一年前，唐納德·特朗普贏得大選出任美國總統，投資者也開始押注，在奉行貿易保護主義的共和黨政府領導下哪些個股會是最大贏家。

投資者認定，既然特朗普承諾要“拯救”美國煤炭行業，能源企業定會受益。由于預期特朗普會增加基礎設施方面的支出，鋼鐵生產商股價大幅走高。同時，因為特朗普支持廢除金融監管法《多德-弗蘭克法案》，高盛之類金融巨頭發展空間可能增大。另一方面，投資者擔心硅谷會因為特朗普擬推出的限制移民和反自由貿易政策而受打擊。

那么，在特朗普當選之初做的這些預測之中，哪些料中了？哪些個股買對了？

一年后事實證明，押注英偉達之類半導體制造商的投資者收獲頗豐。

特朗普當選以來，標普500指數累計上漲21%，而標普半導體精選行業指數同期漲幅超過41%，該指數追蹤芯片制造企業，其產品廣泛用于手機、電腦、游戲顯卡和人工智能技術等。如下圖所示，特朗普當選后表現最佳的九只個股之中，有四只都來自半導體板塊，分別是應用材料公司 、泛林集團、 美光科技和英偉達。

幾家歡樂幾家愁。特朗普當選后表現最差的個股是能源公司和零售商，因為所謂“特朗普沖擊”既沒能提振疲軟的油價，也沒法緩解來自電商更激烈的競爭對實體店的沖擊。

特朗普當選一年來，美國運動裝生產商安德瑪股價暴跌61%，跌幅在一眾下挫個股中幅度最大。不過其股價重挫基本和白宮發布的政策無關，問題應該是消費者對“運動休閑”的興趣大為降低。

美國大選以來，美股大贏家和大輸家座次已經改變。雖然某種程度上跟白宮關系不大，但并不代表之前的“特朗普交易”已經崩盤。追蹤金融業個股表現的指數標普500金融指數大選以來漲了32%。

同時，由于全球經濟前景向好，總體來看投資者收益尚可。以標普500指數來看，特朗普當選以來美股累計漲幅達21%。（財富中文網）

譯者：Pessy

審稿：夏林

In the days following then-nominee Donald Trump’s election a year ago today, investors placed their bets on the biggest winners under a Republican-led, protectionist leadership team.

Those investors decided energy companies would win under Trump’s promise to “save” the country’s coal industry. Steel makers soared on hopes of infrastructure spending. Meanwhile, financial giants like Goldman Sachs (GS, +0.57%) were expected to get a breather from the president-elect’s stance on deregulating Dodd-Frank. On the downside, investors worried that Silicon Valley would come in for a whipping once Trump enacted his anti-immigration and anti-trade policies.

So who got it right in the early days of president-elect Trump? Which were the best stocks to buy?

Well, as it turns out a year later, investors who bet big on semiconductor makers such as Nvidia (NVDA, -1.39%).

While the S&P 500 has gained 21% since Trump’s election, the S&P Semiconductor Select Industry Index, which tracks companies that make chips used in everything from cell phones and computers to gaming graphics cards and artificial intelligence technology, has gained over 41%. Notably, four of the nine companies in our chart (below) of best performing stocks since Trump’s election are in the semiconductor sector. They are Applied Materials (AMAT, +0.81%), LAM Research (LRCX, +0.98%), Micron Technology (MU, +0.57%), and Nvidia.

On the flip side, the worst stocks to buy since the Trump election are energy companies and retailers, as the “Trump bump” has not been able to stave off weak oil prices and or save physical stores from increased competition from e-commerce.

Athletics apparel maker Under Armour (UAA, +0.76%) leads the crowd of biggest stock market losers in Trump’s first year, having fallen 61% on issues largely independent of the White House’s influence. The trouble for Under Armour it seems is dying interest in “athleisure.”

Still, while the stock market’s biggest winners and losers have shifted since the election, and to an extent, decoupled from actions in the White House, that’s not to say early “Trump trades” were a bust. An index tracking the stock performance of financial companies, the S&P 500 Financials Index, has risen 32% since the elections.

Meanwhile, investors in general have benefited from a rosier global economic outlook. The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 has risen 21% since Trump’s election.