上周五比特幣價格首次突破6000美元關口，或許你覺得已錯過買入機會，但看完以下觀點你可能會改變想法。

上周真是過山車一般。僅在本月比特幣價格漲幅已超過42%，較三天前的低點也漲了20%，其收益足令任何一只股票汗顏，也讓不斷發出警告聲的摩根大通首席執行官杰米·戴蒙和前任美聯儲主席本·伯南克打臉。上周六中午，比特幣成交價接近6200美元。如今，不少投資者都很煩躁，擔心如果繼續觀望會錯過一輩子難得的發財機會。

當然了，歷史上傳奇地位的投資大佬們，比如沃倫·巴菲特都建議資產價格高的時候不要追漲，都說賺錢最好的方法是低價買入，當然更好是成功賣高。但一位頗具影響力的分析師兼投資者做了張圖，解釋為何他認為比特幣價格還能繼續漲。遭遇下個拐點之前最高可觸及7400美元。

If you thought you missed your chance to buy Bitcoin when the price broke $6,000 for the first time Friday, there’s one argument that might convince you otherwise.

It’s not for the faint of heart. But with the Bitcoin price up more than 42% this month alone, and up 20% from its low just three days ago, the cryptocurrency’s returns have beaten just about everything available on the stock market, defying repeated warnings from the likes of J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon and former Fed chair Ben Bernanke. As of midday Saturday, Bitcoin was trading at nearly $6,200. Now, investors are fretting they’ll miss out on the windfall of a lifetime if they wait any longer.

Historically, of course, legendary investors such as Warren Buffett have advised against buying assets when their price is high, arguing that the best way to make money is to buy low, and, ideally, sell high. Yet a chart created by an influential analyst and investor illustrates why he predicts the Bitcoin price could go higher still — and in fact, may reach as high as $7,400 before its next significant dip.

一位技術行業分析師表示，比特幣價格走勢圖類似接近完美的斐波那契數列，意味著幣價可能進一步走高。

比特幣走勢圖基于技術分析，這種方法略有爭議，因為買入決策完全基于某只股票或某種資產的動態，不考慮基本估值，也不看相關公司或證券未來的機會。有些投資者抵制這種方法，認為這是在試圖預測市場，這點可是出了名的難。但證據顯示該分析方法有時比較準。

如果要說技術分析最適用的地方，可能就是比特幣了，比特幣價格跟公司無關，也沒聯上任何貨幣或資產，連實際應用都沒關系。此外，比特幣價格基本上反映了炒作和對長期潛力的抽象預期，所以價格不僅起伏無定，還常有不太尋常的波狀走勢，愛好者稱之為“波動”，創新高之前調整30%都很正常。

這種情況下，市場技術分析師，也是All Star Charts總裁兼創始人 JC Parets觀察發現，比特幣價格每隔一段時間上升的規律類似斐波那契數列，這種數列是著名的數學現象，自然界里也很常見，從貝殼的內部螺旋花紋到松果都符合規律。

“說起斐波那契數列，嘿，比特幣走勢難道還不夠明顯？”上周Parets在Stocktoberfest論壇發表演講時說，該論壇由金融社交媒體Stocktwits在加州科羅納多舉辦。按照斐波那契數列規則，下一段波動的長度等于前兩個波段長度之和。Parets在之前繪制的圖表中顯示，比特幣從超過2013年高點后持續反彈，基本符合規律，即每段上漲的百分比都可按斐波那契數列準確預測。

“看看，簡直一點不差，” Parets補充說。他又用下表進一步說明。

The Bitcoin price chart mirrors a near-perfect Fibonacci sequence, a sign that the cryptocurrency could rise higher still, according to technical analysis.

Chart by JC Parets, All Star Charts

The Bitcoin chart relies on technical analysis, a field of investing that is somewhat controversial because buying decisions are based on the movement of a particular stock or other asset, rather than on the fundamental valuation or future opportunity of the underlying company or security. While some investors reject this approach as trying to time the market — a notoriously difficult task — there is evidence that it can sometimes pay off.

And if there were ever a time to use technical analysis, it might be with Bitcoin, whose price is not tied to any company, nor pegged to any other currency or asset, nor even related to an actual use case. What’s more, the Bitcoin price, which largely trades on hype and abstract visions of its long-term potential, is not only exceptionally volatile, but tends to trade in an unusual undulating formation that enthusiasts have come to call “waves” — where a correction of as much as 30% is common between new highs.

In this case, JC Parets, a chartered market technician who is the president and founder of All Star Charts, observed that the price of Bitcoin has moved upward at intervals resembling the Fibonacci sequence, a famous mathematical pattern that also occurs in nature in everything from the inner spiral of a seashell to pinecones.

“Talk about Fibonacci—I mean, dude, does it get any cleaner than this?” Parets said last week in a presentation at the Stocktoberfest conference, hosted by the financial social media site Stocktwits in Coronado, Calif. With Fibonacci, the length of the next segment is equal to the sum of the two preceding segments. In Parets’ chart above, he shows that Bitcoin’s rallies, since the price surpassed its 2013 high, have followed a similar pattern, where each new leg up corresponds to a percentage increase as predicted by the Fibonacci series.

“I mean, guys, this is like to the penny,” Parets added. He breaks it down further in the chart below.

比特幣每次反彈，價格上漲的幅度都可用著名的數學公式斐波那契數列準確預測。

不過Parets表示，這一規律僅在比特幣價格高于4700美元左右時適用。但只要能一直保持高位，他相信幣價可以漲到至少7400美元以上。目前Parets對比特幣的預期價還相對保守：6500美元。

“其實比特幣漲到三倍還是跌倒一文不值，我一點也不關心，真的不關心。不過從風險回報角度來看，我更希望漲，”他表示。“如果幣價一直在4700美元以上，可以按6500美元的目標價做多，風險回報率還是很高的，之后再跌到0美元吧！”

補充說明一點：Parets對比特幣價格的預估并未指明具體時間，也就是說可能會立刻發生，也可能會花上幾年，只要一直遵從斐波那契數列就行。

“是的，理論上說今晚就可能漲到目標價，”比特幣價格突破6000美元時他對《財富》雜志表示。“誰知道呢？”（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

With each new Bitcoin rally, its price has moved up in predictable increments corresponding to the Fibonacci sequence, a famous mathematical pattern.

The prediction only holds, Parets maintains, if the Bitcoin price remains above roughly $4,700. But as long as it does, he believes Bitcoin could rise to at least about $7,400, as indicated in the chart. For now, though, Parets is giving Bitcoin a more conservative price target: $6,500.

“I don’t care if Bitcoin triples or goes to zero, I really don’t care at all, but from a risk-reward standpoint, I love it long,” he said. “If we’re above $4,700, we want to be long with a target of $6,500 — that’s a great risk-reward, let it go to zero after that!”

One caveat: Parets’ Bitcoin price prediction does not have any timeline attached, which means it could happen imminently, or not for years — as long as it continues to mirror the Fibonacci sequence.

“Yes, theoretically, it can hit our targets tonight,” he told Fortune after Bitcoin passed the $6,000 mark. “Who knows?”