters, to put out new ratings on the stock. And (surprise, surprise) analysts at the underwriting banks (in Lyft’s case, that includes Jefferies, Credit Suisse, and J.P. Morgan) tend to see upside in the firms their companies underwrite. (Remember Snapchat maker, Snap’s 2017 IPO? Early analysts that didn’t take part in the offering tended to promote “hold” or “sell” ratings on the stock. But when the quiet period came to end, it was a sea of “buys” and “holds,” boosting Snap’s stock 5%.)

Then comes the so-called “l(fā)ock-up period” expiration. Executives and major shareholders at Lyft are barred from selling stock in the company 180 days immediately following the IPO due to this clause. But if these owners sell shares en masse when the period ends, flooding the market and depressing the stock price, it could be a boon to short sellers.

But not all the smart money is betting against Lyft. One prominent short seller, Citron Research’s Andrew Left, is buying Lyft shares. On last Friday, Left authored a research report dubbing Lyft the “Amateur Short,” noting Lyft’s rising number of quarterly active riders, as well as how much larger the market could grow. Ride sharing, he noted, currently accounts for only 1% of miles travelled. As he wrote to clients, “Shorting disruptive companies that dominate a megatrend simply because they lose money is a sure way to go broke.”

Either way, “We can expect Lyft to be a significant short in the market for long time,” said S3 Partners Managing Director Ihor Dusaniwsky. And while and long vs. short debate rages on, one thing’s for sure: Carl Icahn, who reportedly sold his 2.7% stake of Lyft ahead of the IPO for about $550 million, according to the Wall Street Journal, may have had the best timing of all.