歷史上“其興也勃焉，其衰也忽焉”的故事數不勝數，豈唯比特幣而已。摩根士丹利也指出，比特幣的興衰史與當年的“.com”泡沫十分相像，無非是“.com”泡沫破裂的過程要慢了許多。

摩根士丹利近日在一篇文章中指出，比特幣的價格走向曲線很像“.com”泡沫時期的納斯達克綜指。只不過這一次，比特幣泡沫的速度要比世紀之交的“.com”快了15倍之多。

那么二者究竟有多相像呢？自從比特幣問世以來，其幣值經歷過四次幅度達45%到50%的大跌，不過之后平均每次都會回升47%左右。而納指從2000年開始也曾有過五次大幅震蕩，平均每次下跌44%，之后又會回升約40%。

比特幣與“.com”的成交量模式也是驚人地相似。

當然，隨便一個比特幣經紀人都會告訴你，以前的表現對以后的行為并沒有什么指導意義。雖說現在納指已經比2002年的最低點時回升了許多（增長了6倍），但沒人能保證比特幣也能像納指一樣穩健回升。

但對于迷信比特幣的人，這些話仍是對牛彈琴。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

If the rise and fall of Bitcoin seems familiar, Morgan Stanley wants to assure you that it is, though you saw things play out a lot slower originally.

The investment firm, in a note, said the cryptocurrency’s price chart is largely mirroring that of the Nasdaq composite index during the dot-com bubble. Only this time, things are moving 15 times faster than they did in the mid-90s and early 2000s.

How similar are things, exactly? Since its creation, Bitcoin has seen four bear waves, where prices have dropped 45-50%, typically rebounding an average of 47% afterward. Nasdaq, starting in 2000, had five of those waves, averaging 44% declines, followed by 40% rebounds.

Trading volume patterns are also eerily similar.

Of course, as any broker will tell you, past performance is not indicative of future behavior. And while Nasdaq has rallied nicely from its low in 2002 (increasing six-fold), that’s no guarantee Bitcoin will do the same.

But try telling that to crypto enthusiasts.