隨著道瓊斯工業平均指數（Dow Jones Industrial Average）和標普500指數（S&P 500）等主要股指在本周一跌掉了2018年的所有漲幅，投資者乃至白宮都開始擔心起來，股市還會進一步下跌嗎？

一位白宮官員周一早晨對美國全國廣播公司財經頻道（CNBC）表示：“股市下跌時我們總是會關注”，但也許是為了緩和人們的緊張不安，他補充道：“但我們同樣對經濟基礎充滿信心。”

由于勞工統計局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）上周五發布了高于預期的工資數據，人們對美聯儲（Federal Reserve）加息的期望也有所提高，本周一，衡量美國股市的道瓊斯工業平均指數、標普500指數和納斯達克指數（Nasdaq）連續第二天出現下跌。

盡管工人們可能對于每小時增加9美分工資樂意之至，但上周五的消息卻讓華爾街忐忑不安，周一股市可能多達幾十億美元的損失則更是雪上加霜。

投資者擔心，如果美聯儲認為美國經濟的發展過熱，可能會在今年更加激進地調高利率。工資提高則是相關指標之一，它可能導致成本增高和通貨膨脹。勞工統計局上周五表示，去年12月的工資提高了2.9%，達到26.74美元，漲幅超過了經濟學家預測的2.6%。盡管對于債券收益而言這是個好消息，但對股市而言卻不一定。公司可能貸款的成本可能更高，而隨著投資者轉向風險更低的債券，公司的股票也可能遭遇損失。

工業股居多的道瓊斯指數在周一收盤時下跌了1,100點至24,345點，這標志著股指相較去年開始正式下滑。標普500指數下跌了2.2%至2,702點，開年以來的漲幅也已消耗殆盡。科技股為主的納斯達克綜合指數下跌1%至7,168點，堪堪維持住了2018年的正增長。

根據最新可獲得的數據，從1月26日道瓊斯指數達到2018年最高點至上周五，股市已經損失了3,610億美元。作為對比，石油巨頭埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）的市值大約就是3,600億美元，而道瓊斯的總市值為6.8萬億美元。

想要更宏觀地了解虧損的規模，還可以看看標普500指數。道瓊斯指數包含了30家公司，而標普500指數包含了500家公司。從1月26日至上周五，標普500指數的市值降低了9,820億美元，總額目前約為24.5萬億美元。

這是否預示著未來將出現更大規模的股票拋售？

按照分析師和投資者目前的說法，市場將繼續緩慢上行——即使是現在，我們也還沒有陷入低谷。

由邁克爾·威爾遜領銜的摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）股票策略師在周一的照會中評論道：“隨著市場繼續消化這些沖擊，我們預計短期內股指會繼續下行，不過在投資者冷靜下來以后，股指將達到新高。然而，這需要數周時間，我們不急著低價買入，而是在等待更好的技術信號。”

Evercore ISI的丹尼斯·德布斯切爾表示，投資者在重回股市之前可能會選擇靜觀其變。

托斯滕·斯洛克表示，最近股票拋售的部分原因也在于投資者正轉向比股票風險更低的資產。

他寫道：“把資金從風險資產轉移到無風險資產會產生一些震蕩，就像市場現在的情況一樣。基本上，我們都會看到這樣騷亂的小插曲，不過本質上經濟擴張將會持續。”

大家之所以對股市的走向不太擔心，是因為最近各家公司的財報都表現強勁。

Yardeni Research的愛德華·亞德尼寫道：“周五的下跌之后，無論是短期內是上揚還是下跌，我都看好行情，因為業績預期仍然非常樂觀。過去七周里，行業分析師普遍預期的2018年標普500指數每股收益提高了9美元，在2月2日這一周達到了155.26美元。”

這不意味著所有人都認為下跌只是短期現象。黑石集團（Blackstone Group）總裁托尼·詹姆斯就評論道，股市現在已經充分估值了。

在接受CNBC采訪時，這位億萬富翁表示他預計股市今年會下跌10%至20%。（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正?

With major stock market indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 erasing their 2018 gains on Monday, investors and even the White House are indeed starting to worry: Will the market fall further?

“We’re always concerned when the market loses any value,” a White House official told CNBC early Monday, adding, perhaps to allay any jitters, “But we’re also confident in the economy’s fundamentals.”

The U.S. stock market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq fell for the second day in a row Monday, due to rosier-than-expected wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday—pushing up expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

While workers may have embraced the news of some extra nine cents per hour, the Friday news also sent jitters up and down Wall Street—adding what is likely billions in losses to the stock market Monday.

Investors are concerned that the Fed may hike interest rates more aggressively this year if it thinks the U.S. economy is growing overheated. And higher wages, which may lead to greater spending and inflation, can be an indicator of that. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed Friday that wages had risen 2.9% to $26.74 an hour in December—up from the 2.6% economists were expecting. While that’s a boon for bond yields, it’s not always a winning combination for stocks. Companies may have to spend more to borrow funds, while their stocks may lose some of their pull as investors seek out less risky bonds.

The industrials-heavy Dow Jones index slid 1,100 points to 24,345 as of Monday’s close—putting it officially in the red for 2018. The S&P 500 shed 2.2%, falling to 2,702 points and erasing its 2018 gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, was down 1% to 7,168—still just barely hanging onto its 2018 gains.

That adds to the $361 billion in losses Dow Jones Industrial companies have already posted between the market’s 2018 high on Jan. 26 and Friday, according to the most recent available data. For comparison, oil giant Exxon Mobil commands a market capitalization of about $360 billion to $6.8 trillion.

For a greater look at the magnitude of the losses, look to the S&P 500, which tracks about 500 companies compared to the Dow’s 30. Between Jan. 26 and Friday, stocks in that index lost $982 billion in market capitalization, for a total of around $24.5 trillion.

So is this a sign that a greater selloff is in the works?

Based on what analysts and investors are saying at the moment, the markets will continue upward slower than before—even though we haven’t hit the bottom just yet.

“We expect further downside in the near term as markets continue to digest these shocks, but ultimately we will trade to new highs as cooler heads prevail,” Morgan Stanley equity strategists led by Michael Wilson commented in a Monday note. “This should take several weeks, however, and we are in no rush to buy this dip as we wait for better technical signals.”

Investors are likely to wait for any surprises before jumping back into the market, says Denis Busschere of Evercore ISI in a note.

The recent selloff, says Torsten Slok, is also partly due to investors turning to less risky assets than equities.

“The allocation of money from risky assets to risk-free assets is going to be bumpy, as seen in markets today,” he wrote. “Fundamentally, we expect such episodic bouts of turbulence, but the underlying economic expansion will continue.”

Underlying this general lack of worry about the stock market’s direction is the fact that recent earnings have been strong, per company guidance.

“Whatever might be the short-term follow-up (or -down) on Friday’s drop, I remain bullish because the outlook for earnings remains very upbeat,” wrote Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. “Industry analysts have raised their consensus S&P 500 earnings estimate for 2018 by $9 per share over the past seven weeks to $155.26 during the week of February 2.”

That’s not to say everyone agrees that the bloodbath will be short-lived. Blackstone Group President Tony James commented that equities have reached full value at this point.

In an interview with CNBC, the billionaire said he expects markets to fall between 10 to 20% this year.