比特幣的潛在巨大收益一直吸引著部分投資者，同樣巨大的風(fēng)險則讓一部分投資者敬而遠之。那么大家應(yīng)該把它列入黑色星期五的投資清單嗎？

這種加密貨幣當然會波動。以本月初為例，比特幣在五天時間里暴跌25%，原因是人們擔(dān)心旨在加快處理速度的新版比特幣，也就是比特幣現(xiàn)金（Bitcoin Cash）會削弱比特幣作為支付手段的吸引力。

但這種擔(dān)心并未延續(xù)很長時間。又過了兩天后，投資者信心反轉(zhuǎn)，比特幣價格從低點反彈了18%。到了感恩節(jié)，比特幣已經(jīng)觸及新的高點。

像比特幣和其他加密貨幣這樣引發(fā)意見分歧的投資并不多。引發(fā)混亂的是比特幣的震蕩以及這種技術(shù)能否長期存續(xù)的不確定性。比特幣讓倡導(dǎo)者和黑客在一夜之間成為紙面上的百萬富翁，其他人則認為：各國都在加強比特幣監(jiān)管——目前的比特幣沒有國籍，不屬于任何銀行，是一種“西部荒野”式的支付工具。比特幣將會曇花一現(xiàn)，注定要淡出人們的視線。

但短期結(jié)果很難駁斥。今年1月1日比特幣的價格為964美元，黑色星期五上午它已經(jīng)突破8200美元，漲幅接近800%。包括以太坊和瑞波幣等知名數(shù)字貨幣在內(nèi)，全世界所有加密貨幣的總市值今年上升的速度更甚于以往。

這樣的增長引起了主流機構(gòu)的注意，也促使它們對此加以利用。全球最大期權(quán)期貨交易所所有者CME Group表示，將在今年底以前推出比特幣期貨。此舉讓比特幣的可信度達到了現(xiàn)有貨幣的水平，也為開發(fā)交易所交易基金（ETF）奠定了基礎(chǔ)。基金公司VanEck最近編制了多個指數(shù)來跟蹤一組加密貨幣的動向，這些指數(shù)可以用于建立指數(shù)基金。麥克·諾沃格拉茨在對沖基金公司Fortress Investment Group擔(dān)任基金經(jīng)理時曾說，加密貨幣投資占他個人凈值的10%。最近他預(yù)計，投資公司將在6-8個月后向客戶提供ETF等加密貨幣產(chǎn)品。諾沃格拉茨還說，有了這樣的產(chǎn)品，購買比特幣就會變得更容易，從而使比特幣價格“達到遠高于目前的水平”。

判斷諾沃格拉茨是否正確為時尚早。但比特幣的受歡迎程度讓它在高凈值個人圈子里受到了更多關(guān)注。顧問、CCR Wealth Management首席投資官約翰·馬厄說現(xiàn)在有很多客戶來找他，詢問如何投資比特幣。此外，瑞銀集團首席執(zhí)行官安思杰最近對彭博表示，富裕人群顯示出了更多的好奇心，盡管他們尚未涉足此項投資。

對比特幣的迷戀或遲疑都很容易理解。對于此項投資，要掌握三個要點。

加密貨幣的交易類似于起伏不定的大宗商品

大多數(shù)主流散戶都不把傳統(tǒng)貨幣作為投資對象。比如大家不會手握大量歐元。政府發(fā)行的貨幣往往隨通脹波動，而長期投資的主要目的是戰(zhàn)勝通脹。一些共同基金建立了貨幣倉位，目的是對沖匯率對其回報率的影響，但它們所持的貨幣幾乎不會真的用于創(chuàng)造收益。

加密貨幣的交易情況和貨幣完全不同。一個主要原因是任何既定貨幣的流通中硬幣都會有一個限額。美聯(lián)儲等央行可以而且確實會通過增發(fā)鈔票來管理通脹，并為本國的經(jīng)濟政策提供支持。另一方面，基于控制分配的算法，流通中的比特幣最終將達到2100萬枚的極值。

