瑞士銀行瑞信的分析師稱，最富有人士雖然人數僅占全球人口1%，但占有的財富相當于全球半數以上家庭財富總和。他們預計，未來幾年貧富差距還將擴大，尤其是“千禧一代”生活將特別艱難。

最近瑞信發布了最新版《全球財富報告》。瑞信在同日發布的聲明中還提到一句公認的常識：“百萬富翁比財富金字塔底層的人前途更光明。”

瑞信研究顯示，按美元計全球百萬富翁越來越多。這部分源于歐元升值，德國、法國、意大利和西班牙合計增加了62萬名百萬富翁。（另一方面，英鎊和日元貶值則導致英國和日本各自減少了3.4萬和30萬名百萬富翁。）

但將近半數新增的美元資產百萬富翁都出自美國。瑞信國際財富管理業務首席投資官邁克爾·奧沙利文指出：“目前來看，特朗普政府治理下，企業蓬勃發展，就業增長，美聯儲持續的支持也起到了一定作用，但貧富差距仍然是突出的問題。”

瑞信預計，到2022年美元資產的百萬富翁將增加22%，從3600萬人增加到4400萬人。問題是，同期資產不足1萬美元的成年人可能僅會減少4%。

瑞信的研究員認為財富不平等主要源自金融危機，并在2007年到2016年逐漸蔓延全球，原因是金融資產增長速度超過了非金融類資產。本世紀初，占總人口1%的最富有人士擁有財富占全世界的45.5%，如今這一比例升至50.1%。

瑞信認為，2016年年中以來形勢比較復雜，非金融類資產相關財富增長“顯著”，可貧富差距還在擴大。

研究人員稱：“今年非洲、亞太和拉丁美洲的成年人人均財富增加，但個人財富中位值再次下滑。我們對2022年的預測顯示，未來幾年情況更不樂觀。”

“全球財富分配底層有35億人，他們占全球成年人總人口的70%，個人財富均不足1萬美元。在年輕人里，處于財富底層的人占比更高，他們幾乎沒有機會積攢資產。我們發現，跟其他年齡段的人相比，千禧一代面對的挑戰尤其大。”這些研究人員寫道。

本質上來說，千禧一代更有可能失業、收入較低、買不起房，而且可能拿不到養老金。1954年到1964年出生的嬰兒潮一代占據大部分財富和房產，所以“比起父母年輕時，千禧一代生活要慘一些。”

千禧一代可能比前幾代人受教育多，但瑞信的研究人員預計，只有“少數成功人士以及在科技、金融等高需求行業工作的人，才有機會克服‘千禧一代的劣勢’。”（財富中文網）

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林?

The richest 1% now owns more than half of all the world’s household wealth, according to analysts at Credit Suisse. And they say inequality is only going to get worse over the coming years, with millennials having a particularly tough time.

The Swiss bank released its latest Global Wealth Report on Tuesday, together with a statement that contained the immortal phrase, “The outlook for the millionaire segment is more optimistic than for the bottom of the wealth pyramid.”

The research showed that there are increasing numbers of dollar millionaires. This is partly because the strength of the euro has created 620,000 more of them in Germany, France, Italy and Spain (conversely, depreciating currencies in the U.K. and Japan have seen 34,000 and over 300,000 people in those countries respectively lose the status).

But almost half of the new dollar millionaires are in the U.S. itself. “So far, the Trump Presidency has seen businesses flourish and employment grow, though the ongoing supportive role played by the Federal Reserve has undoubtedly played a part here as well, and wealth inequality remains a prominent issue,” said Michael O’Sullivan, CIO for International Wealth Management at Credit Suisse.

Credit Suisse expects to see a 22% rise in dollar millionaires by 2022, from 36 million to 44 million. The problem is, the numbers of adults who have less than $10,000 are expected to shrink by only 4%.

The bank’s researchers see wealth inequality as largely being a result of the financial crisis— it rose across the world between 2007 and 2016, because financial assets were growing faster than non-financial assets. The top 1% started the millennium owning 45.5% of all wealth, and now they have 50.1%.

As for what’s been happening since mid-2016, Credit Suisse described a mixed picture. Non-financial wealth has been increasing “substantially,” but inequality is still rising.

“Despite higher mean wealth per adult, median wealth fell again this year in Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Our projections for 2022 suggest more pessimistic scenarios for the immediate years ahead,” the researchers said.

“Looking at the bottom of the wealth distribution, 3.5 billion people—corresponding to 70% of all adults in the world—own less than $10,000. Those with low wealth tend to be disproportionately found among the younger age groups, who have had little chance to accumulate assets, but we find that millennials face particularly challenging circumstances compared to other generations,” they wrote.

Essentially, millennials are more likely to be unemployed or earning less, priced out of the housing market, and unable to get a pension. Baby boomers have most of the wealth and the housing, so “millennials are doing less well than their parents at the same age.”

Millennials may be better educated than earlier generations, but Credit Suisse’s researchers said they expected only a “minority of high achievers and those in high-demand sectors such as technology or finance to effectively overcome the ‘millennial disadvantage.'”