今年以來，美股跌宕起伏，顛得人直反胃，很大程度上要歸因于中美兩國之間的貿(mào)易沖突（更別說美國和眾多合作伙伴之間的沖突了）。另一方面，加息擾亂了債市，讓情況雪上加霜，甚至可能因此終結(jié)全球經(jīng)濟增長的盛大狂歡。

如果這些行情已經(jīng)讓你夜不能寐，那再聽聽貝萊德集團（BlackRock）首席全球投資戰(zhàn)略師理查德·特尼爾的溫馨提示吧：“這標志著市場要回歸常態(tài)了。”他告訴《財富》雜志，“去年全球增勢強勁、鮮有波動，那才不正常。”

好消息是，即使“常態(tài)”意味著不確定性和整體風(fēng)險更高，投資者仍可以看好今年年底前的行情。這是貝萊德多位高級戰(zhàn)略師在編寫《全球投資中期展望》時得出的結(jié)論。感謝貝萊德的分享，這份報告在本周一已經(jīng)發(fā)布。

貝萊德是全球最大的資產(chǎn)管理機構(gòu)，掌管6.3萬億美元的客戶資產(chǎn)。該公司不僅提供全球最大的被動操作式交易型開放指數(shù)基金（ETF），主動管理的資產(chǎn)價值也達近1.7萬億美元，其投資團隊對資金的部署運作甚至?xí)l(fā)全球市場海嘯。

貝萊德對個人投資者的建議可以歸結(jié)為：不要因為新聞頭條恐慌，不要放棄股市，但要調(diào)整投資方案，增加方案彈性，應(yīng)對未來幾個月可能出現(xiàn)的波動加劇。

兩大風(fēng)險：貿(mào)易沖突、收益率增高

股市去年一路高漲，今年卻行情慘淡：截至7月6日，標普500上升僅2.4%，MSCI全球指數(shù)下跌1.2%，和1月峰值相比，兩大指數(shù)分別下跌4%和7.3%。

貝萊德的首席股權(quán)戰(zhàn)略師凱特·摩爾認為貿(mào)易沖突是市場疲軟的主因。摩爾稱：“如果公司管理層失去了信心，或者認為公司的全球供應(yīng)鏈會因為貿(mào)易沖突加劇受到?jīng)_擊，他們就會減少投資。”這種做法轉(zhuǎn)而又會影響公司營收，削弱股票投資者的信心。

還有一個原因不太明顯卻同樣十分重要。感謝政府尤其是美國財政部提高了政府債券的收益率，股市因此還要和國債爭寵。金融危機以來，政府債券收益率長期維持超低水平，投資者更愿意選擇炒股，因為對比起來債券收益實在太低。

但是現(xiàn)在“這些幾乎零風(fēng)險的投資也能產(chǎn)生2.3%至3%的收益，確實對高風(fēng)險證券產(chǎn)生了有力威脅”，貝萊德的首席多元資產(chǎn)戰(zhàn)略師伊莎貝拉·瑪?shù)贍栁鳌だf，“投資者現(xiàn)在要求股票能提供高風(fēng)險溢價”。換言之，如果股票上漲前景堪憂，他們很可能會退出股市，如果再出現(xiàn)新聞?wù)撜{(diào)悲觀、通脹風(fēng)險加速的情況，形勢會更加不容樂觀。

美股：看上去仍然很美

然而，貝萊德團隊認為許多股票——尤其是美國公司股票——形勢良好，不懼任何風(fēng)浪。特尼爾說，在2017年美國減稅舉措的激勵下，許多公司增加了資本開支，主要用于加大研發(fā)、提升技術(shù)、購買設(shè)備。這對他們?nèi)蘸筇嵘a(chǎn)力、加快增速大有裨益，投資者因此更可能對他們不離不棄。

但也不能把所有的美國股票一概而論。特尼爾和摩爾認為，持有收支平衡、營收增勢良好的股票才是明智之選，同時要注意避開有大量高利債的公司，而很多公司在利率低的時候都曾舉債來收購公司、派發(fā)分紅。

基于上述原則，貝萊德團隊更青睞科技公司，雖然科技公司的股價有時會因為貿(mào)易沖突加劇出現(xiàn)波動。但摩爾認為，許多科技公司擁有“堡壘似的資產(chǎn)負債表”，“擁有大量現(xiàn)金、負債低、增勢猛”。她還說，更重要的是，科技公司會因為其他公司增加資本性支出而受益，因為“大部分公司都把錢花在了提高技術(shù)水平上”。

貝萊德團隊對歐洲股票表態(tài)謹慎，因為德國和意大利在移民問題上的不同意見可能會對經(jīng)濟造成影響。“我們認為歐洲的資產(chǎn)價格尚未充分體現(xiàn)目前地緣政治中的風(fēng)險因素。”特尼爾說。但亞洲和其他新興市場的股票看起來仍頗具吸引力：即使一些股票因為貿(mào)易沖突出現(xiàn)下跌，但大部分“增長和營收預(yù)期良好”，摩爾表示。

買債券要挑剔

通脹可能性增加、美聯(lián)儲和其它國家央行加息，造成了貝萊德所說的“市場改朝換代”，許多投資者因此遠離高風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)。這一變化對債券市場影響尤大，因為某些債券的價格更容易受到加息的影響。結(jié)果導(dǎo)致長期資產(chǎn)（比如十年期的國庫券）和低質(zhì)量信貸資產(chǎn)（比如垃圾債券）風(fēng)險更高、吸引力更低。

貝萊德認為債券投資者應(yīng)該關(guān)注兩年左右的短期債券，它們的價格不易受到利率影響。瑪?shù)贍栁鳌だㄗh投資“高質(zhì)量高流動性”的產(chǎn)品。簡而言之，要關(guān)注包括國庫券和投資級的公司債券在內(nèi)的高評級債券，它們的“流動性”更高，更容易出手。

瑪?shù)贍栁鳌だJ為新興市場債務(wù)十分誘人，能產(chǎn)生更高回報。但她也提醒道，最好投資使用強勢貨幣而非本國貨幣報價的債務(wù)（用美元或其他廣泛使用的全球性貨幣計價），因為如果使用本國貨幣，可能會因為匯率下跌快速貶值。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha?