這讓許多加密貨幣更像是大宗商品，原因是供應(yīng)有限，和黃金或石油一樣。馬厄說，考慮到供給問題，“很難把比特幣視為貨幣”。同時，供應(yīng)有限是比特幣出現(xiàn)波動的另一個原因（如果接受這種資產(chǎn)的機構(gòu)增多，這種情況就可能在某一天發(fā)生改變）。

整個加密貨幣市場依然很小，這也增大了比特幣的震蕩幅度。所有這些交易和投機都出現(xiàn)在目前市值只有2600億美元的市場中（蘋果公司一家的市值就有9000億美元左右）。

贏家通吃嗎？

比特幣背后的技術(shù)，也就是區(qū)塊鏈讓人們相信它將長期存在下去。但沒人能確定有多少依賴區(qū)塊鏈的貨幣能生存下來并繁榮發(fā)展。

比特幣目前的價值和價格在一定程度上源于人們相信它將繼續(xù)作為世界上的主導(dǎo)加密貨幣而發(fā)展下去。但隨著人們開發(fā)、推出和使用新的加密貨幣，比特幣在加密貨幣市值中的比重僅略高于50%。舉例來說，比特幣的競爭對手以太坊于2015年9月上市，目前單價為440美元。

VanEck數(shù)字資產(chǎn)策略部門主管伽柏·顧巴科斯說：“我們根本還不知道誰會贏。”

比特幣現(xiàn)金引發(fā)的恐慌更是凸顯出比特幣并不牢固的地位。另一種加密貨幣可能有很多途徑來顛覆比特幣（想想Facebook的崛起造成了MySpace的消亡）。一些評論人士認為，傳統(tǒng)貨幣可能會在某個時候具有和區(qū)塊鏈類似的特征，這會降低主流市場對加密貨幣的接受度，從而有可能大幅壓低其價值。

加密貨幣基金有代價

機構(gòu)投資者和部分最富裕的個人投資者已經(jīng)有了一些介入加密貨幣市場的手段。加密貨幣研究機構(gòu)Autonomous Next的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至今年10月中旬，已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了84只投資于加密貨幣的對沖基金，2016年這個數(shù)字是11只。但就像這些數(shù)字體現(xiàn)的那樣，此類基金的歷史都不太長，而且許多基金都收取高額管理費和績效費（通常為年度資產(chǎn)的2%，再加上20%的收益），從而降低了回報率。

馬厄把所有投資比特幣或上述基金的客戶視為“冒險者”，盡管他自己也持有比特幣和以太坊。他經(jīng)常借馬克·庫班之名介紹自己的思路，進而回應(yīng)那些想持有比特幣的人。庫班認為，如果想投資加密貨幣，那“就要假裝自己已經(jīng)虧了錢。”

如果能承受那樣的風(fēng)險，你就可以在這個市場中進行交易。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Bitcoin has been luring some investors with potentially huge rewards—and scaring others away with equally big risks. Should it be on your investment shopping list on Black Friday?

The cryptocurrency can certainly be volatile. Earlier this month, for example, it plummeted 25% over five days after concerns grew that a new currency called Bitcoin Cash, which promises to speed up transactions, would make Bitcoin itself a less attractive payment option.

That fear didn’t last long. Over a subsequent two-day span, investor sentiment reversed and the price jumped up 18% from its lows; by Thanksgiving, Bitcoin ha。d soared to new highs.

Not many investments engender the differences in opinion that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies create. It’s that volatility, and uncertainty about the technology’s long-term viability, that breeds whirlwind days. The currency has turned evangelists and hackers into paper millionaires overnight, while others see it as a fad, doomed to fade as countries add regulations onto what’s currently a stateless, bankless Wild West of payment tools.

Still, it’s hard to argue with the short-term results. On New Year’s Day, a single Bitcoin was worth $964; by Black Friday morning its value had passed $8,200, a gain of nearly 800%. Taken together, the market capitalizations of all the world’s cryptocurrencies, including other prominent players like Ethereum and Ripple, have risen even faster this year.

