是不是該抄底全球股市第一大暴跌股了？

對于關注騰訊股票的人來說，回答這個問題迫在眉睫。這家中國互聯網巨頭股價史無前例的暴跌正在加劇，上周四6.8%的大崩盤后，騰訊股票總價相比今年1月末，已蒸發2520億美元，成為史上最大規模的股東財富縮水事件。騰訊股票是新興市場中持有率最廣的股票之一，已經史無前例地連跌10個交易日。

正當世界各地的投資者熱議科技股領跑全球股市上漲的好日子是否已經到頭了，騰訊的行情恰好成了一個關鍵的市場風向標。從公司2004年首次公開發售股票到今年1月，投資回報率高達67000%，遠高于全球股市的任何一個大盤股，騰訊股票今年的跳水也同樣“引領”了全球科技股的暴跌潮，無論是紐交所還是東京證券交易所的股票。一些證券經理說，現在還遠沒有到底。

“騰訊是家好公司，我們也仍然喜歡這家公司，但現在它簡直包含了投資人避之不及的全部元素。，”巴黎Constance Associes公司的創始人兼董事長弗吉尼亞·羅伯特表示。在彭博進行數據跟蹤的所有公司中，Constance Associes的全球科技基金今年的業績超過了99%的同行。羅伯特減持了騰訊股票，稱自己在騰訊對自己的業務發展進行更清楚的說明前將不再增持。

騰訊發言人簡·易普未回應請其進行評論的要求。

騰訊創立于1998年，創始人馬化騰如今已經是億萬富翁，騰訊憑借其廣受歡迎的網絡游戲業務、支付系統和社交平臺微信，近年來得到了投資者的青睞。這家總部在深圳的公司在幾億中國人的生活中都扮演著不可或缺的角色，因此在過去十年實現了年均48%的收入增長，比蘋果35%的增長還要高。

現在越來越多人開始懷疑這種增長是否可以持續。其中一個原因是擔心包括中國經濟放緩、人民幣疲軟等宏觀經濟因素的影響。

但很多人最擔心的是中國政府的監管。本為公司搖錢樹的網游如今已經成為騰訊股票的負擔，因為政府對整個網游行業的清理導致占公司收入40%的游戲業務發展前景充滿不確定性。中國政府從3月起停止了對新游戲的審批，有關部門也沒有透露游戲禁令何時才能結束。

政府也在收緊對互聯網金融業務的管制，因為中國的借貸額已經達到了史上最高水平，政府正在盡力減少系統風險，但這恰恰是騰訊快速增長的業務板塊。彭博的數據表明，分析師2月以來就因監管壓力將騰訊2018年的收入預期下調20%。

騰訊正在逐步拓展公司的多元化經營。公司本月宣布結構調整，將云計算業務提升至和游戲及微信業務同等高度。此外，它還向多家創業公司投資了幾十億美元，投資范圍涵蓋租車、電子商務等方方面面。

騰訊一直在回購小量股票，但公司領導層并未對最近的大跌發表評論，亦沒有報道表明他們個人增持了公司股票。彭博的監管備案文件顯示，從9月12日到上周三，騰訊回購了大約相當于1.03億美元的股票。

看漲者認為今年的困難形勢不會影響騰訊在主要業務領域的主導地位，一旦管制放開，經濟阻力減小，公司股價就能回升。盡管分析師預測騰訊年度收入將下滑，但彭博的跟蹤數據顯示，他們將騰訊股票12個月內的目標價位設定為增長60%。

“我們認為騰訊仍然和以前一樣重要。”丹尼斯·巴里耶說，他是Cathay Innovation的聯合創始人兼首席執行官，該公司總部位于舊金山，管理著10億美元的資本。騰訊股價崩盤“不會改變騰訊公司在市場上的地位”，巴里耶說。

然而，哪怕一些長期看漲的人也對大量抄底持謹慎態度。騰訊未來12個月的市盈率已經從42%跌至23%，但仍然比過去10年中股價暴跌至谷底時要高。Facebook的市盈率是16，阿里巴巴的市盈率是21。

“現在確實很便宜。”米切爾·格林說，他是總部位于圣巴巴拉的Lead Edge Capital公司的創始合伙人，公司管理著15億美元的資本。“但便宜的東西還能更便宜。”（財富中文網）

譯者：Agatha

Is it time to catch the global stock market’s biggest falling knife?

