在比特幣領域，神秘的“鯨魚”，也就是那些大量持有比特幣的人，長期以來一直是投機和焦慮的源泉。現在，有人對這些“比特幣鯨魚”的身份及其對市場的影響展開了新的研究。

加密貨幣數據公司Chainalysis的研究考察了32只最大的“比特幣鯨魚”，他們持有的比特幣略高于100萬枚，而迄今為止開采出來的比特幣總量約1700萬枚。其中，最小的一只“鯨魚”握有約1.2萬枚比特幣，最大的持有量超過8.5萬枚。按現價計算，二者所持比特幣的價值分別為7500萬美元和5.41億美元。

Chainalysis將這32只“比特幣鯨魚”分為四類，其中包括三只“犯罪鯨”。他們在幾年前發家致富，當時比特幣最為人知的作用是在互聯網上進行非法交易。Chainalysis懷疑其中一只“犯罪鯨”目前正在坐牢。

在投資者中，最吸引人的一類可能是九只“交易鯨”，他們在2017年進入比特幣市場，此后一直活躍地進行買賣。據Chainalysis的經濟學家吉姆·格勞爾介紹，和流行觀點相反，這些“交易鯨”在比特幣價格下跌時通常都會買入，而不是賣出，而且沒有證據表明他們在協同行動。

這否定了許多比特幣觀察人士的猜測，即這些藏在暗處的“比特幣鯨魚”操縱著比特幣的價格。有三只“交易鯨”只在亞洲交易所買賣比特幣，Chainalysis關于“交易鯨”的發現也凸顯出他們的數量較為稀少。格勞爾說，許多出現在互聯網“土豪榜”上的比特幣錢包帶動業余人士大肆投機，但它們根本是不“比特幣鯨魚”。相反，這些錢包是交易所及其他商業機構在日常金融操作中存放比特幣的地方。

另外兩類“比特幣鯨魚”在市場的曝光度和“交易鯨”不同。“礦工鯨”是在比特幣還很容易開采而且開采成本較低時囤積大量比特幣的個人（只是有些“礦工鯨”可能通過采礦以外的手段獲得了比特幣）。Chainalysis說他們也會出售了一部分比特幣，但這種情況很少見，這類“鯨魚”傾向于長期持有（比特幣界把持有的英文拼寫為“HODL”）。

另外五只“失蹤鯨”是在早期囤積了大量比特幣的人，但由于他們的比特幣錢包沒有任何動作，這幾位可能已經過世或者弄丟了自己的錢包鑰匙。去年《財富》雜志曾報道，Chainalysis通過研究稱近400萬枚比特幣已永久性丟失，而比特幣的供應上限為2100萬枚。為了在本次研究中找出這些“比特幣鯨魚”，Chainalysis并沒有只盯住擁有大量比特幣的錢包。該公司用它稱為“co-spend”分析的方法來考察公開的比特幣區塊鏈賬本，從而找到了一系列看來屬于同一ID的錢包。

格勞爾表示，Chainalysis的“比特幣鯨魚”研究設定了一些重要的前提條件。比如一些擁有多個錢包的“鯨魚”或許很狡猾，可以避開該公司的“co-spend”檢索。

最關鍵的前提是此項研究完全沒有考慮最大的那只“比特幣鯨魚”——中本聰，也就是一直隱姓埋名的比特幣創始人。中本聰的比特幣分散在許多錢包中，總量超過100萬枚。Chainalysis假定這些比特幣再也找不回來了。

此項研究得出了怎樣的結論呢？那就是“比特幣鯨魚”在市場中的作用也許被夸大了。這32只“比特幣鯨魚”控制著大約6%的比特幣供應量，如果考慮那些丟失的比特幣，這個數字則會降至4.6%。更重要的是，他們的錢包中只有一小部分經常參與市場交易，而且在買賣比特幣時，這些錢包的行為看來是在支持比特幣的長期價值。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

In the world of Bitcoin, mysterious “whales”—individuals who own large hoards of the digital currency—have long been a source of speculation and anxiety. Now, new research sheds light on the identity of the whales and their impact on the market.

A study by the crypto forensics firm Chainalysis examined the 32 biggest whales, who together hold a little more than 1 million of the approximately 17 million Bitcoins mined to date. The smallest whale in the sample holds around 12,000 Bitcoins while the biggest holds more than 85,000 Bitcoins—respectively worth $75 million and $541 million at recent prices.

As the chart above shows, the firm classified the 32 whales into four categories. These include three “criminal whales” who made their fortune years ago when Bitcoin was best known as a currency to conduct illegal transactions on the Internet. Chainalysis suspects that one of these whales is currently in prison.

For investors, though, the most intriguing category will likely be the nine “trader whales” who entered the Bitcoin market in 2017, and who have been actively buying and selling. According to Chainalysis economist Kim Grauer, contrary to popular perception, the trader whales have typically been buyers not sellers when Bitcoin’s price dips and there is no evidence of them acting in concert.

This undercuts the suspicion of many Bitcoin watchers that shadowy whales are manipulating prices. The Chainalysis findings about the trader whales, three of which only trade on Asian exchanges, also highlights how there are relatively few of them. Grauer says that many Bitcoin wallets that appear on Internet “rich lists,” and are the source of intense speculation by amateurs, are not whales at all. Instead, they are balances held by exchanges and other commercial institutions in the course of their day-to-day financial operations.

The other two whale categories do not have the same presence on the market as the trader whales. The “miner whales” are individuals who amassed large quantities of Bitcoin at a time when it was easy and inexpensive to mine (though some may have received it by means other than mining). Chainalysis says they sell portions of their stash but only rarely and this group is inclined to hold (“HODL” in Bitcoin parlance) it for the long term.

The five “lost whales” are individuals who amassed large quantities of Bitcoin in the early days but, based on a total lack of wallet activity, have likely died or lost the key to their wallets. As Fortune reported last year, a study by Chainalysis concluded that nearly 4 million Bitcoins, of a total supply that will one day equal 21 million, are lost forever.

To identify the whales in its study, Chainalysis did not simply look at wallets holding large amounts of Bitcoin. Instead, the company applied what it calls a “co-spend” analysis to Bitcoin’s public blockchain ledger, which let it identify clusters of wallets that appear to belong to the same individual.

Chainalysis’s whale study comes with some important provisos, says Grauer. This includes the possibility of some whales with multiple wallets being sneaky enough to avoid the company’s co-spend detection.

The most significant proviso is that the study doesn’t include the biggest whale of all: Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous founder of Bitcoin. Satoshi’s fortune, scattered across many wallets, amounts to more than a million Bitcoins, which Chainalysis presumes to be lost forever.

The bottom line? The role of whales in the Bitcoin market may be overstated. The top 32 whales control around 6% of the supply, but that figure drops to 4.6% when lost Bitcoins are taken into account. More importantly, only a minority of these whales are regularly active in the market and, when they are, they appear to behave in ways that supports the long-term value of Bitcoin.