This growth has pushed mainstream institutions to take notice and capitalize. CME Group, the world’s largest options and futures exchange owner, announced it would offer Bitcoin futures by the end of the year. That move would give Bitcoin a level of credibility that established currencies have, and also provide an infrastructure for developing exchange-traded funds (ETF). Money manager VanEck recently developed indices to track a group of cryptocurrencies’ movements, which could be used to develop index funds. And Mike Novogratz—a former manager at the hedge fund Fortress Investment Group who says he has 10% of his net worth in cryptocoins—recently estmiated it would be six to eight months before investment firms start to offer cryptocurrency products, like ETFs, to their clients. When they do, he added, it will make the buying process easier, allowing for the price “to go much higher.”

It’s too early to say whether Novogratz is right. But the currencies’ popularity is generating more interest in the high net worth space. John Maher, an advisor and CIO at CCR Wealth Management, says that he now has numerous clients coming to him, asking about how to invest in the currency. Meanwhile, UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti recently told Bloomberg that the wealthy have shown an increase in curiosity, even if they haven’t bitten on the investment.

It’s easy to understand the intrigue and hesitancy. Here are three important things to know about investing in the space.

Cryptocurrencies trade like volatile commodities

Traditional currencies aren’t a vehicle that most mainstream “retail” investors own. You don’t take a large stake in Euros, for example. State-sponsored currencies tend to move with inflation while the primary goal of long-term investing is to beat inflation. Some mutual funds own positions in currencies as a way to hedge against the impact of exchange rates on their returns, but the currencies are seldom used to actually generate returns.

But cryptocurrencies don’t really trade like currencies at all. One of the primary reasons for that is that there’s a cap on the number of coins that any given currency will ever have in circulation. Central banks like the Federal Reserve can and do print more money to manage inflation and support their countries’ economic policies. Bitcoin, on the other hand, will eventually have a maximum of 21 million coins in circulation, based on the algorithm that controls distribution.

This makes many cryptocurrencies much more like commodities, since there’s a finite supply, like with gold or oil. “It’s difficult to look at Bitcoin as a currency,” because of this supply issue, says Maher. And the limited supply is one reason for Bitcoin’s volatility. (That could change some day if more institutions embrace the asset.)

Volatility is also increased by the fact that the overall cyrptocurrency market is still tiny. All this trading and speculation is happening in a field where the total market cap is currently only about $260 billion. (Apple alone has a market cap of about $900 billion.)

Is it winner-take-all?

The technology behind Bitcoin—the blockchain—has people convinced it will last long-term. But nobody is sure how many of the currencies that rely on blockchains will survive and thrive.

Bitcoin’s current value and price is partly based on the belief that it will continue to grow as the predominant cryptocurrency in the world. Yet it only accounts for just over half of the crypto market capitalization, as new currencies are developed, launched and spent. The competitor coin Ethereum, for example, launched in September 2015 and is now worth $440 per coin.

“We simply don’t know the winners,” says Gabor Gurbacs, director of digital asset strategy at VanEck.

The Bitcoin cash scare only highlighted Bitcoin’s loose hold on the space. There’s many ways another player could up-end it (think of the way that Facebook’s rise led to MySpace’s demise). Some commentators believe traditional currencies could someday adopt blockchain-like characteristics, which would cut into cryptocurrencies’ mainstream acceptance—potentially crushing their value.

Cryptofunds will cost you

Institutional investors, and some of the wealthiest individual investors, already have some options for playing the cryptocurrency market. Through mid-October, 84 new crypto hedge funds that invest in the currencies have emerged, up from 11 in 2016, according to cryptocurrency research firm Autonomous Next. As the numbers suggest, however, these funds don’t have much of a track record. And many of these hedge funds charge hefty management and performance fees (often 2% of assets annually, plus 20% of any profits), eating into returns.

Maher considers any of his clients investing in Bitcoin or the funds “the risk takers,” among his client portfolio, even though he owns Bitcoin and Ethereum himself. Maher often responds to those who want to take a stake by offering the thoughts of Mark Cuban. If you want to invest in cryptocurrency, Cuban said, then “pretend you’ve already lost your money.”

If you can stomach that kind of risk, you can handle trading in this market.