For watchers of Tencent Holdings Ltd., it’s an increasingly pressing question. The Chinese internet giant’s record-breaking sell-off is getting worse, with last Thursday’s 6.8 percent rout bringing losses since late January to $252 billion — by far the biggest wipeout of shareholder wealth worldwide. The stock, one of the most widely held in emerging markets, has tumbled for an unprecedented 10 straight sessions.

As investors around the world debate whether the best days are over for the tech-led boom in global equities, Tencent has emerged as a key market bellwether. The company’s more than 67,000 percent return from its 2004 initial public offering through January trounced that of every other large-cap stock worldwide, and its slide this year presaged a steep drop in tech shares from Tokyo to New York. Some money managers say it’s too soon to call a bottom.

“While it’s a good company and we obviously still like it, at the moment it’s the proxy of all the things investors want to avoid,” said Virginie Robert, the founder and president of Paris-based Constance Associes, whose global tech fund beat 99 percent of peers tracked by Bloomberg this year. Robert, who has an underweight position in Tencent, said she’ll refrain from adding to holdings until the company provides more clarity on its business outlook.

Jane Yip, a spokeswoman for Tencent, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Founded by billionaire Pony Ma in 1998, Tencent had until recently captivated investors with its massively popular online gaming business, payments system and WeChat social networking platform. The Shenzhen-based company’s integral role in the lives of hundreds of millions of Chinese helped propel average annual earnings growth of about 48 percent over the past decade, faster than Apple Inc.’s 35 percent.

Now questions are mounting over whether Tencent’s growth is sustainable. That’s partly because of macroeconomic concerns, including a slowing Chinese economy and a weakening yuan.

But the biggest worry for many observers is regulatory meddling from Beijing. The company’s cash cow — online gaming — has become a liability for the stock after an industrywide government crackdown left the business, which accounts for about 40 percent of Tencent’s revenue, clouded in uncertainty. The country halted approvals for new games in March and authorities have given little indication of when the ban will end.

Policy makers are also tightening restrictions on Tencent’s fast-growing internet finance business as they try to reduce systemic risks in an economy saddled with record levels of debt. The regulatory squeeze has contributed to a 20 percent drop in analysts’ 2018 earnings estimates since February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Tencent is taking steps to diversify. The company announced a reorganization this month, elevating its cloud computing business to a level on par with gaming and WeChat. It has also invested billions in startups doing everything from ride hailing to e-commerce.

Tencent has been buying back small amounts of stock, though its leadership hasn’t commented on the recent losses or reported adding to holdings in their personal accounts. The company repurchased the equivalent of about $103 million of shares from Sept. 12 through last Wednesday, regulatory filings compiled by Bloomberg show.

Bulls argue that this year’s challenges have done nothing to threaten Tencent’s dominance in its key lines of business and that the stock will rally once regulatory and economic headwinds fade. Despite falling earnings forecasts, analyst share-price targets tracked by Bloomberg imply a more than 60 percent gain over the next 12 months.

“We feel Tencent is as important as ever,” said Denis Barrier, San Francisco-based co-founder and chief executive officer at Cathay Innovation, which manages $1 billion. The stock rout “is not going to change the position of its market share,” Barrier said.

Still, even some long-term bulls are wary of piling in. Tencent’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings multiple has dropped from about 42 to 23, but it’s still higher than when shares bottomed after major declines over the past decade. Facebook Inc.’s multiple is 16, while Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s is 21.

“They are cheap,” said Mitchell Green, the Santa Barbara-based founding partner of Lead Edge Capital, which manages $1.5 billion. “But what is cheap can get cheaper.”