投資支持團體Tiger 21擁有大約580名會員，其中大部分都是已經賣掉了自己公司的企業家。他們會定期見面，對各自的投資策略提供建議和反饋。團體的創始人邁克爾·索內菲爾特表示，面對市場中越來越多的未知情況，會員的應對手段是把更多資金轉移到他們能夠幫助取得成功——即對結果有一定控制能力的資產那里。

當然，最近幾年來，股票和債券的投資環境都很友好。不過隨著美聯儲（Federal Reserve）決定上調利率，在牛市接近九周年之際，股票估值開始急劇增長，再加上人們對國家安全的擔憂開始加劇，許多觀察家越來越傾向于認為股市會出現回落。【不久前，在《財富》的年度投資圓桌會議上，專家們對這些擔憂進行了詳細討論。】

面對未知情況，許多投資者的做法是轉移資產，保護投資組合免受市場低迷的沖擊。轉向防御的策略往往意味著投資與股票或債券無關的資產，無論那是黃金、比特幣還是房地產，或是你親戚的最新發明。當然，這些資產本身也有風險，把大部分錢放到里面也是風險很大的豪賭。不過希望在于，你的防御性資產可以獲得一些回報，假如你剩下的投資表現掙扎，投資組合整體上也不至于虧本。

投資私人公司

對Tiger 21的許多企業家來說，（廣義上的）私人股本讓他們有機會減少股票或債券的沖擊。索內菲爾特表示，過去十年來，這些商界富豪“資產配置的最大轉變”就是更傾向于私人股本，對這類資產投資的平均比重從之前的10%提高到了如今的21%。

私人股本可能意味著以天使投資人或風險投資人的身份在某家有潛力的新公司參股。如果投資足夠多，你還可以加入公司的董事會，尤其是如果公司還處在發展早期的話（對于擁有創業經驗的人來說，這是個很有吸引力的前景）。Tiger 21的另一些投資者則通過私人股本公司的融資把錢投了進去，而他們對于投資的日常關注就少了很多。

通過投資某家個人公司或少部分公司，你從市場中抽身而出，選擇了那些你認為無論宏觀市場表現如何，它們的特質都可以讓你作為投資者獲利的公司。這樣的話，你把一種風險轉化為了另一種——你的財富更多地綁定在了相對較少的資產上。

現金和房地產的誘惑

當然，在焦慮的時代，最沒有風險的資產之一就是現金。Tiger 21的會員平均有11%的資產是現金。為許多Tiger會員服務的財富管理公司Claraphi Advisory Network的首席執行官瓦利·納斯爾表示，他的很多客戶持有的現金占到了資產的25%到30%。對大部分投資者而言，這個比例太高了，不過納斯爾的客戶通常都接近退休，凈資產至少有200萬美元，他們承擔不了在退休之前投資大虧的風險。

納斯爾認為，出于保險的考慮，現金“比起債券或其他手段，如今是一個好得多的選擇”。對于長期債券而言，這點尤其正確，因為利率提高也會擠壓價格。囤積現金的風險在于，你得自己把握時機——而你很難預測何時應該把這筆錢重新投回股票或債券。而隨著時間的推移，顯然，現金的價值會被通貨膨脹侵蝕。

納斯爾認為房地產也是一種與整體市場關聯不大的資產。2008年的金融危機和股市跳水，與房地產的崩潰不謀而合，但從歷史上看，這樣的關聯只是一次特殊情況，而非慣例。

對沖基金是另一個選擇，不過它們的費用很高，許多交易型開放式指數基金的衍生品也是一樣，它們尚未證明自己的價值。不過，盡管對沖基金在股市強勁時表現不佳，但一些基金，尤其是那些著重于管理期貨的基金，在金融危機期間的表現卻優于市場平均水平。

這些都是抵御股市風險的平衡做法。長期來看，防御策略的意思就是判斷哪些風險你可以承擔，哪些則是你無法承受的。（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

The investing support group Tiger 21 has about 580 members, most of them entrepreneurs who have sold their businesses. They meet regularly to provide advice and peer feedback on each other’s investment strategies. Michael Sonnenfeldt, creator of the group, says that lately, his members are dealing with growing unknowns in the market by moving more of their funds into assets where they can help shape success—and have some control over the outcome.

The stock and bond investing climates, of course, have been friendly for several years running. But with the Federal Reserve committed to increasing interest rates, stock valuations sharply elevated as the bull run approaches its 9th birthday, and national security concerns rising, there’s a growing belief among many observers that we’re due for a pullback. (Experts recently discussed these concerns at length while sitting at Fortune’s annual investment roundtable.)

Many investors are reacting to the unknowns by moving their assets to protect their portfolios against a market downturn. Looking for a defensive strategy usually means increasing exposure to an asset class that isn’t correlated with stocks or bonds—whether it’s gold, or Bitcoin, or real estate, or your brother-in-law’s latest invention. Each of these assets is risky in its own right, of course—and to put most or all of your money in any one would be a very edgy bet. But the hope is that your defensive assets will register some gains and keep your portfolio afloat if and when the rest of your holdings struggle.

Taking it private

For many entrepreneurs within Tiger 21’s network, private equity (broadly defined) provides the opportunity to decrease exposure to stocks or bonds. Over the past decade, “the single largest asset allocation shift” of these wealthy business people has been into private equity, says Sonnenfeldt, with the average allocation to that category growing from 10% to 21% today.

Private equity can mean taking a stake in a new, promising firm as an angel investor or venture capitalist. It can also include purchasing an established but struggling enterprise that you and a group of investors believe can be revived. A big enough investment could put you on the board of directors of the individual company, particularly if it’s in an early stage of development (an appealing prospect to someone with entrepreneurial expertise). Other Tiger 21 investors pool their money in funds raised by private equity firms; that structure limits their input, but decreases the amount of day-to-day attention they need to give the investment.

By betting on an individual company or on selective small pools of companies, you’re moving away from the market, choosing firms that you believe have unique characteristics that could benefit you as an investor no matter what happens on a macro level. So you’ve swapped one kind of risk for another kind—the exposure that comes with having more of your wealth tied up in relatively few assets.

The allure of cash and real estate

Of course, one of the only truly risk-free assets in anxious times is cash. Tiger 21’s clients on average have about 11% of their assets in cash. Vali Nasr, CEO of wealth manager Claraphi Advisory Network, which serves many Tiger members, says many of his clients have a 25% to 30% stake in cash. That’s high for most investors, but Nasr’s typical clients are nearing retirement with at least $2 million in net worth—and can’t risk taking a large hit to their portfolio right before stepping away from the job.

Nasr views cash as a “much better alternative these days than being in bonds or other instruments” for defensive purposes. That’s especially true with regard to long-term bonds, where rising interest rates could squeeze prices. The risk of hoarding cash: It gets you into market-timing territory—since it’s hard to predict when it might be a good time to plow that money back into stocks or bonds. And over time, of course, the value of cash gets eaten alive by inflation.

Nasr also sees real estate as an asset class that has little correlation to the overall market. The 2008 financial crisis and stock market plunge coincided with a real estate crash, but historically such correlation has been the exception rather than the rule.

Hedge funds are another option, but they come with high fees, as do some of their ETF offshoots, which have yet to prove their worth. Still, while hedge funds generally don’t do well when the stock market is strong, some funds, particularly ones that focus on managed futures, did outperform the market during the financial crisis.

Such is the balancing act of trying to defend against the stock market’s risks. In the long run, playing defense is about deciding which risks you can live with, and which ones you can’t.