American stocks have spent the year riding nausea-inducing swells and dips, thanks in no small part to trade conflicts between the U.S. and China (not to mention between between the U.S. and countless other partners). Making matters worse, rising interest rates are upsetting the bond market and threatening to end the global economic growth party.

If market trends like these have filled your nights with dread, Richard Turnill, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock, has a reminder for you. “This is a return to normal,” he tells Fortune. “Last year, when we had strong global growth and very little volatility, that was the anomaly.”

The good news: Even if “normal” means more uncertainty and greater overall risk, investors have a lot to look forward to between now and the end of 2018. That’s the conclusion that BlackRock senior strategists reached in their Midyear Global Investment Outlook, which BlackRock shared with Fortune in advance of its publication on Monday.

BlackRock is the world’s biggest asset manager, overseeing $6.3 trillion in client wealth. It’s the planet’s largest provider of passive exchange-traded-funds, but it also has nearly $1.7 trillion under active management, and the choices the company’s investment teams make about where to deploy that money can send seismic waves through global markets.

For individual investors, BlackRock’s advice boils down to: Don’t panic over headlines, and don’t give up on stocks, but do take some steps to make your portfolio more resilient in case markets get choppier in the coming months.

Two big threats: trade tension and rising rates

After soaring last year, stocks have disappointed investors so far in 2018: For the year to date through July 6, the S&P 500 is up just 2.4%, while the MSCI All Country World Index is down 1.2%. Since their respective peaks in January, those two indexes are down 4% and 7.3%, respectively.

Kate Moore, Blackrock’s chief equity strategist, says trade tensions have played a major role in muting the markets. “If company management teams lose their confidence,” Moore says, “or feel like their global supply chain is going to be hit by greater trade conflict, they may pull back on their investment.” That, in turn, hurts earnings and weakens stock investors’ confidence.

A less widely noticed, but equally important issue is that stocks now have more competition for investors’ attention, thanks to rising rates on government bonds, especially U.S. Treasuries. With rates ultra-low for most of the years since the financial crisis, investors tended to choose stocks in part because bond returns looked so low by comparison.

But now, “nearly risk-free assets yielding 2.5% to 3% create serious competition for riskier securities,” explains Isabelle Mateos y Lago, BlackRock’s chief multi-asset strategist. “Investors now demand a higher risk premium” for stocks. That means they’re more likely to pull money out of stocks that don’t have great growth prospects, especially when headlines are grim or signs of faster inflation loom.

America is still beautiful for stocks

Still, according to the BlackRock team, many stocks—especially those of U.S. companies—are in good shape to weather any choppiness ahead. Turnill says that the 2017 U.S. tax cuts have prompted many American companies to boost their “capex”—basically, investments in research, technology and equipment. That sets them up for greater productivity and faster growth down the line, and leaves investors more inclined to stick with them.

Not all U.S. stocks are created equal, however. Turnill and Moore argue that it’s wise to stick with stocks that have strong balance sheets and good prospects for earnings growth—while avoiding companies that have taken on high levels of higher-interest debt, as many did during the low-rate era to fund acquisitions or dividend payouts.

That philosophy steers the BlackRock team toward tech, even though tech stock prices have occasionally wobbled when trade tensions have risen. Moore says many tech companies have “fortress balance sheets” with “high levels of cash, low levels of leverage [and] strong earnings growth.” What’s more, she notes, they’re benefiting from other companies’ capex growth, since “more companies are spending on technology across all sectors.”

The BlackRock team is more cautious about stocks in Europe, where tensions over immigration and Germany and Italy could become economically disruptive. “We think European asset prices don’t yet reflect those geopolitical risks,” says Turnill. Stocks in Asia and other emerging markets, however, look attractive: Even though the prices of some have taken a beating due to tension over trade, many “offer both good growth prospects and good income potential,” says Moore.

Get choosy with bonds

The growing possibility of higher inflation, and moves by the Fed and other central banks to raise rates, have created what BlackRock calls a “market regime change” that nudges investors away from riskier assets. That change has a particularly strong impact in the bond market, where prices of certain bonds are more likely to be hurt by rising rates. The upshot: Longer-duration assets (say, a 10-year Treasury, as opposed to a two-year one) and lower-credit-quality assets (like junk bonds) start to look riskier and less attractive.

Blackrock argues that bond investors should focus on owning bonds of shorter duration, of around two years; their prices are less likely to be affected by rate fluctuations. Mateos y Lago also suggests adopting “an up-in-quality, up-in-liquidity bias.” In short, focus on higher-rated bonds, including Treasuries and investment-grade corporate bonds, in part because they’re more “l(fā)iquid,” or easier to sell.

Emerging-market debt looks attractive, Mateos y Lago notes, because it tends to pay higher yields. Her caveat: It’s better to invest in debt that’s quoted in hard currency (that is, denminated in dollars or another widely used global currency), rather than in local-currency debt—because local-currency debt can lose value quickly if the issuing country’s currency slips in relation to the dollar.