隨著2018年年底籠罩在市場上空的幾片烏云逐漸消散，今年一季度，美國多數個股全線反彈，在上周五收盤后，美股終于走完了近十年來最揚眉吐氣的一個季度。

標準普爾500指數在上周五收于2834.40點，當日上漲0.7%，今年一季度的漲幅達到13.1%。這也是自2009年三季度起，美股從全球金融危機中緩慢復蘇以來，標普500指數表現最好的一個季度。同時它也是1998年以來，標普500指數表現最堅挺的一個季度。

與此同時，據雅虎財經報道，今年第一季度，道瓊斯工業平均指數上升了11.2%，納斯達克指數上漲了16.5%。

和歷次股市反彈一樣，今年一季度，小盤股的表現要好于大盤股，小盤股的漲幅超過了20%，而大盤股的漲幅也達到了13%。在標普500指數中，表現最好的行業分別是信息技術（上漲18.2%）、房地產（上漲16.8%）和能源行業（上漲15.6%）。醫療（上漲4.9%）和金融行業（上漲7.6%）則未能跑贏總體市場。

在標普500的大盤股中，漲幅最大的個股主要集中在芯片行業，如賽靈思、AMD和英偉達分別上漲了50%、43%和35%。處于轉型階段的通用電氣上漲了42%， Netflix上漲了39%。在中盤股中，美容用品Coty上漲了81%，Chipotle Mexican Grill上漲了69%，施樂上漲了63%。

當然，也不是所有股票都有這樣好的運氣。由于收益狀況不佳，又下調了分紅，卡夫亨氏的股價大跌25%。制藥企業百健的股價下跌了21%。在亞馬遜等電商的擠壓下，梅西百貨的股價下跌了19%，藥品零售商CVS Health也下跌了18%。

今年一季度的大漲，也在很大程度上抵消了上季度的股市大跌。去年下半年，由于有跡象表明美聯儲2019年將持續加息，加之中美貿易戰愈演愈烈，道指從2018年10月3日到12月24日下跌了18.8%。這種恐慌性清倉導致去年第四季度美國股民總共損失了4.6萬億美元。

從今年1月起，籠罩在美國經濟和金融市場上的陰云逐漸消散，中美針鋒相對的緊張局面有所緩解，美聯儲在3月也放出信息，暗示今年不太可能加息。這些利好消息，加上市場意識到去年年底的股災屬于反應過激，共同推動了本輪美股的大漲。

Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management公司的CEO菲爾·布蘭卡托表示：“去年12月股市的非理性波動，完全是由年度稅務賣壓效應、算法以及股民對新聞事件的極度情緒化反應推動的。”

布蘭卡托認為，這也說明美股此次的強勢復蘇不會持續太久。“在這樣的環境下，經濟還沒有強勁到可以使股市實現12%的回報率。”（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

U.S. stocks finished their best quarter in nearly a decade on last Friday, as several clouds hanging over the financial markets at the end of 2018 dissipated enough to prompt a strong rebound for most shares.

The S&P 500 closed last Friday at 2834.40, up 0.7% on the day and up 13.1% for the first quarter of 2019. It marked the strongest quarter for the benchmark stock index since the third-quarter of 2019, when stocks were recovering in the wake of a global financial crisis that led to the Great Recession. It was also the best first-quarter for the index since 1998.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, rose 11.2% in the first quarter, while the Nasdaq gained 16.5%, according to Yahoo Finance.

As often happens with stock rebounds, smaller-cap stocks outperformed the broader market, with micro-cap stocks gaining more than 20% and large-cap stocks rising 13%. Among the S&P 500’s sectors, information technology (+18.2%), real estate (+16.8%), and energy (+15.6%) performed the best, while health care (+4.9%) and financials (+7.6%) underperformed the overall market.

Among large-cap stocks in the S&P 500, some of the strongest gains were seen by chipmakers such as Xilinx, AMD, and Nvidia, up 50%, 43%, and 35%, respectively. General Electric, which is undergoing a turnaround, gained 42%, while Netflix advanced 39%. Among mid-caps, beauty-supply company Coty rose 81%, Chipotle Mexican Grill gained 69%, and Xerox rose 63%.

Not all stocks enjoyed the broad-based rebound in the quarter. Kraft Heinz declined 25% after slashing dividends in the wake of disappointing earnings, while drugmaker Biogen fell 21%. Macy’s dropped 19% and CVS Health fell 18% as large retail chains continue to struggle in the era of Amazon and e-commerce.

2019’s first quarter erased most of the losses posted during the previous quarter. The Dow slumped 18.8% between Oct. 3 and Dec. 24 of 2018, amid signs that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates through 2019 and the threat of a looming U.S.-China trade war. That dramatic selloff cause American households to lose a collective $4.6 trillion in the value of their stock holdings during the fourth quarter.

Starting in January, the clouds that hung over the economy and the financial markets began to clear up, with trade tensions between China and the U.S. easing somewhat and the Fed signaling March it’s unlikely to raise rates at all this year. Those developments, coupled with a sense that the late-2018 selloff had been overdone, powered this quarter’s rebound.

“The irrational moment of December was just that, a moment driven by tax selling, algorithms and people being extremely emotional about the headlines,” said Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management.

For Blancato, that serves as a warning that the rally may not last much longer. “The economy is not strong enough to drive a 12% return on the stock market in an environment like this.”