對于比特幣投資者來說，總有一些時候是特別考驗你的靈魂的。

在美國推出比特幣期貨后，比特幣的幣值在去年12月一度漲至近2萬美元，此后便一路暴跌，幣值被攔腰砍掉一半以上，截止至上周五已跌至7614美元。不過據比特幣網站coinmarketcap.com稱，截止到上周六紐約當地時間下午2時58分，比特幣的幣值又回升了7.5個百分點，回升至9290.15美元。

在此輪暴跌中，損失最慘重的，當然是那些在比特幣幣值最高位處接盤的人。此前不久，杰米·迪蒙和魯里埃爾·魯比尼等比特幣懷疑論者就曾指出，比特幣是史上最大的資產泡沫之一，且已顯現出貶值的跡象。“接盤俠”們的恐慌性出售，也與早期比特幣力挺者們呼吁的“持有”大相徑庭。在早前的暴跌中，一名交易員幾乎語無倫次地乞求投資者繼續持有比特幣，無奈它最終還是在接盤俠們割肉的呻吟中淹沒了。

比特幣之所以進入主流視野，與比特幣期貨的獲批不無關系。比特幣期獲被開綠燈后，很多散戶害怕錯過下一個風口，紛紛建倉投資比特幣。隨著越來越多新手涌入，比特幣的幣值迅速飆升至10000美元，然后是15000美元，在一些交易所甚至被炒到20000美元，這一切只用了短短幾周的時間。

就連一些比特幣的大炒家也認為，比特幣的非理性暴漲已經進入了失控的范疇。比如原計劃投資5億美元建立數字加密貨幣對沖基金但最終改為籌建數字加密貨幣商業銀行的億萬富翁邁克·諾沃格拉茨就警告道，比特幣很有可能會跌至8000美元。Fundstrat公司的托馬斯·李也表示，比特幣有可能會先跌至9000美元左右，而后才會再度上漲。

托馬斯·李上周五在接受電話采訪時表示，近期接連幾起比特幣被盜事件，以及不斷收緊的監管“都影響了人們的信心。在事態明朗之前，很多投資者都在觀望。但是現在還沒有什么根本的轉變。這種情況是健康的，有時一些挫折是必要的，因為沒有什么東西是始終直線上漲的。”

隨著比特幣的總市值于今年1月暴漲至8000億美元以上，各國監管部門都加大了對比特幣的重視。各國管控比特幣交易的新聞不時見諸報端，導致一些高位買進的散戶投資者出現了恐慌性拋售，以避免遭受更大的損失。

不過想要繼續投資比特幣的仍大有人在，這些人曾多次將舊金山的比特幣交易所Coinbase Inc擠到崩潰。一旦比特幣市場反彈，他們還將繼續投資比特幣。比如自上周金融經紀APP羅賓漢金融（Robinhood Financial）宣布將提供零成本比特幣交易服務后，很快就有100多萬人注冊了“搶先體驗”功能。

上漲800%

研究網站CryptoCompare的查爾斯·海特認為，比特幣的前景依然是樂觀的。因為比特幣開發者正在這項技術上取得突破，以后比特幣網絡的交易速度將變得更快。另外海特也表示，即將成形的監管框架和投資者保護措施從長遠來看，對數字加密貨幣的發展仍然是積極的。

與此同時，很多早期入手比特幣的投資者并沒有因市場異動而盲目拋售。去年年初時，比特幣的幣值只有1000美元；2016年年初，比特幣只值450美元。所以那時入手的投資者對這次的損失不屑一顧——畢竟他們現在的回報率還是高達800%的。

征戰比特幣界的老將、比特幣研究平臺Trive公司的CEO大衛·蒙德羅斯表示：“這只是年初的一次市場異動。再過12個月，我們甚至都不會記得它。”（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

For Bitcoin investors, these are the times that try one’s soul.

After surging to almost $20,000 in December following the introduction of regulated futures contracts in the U.S., the world’s largest cryptocurrency has lost more than half its value, plummeting to as low as $7,614 on Friday. It regained some ground on Saturday, rising 7.5 percent to $9,290.15 as of 2:58 p.m. in New York, according to coinmarketcap.com.

Particularly hard hit have been those who got swept up in the mania just before what skeptics ranging from Jamie Dimon to Nouriel Roubini have labeled as one of the biggest asset bubbles in history began showing signs of deflating. Selling by “weak hands,” as latecomers are sometimes called across the investing world, contrasts with the view of early advocates pledging to HODL — one frenzied trader’s misspelled entreaty to hold onto the tokens during an earlier rout that’s become the mantra of Bitcoin purists.

Bitcoin’s rise in mainstream consciousness was brought on in part by retail investors’ fear of missing out after viewing the approval of futures as an endorsement by the establishment. As more novice investors jumped in, Bitcoin shot above $10,000, then $15,000, then as high as $20,000 on some exchanges, in a span of only a few weeks.

Some of Bitcoin’s biggest backers even warned the euphoria had gotten out of hand. Billionaire Mike Novogratz, who shelved his plans to open a $500 million cryptocurrency hedge fund and instead wants to build a crypto merchant bank, warned that Bitcoin would fall to as low as $8,000. Thomas Lee of Fundstrat said the cryptocurrency would slide to as low as $9,000 before shooting back up.

Recent hacks and tightening regulation have “weighed on confidence,” Lee said in a telephone interview Friday. “Investors are staying on the sidelines until there’s some visibility, but nothing fundamental has changed. It’s healthy; you need drawbacks sometimes as nothing goes up in a straight line.”

Those highs helped increase the scrutiny regulators as the total market capitalization climbed to more than $800 billion at one point in January. A steady steam of headlines since about officials cracking down on the market sparked jitters and caused those same retail traders who got in at the highs, to panic sell, hoping to avoid even greater losses.

But the hordes of people wanting to trade crypto, which repeatedly crashed San Francisco-based exchange Coinbase Inc. when the market was rallying, are still there. More than one million people have signed up for “early access” to the brokerage app Robinhood Financial’s cryptocurrency section since it said it would offer no-cost trading in digital coins last week.

Up 800%

Charles Hayter of research website CryptoCompare sees good news on the horizon, as Bitcoin developers are making breakthroughs in technology that will help the network process transactions faster. Also, Hayter said an emerging regulatory framework and investor protections will be positive for cryptocurrencies in the long term.

Meanwhile, many investors who got in earlier aren’t budging. Bitcoin was worth about $1,000 at the beginning of last year and about $450 at the start of 2016, so those who bought then are shrugging off these losses — they’re still up more than 800 percent.

“It’s just early-year market blues,” said David Mondrus, a long-time crypto enthusiast and chief executive of Trive, a blockchain-based research platform. “In 12 months, we won’t even remember it.”