上一次經濟衰退恰逢史上最大熊市。從2007年10月頂峰到2009年3月谷底，標普500指數暴跌56%，全球股民眼睜睜地看著股市縮水11萬億美元。

然而，如果你在思考下次熊市是什么時候，記住這一點：大部分十年前離場的投資者都后悔了。如果在股市下跌時離場，意味著你要決定什么時候返場，才能抓住股市恢復的好時機。能準確判斷熊市起止時間的投資者連一輛小貨車都裝不滿，大部分人都判斷不好這個時間點，這也是為什么大部分個人投資者跑不贏市場。

最近晨星（Morningstar）的一項研究犀利地討論了這個問題。從1997年到2017年，標普500的年均回報率為7.2%。但如果你在市場表現最好的30天里離場了，不論是什么原因，你的股票年均收入就是-0.9%，而30天是這21年期間5217個交易日中非常小的一部分。

簡單地說：過去一個世紀，市場上漲的年份是下跌年份的三倍，在這期間，只要買定不離場，一般情況下都能贏利。然而，即使是樂觀主義者也會說，現在可以做些調整，以減輕股災時的痛苦。

THE LAST RECESSION coincided with one of history’s worst bear markets in stocks. Between its peak in October 2007 and its trough in March 2009, the S&P 500 tumbled 56%, and shareholders worldwide endured a staggering $11 trillion in lost market value.

Still, as you mull the possibility of the next bear market, keep this in mind: Most investors who bailed out of stocks a decade ago regretted it later. Pulling money out of a declining market means having to decide when to jump back in to capitalize on a recovery. The number of investors who can correctly identify the beginnings and endings of bear markets can comfortably fit in a minivan, so most people flub this timing—which in turn is one big reason most individual investors underperform the markets.

A recent study from Morningstar frames the issue starkly. From 1997 through 2017, the S&P 500 returned 7.2% annually. But if you had been on the sidelines, for whatever reason, and missed the market’s 30 best days—a tiny fraction of the 5,217 trading days during that 21-year span—your stock portfolio would have lost 0.9% annually.

The bottom line: In a market that has registered three times as many up years as down years over the past century, staying invested usually pays off over time. Still, even optimists say there are adjustments worth making today that could ease the pain of a crash.

恢復平衡

很多投資者都根據自己的財務目標和風險承受能力進行資產配置，比如以50%的美股、25%的國際股票和25%的債券為目標。但是因為美股最近收益遠超其他產品，上述配比對于很多人來說就不合適了，美國公司在他們的股票配置中占了一大部分。如果美元升值，考慮賣掉一些美股，買入外國股票。哪怕出現影響全球市場的經濟放緩，“你也能花最少的錢得到最大的效果。”Stifel的市場戰略師巴瑞·巴尼斯特說。

哪怕是在你的美股中，進行重新配置也是十分必要的：科技股表現強勁，加上其他領域股價的大幅下跌，你現在持有的硅谷股票可能有點太多了。摩根士丹利的首席美國證券戰略師麥克·威爾遜說，在經濟循環的這個階段，公用事業、電信、必需消費品等行業的股票表現良好。

對債券要精挑細選

貝萊德的伊莎貝拉·瑪蒂爾西·拉果說，幾乎零風險的美國國債憑借其穩定上升的回報率，“極大地威脅了其它風險更高的債券”。因此減少購買高回報率的“垃圾”債券是明智之選，這種債券之所以回報率高，是因為發行公司的情況已經岌岌可危；也不要購買長期債券，因為如果經濟形勢出現不穩定，這些債券的價格會大幅下跌。哪怕是不起眼的貨幣市場也有2%的收益率，因此威爾遜說，短期債券是個“不錯的選擇”。

什么時候該穩妥行事

然而，有一種投資者應該無視“不要放棄股票”的原則。福斯特集團（Foster Group）的首席投資官肯特·克萊默建議，臨近退休的人士要迅速行動，賣出股票，在貨幣市場里存上一兩年的生活費或者買一兩年的國債。克萊默解釋道，你一定不想等到股票下跌的時候才被迫拋售，大衰退期間很多人的養老儲備金就是這樣蒸發的。即便如此，這條建議不能算是“選擇最佳時機交易”，而是在市場前景看起來一片大好時的明智之舉。（財富中文網）?

——報道：露辛達·沈、瑞安·德羅索

本文另一版本發表在2018年8月1日的《財富》雜志，標題為《狂歡結束時，應當去哪投資》

譯者：Agatha

Recover Your Balance

MANY INVESTORS build portfolios around asset allocations based on their financial goals and risk tolerance—a target of, for example, 50% U.S. stocks, 25% international stocks, and 25% bonds. But because U.S. stocks have outperformed others by such big margins recently, those percentages are now out of whack for many, with American companies occupying more than their share of space. When the dollar peaks, consider selling some U.S. stocks and buying foreign ones. Even if an economic slowdown hurts markets globally, “you’ll get more bang for the buck,” says Stifel market strategist Barry Bannister.

It’s worth rebalancing within your U.S. portfolio too: The blistering performance of tech stocks, combined with significant price declines in other sectors, may mean you now own a little too much of Silicon Valley. Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, cites utilities, telecom, and consumer staples as industries whose stocks do well at this stage of the economic cycle.

Get Choosy About Debt

STEADILY RISING interest rates on nearly risk-free U.S. Treasuries “create serious competition for riskier securites,” says Isabelle Mateosy Lago, BlackRock’s chief multi-asset strategist. So it’s wise to reduce exposure to high-yield “junk” bonds, which pay higher interest because the issuing companies are on shakier footing, and to longer-duration bonds, whose prices can dip sharply when the economy is shaky. With even lowly money markets paying around 2%, short-term debt is “not a bad place to hang out,” says Wilson.

When To Play It Safer

THERE’S ONE GROUP of investors who should ignore the “don’t avoid stocks” rule. Kent Kramer, chief investment officer at Foster Group, recommends that people nearing retirement act soon and sell stocks, if necessary, to sock away one or two years’ worth of living expenses in money markets and short-term Treasuries, and an added five to 10 years’ worth in other bonds. You don’t want to be forced to sell equities when stock prices are falling, Kramer explains—that’s the bind that crushed many nest eggs during the Great Recession. That said, this advice doesn’t count as “market timing”: It’s a wise move even when the outlook is rosy.

—With reporting by Lucinda Shen and Ryan Derousseau

A version of this article appears in the August 1, 2018 issue of Fortune with the headline “Where To Invest When The Party Ends.”