一般來說市場報道中出現“期貨溢價”時，人們第一反應很可能是“說的啥？”另一種反應可能是“油輪到哪了？”因為期貨溢價和意義相似的術語——現貨溢價都經常用在大宗商品期貨市場中。但有時也會在其他衍生品市場中出現，在不久前的市場動蕩中，波動性期貨通常已經從期貨溢價變成現貨溢價，有點不正常，甚至有些危險跡象。以下是術語解釋，以及為何會受到交易員關注。

1.期貨溢價和現貨溢價是什么意思？

不同的交易曲線名稱代表了交易員對某合約未來價值的不同判斷。期貨溢價意思是預期上漲，現貨溢價則是預期下降。在原油市場實操中，如果交易員將以指定價格買入數月之后交付的貨物，且該指定價格高于下月交付的貨物，那么市場上就存在期貨溢價。

2.波動性是什么意思？

芝加哥期權交易所波動指數，簡稱VIX根據現時期權交易情況編制，期權是指在一定條件下按照指定價格買入或賣出證券的權利。交易員通常用這些衍生品對沖市場波動。VIX采用期權價格，即交易員為不同的市場狀況愿意支付的對沖價格計算標普500指數隱含波動率。

3.VIX曲線通常是什么情況？

通常是期貨溢價。因為對未來標普指數的預期，就像對天氣的預期一樣，通常研究越深覺得不確定性越多。

4. 現在是什么情況？

整個VIX期貨曲線處在現貨溢價狀態。這意味著投資者認為近期內波動性增加。現在短期合約比遠期合約價格高。

5. 現狀意味著什么？

普遍市場預期是風險已經來臨。而且預期沒有削弱的跡象，股市堪稱2011年以來最慘一周，短期合約與長期合約之間的利差越發收窄。隨著利差壓縮，回歸期貨溢價越發困難，也說明波動性增大將常態化。

6.這些術語從哪來的？

很難說。這些名詞都用了很久。在1893年吉爾伯特和沙利文倒數第二部歌劇《烏托邦有限公司》中，一位公司騙子就介紹說：“要推廣公司就要專門學/不僅要學期貨溢價還要學現貨溢價。”

7.關于油輪如何操作？

還記得期貨溢價里期貨價格曲線向上走么？如果原油交易員猜對了，就可以按照當前指定價格買入原油，賣出未來按更高價格交付的原油期貨合約，同時囤積原油。2008年金融危機期間，原油價格雪崩，投資者曾將9000萬桶原油轉為浮動存儲。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

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Usually when “contango” comes up in a markets story, one reaction might be “Huh?” while another might be “Where’s my oil tanker?” That’s because contango and its sister term, backwardation, are used most often in the context of futures markets for commodities. But they can pop up in any derivatives market and during this week’s turmoil, volatility futures have, unusually and perhaps alarmingly, slipped from contango into backwardation. Here’s how to understand what that means and why traders care.

1. What are contango and backwardation?

Names for the curve structures mapping traders’ guesses about what a given contract will be worth in the future. Contango means upward sloping; backwardation, downward. In the oil markets, that means that if traders will pay more to lock in a shipment at a given price several months away than they would for delivery next month, the market’s in contango.

2. What does that mean for volatility?

The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, as it’s known, is compiled based on the current state of trading in options — contracts giving the right to buy or sell securities at specified prices in certain conditions. Traders often use these derivatives to hedge against market fluctuations. The VIX uses options prices — the amounts traders are willing to pay to be prepared for different outcomes — to calculate what’s called the implied volatility for the S&P 500 Index.

3. Where is the VIX curve usually?

In contango. That’s because projections about the outlook for the S&P, like for the weather, normally become more uncertain the further into the future one looks.

4. What’s happening now?

The entire VIX futures curve is in backwardation. That’s a signal that investors expect more volatility in the near-term. Right now, shorter-term contracts are more expensive than longer ones.

5. What does that mean?

That market participants are preoccupied with the risk that’s right in front of their faces. That’s shown no signs of abating, with stocks on track for their worst week since 2011 as the spread between short and longer-term contracts became increasingly negative. Any narrowing of the gap, let alone a return to contango, would be a sign that conditions are normalizing.

6. Where do those terms come from?

That’s hard to say. But they’ve been around for a while. In Gilbert and Sullivan’s penultimate opera, “Utopia, Limited,” in 1893, a corporate shill is introduced with this: “A Company Promoter this with special education/Which teaches what Contango means and also Backwardation.”

7. And what was that about oil tankers?

Remember how that futures price curve is sloping upward in contango? If the oil traders are right, they can make money by buying oil at today’s spot price, selling a futures contract for delivery at the higher price expected in the future and storing the oil in the meantime. After oil prices crashed with the financial crisis of 2008, investors put 90 million barrels of crude into floating storage.