美股最近一段時期進入了瘋漲階段，過去18個月，美股大盤上漲了近三分之一，股價每天都在破紀錄地往上躥，而且幾乎是一條直線地往上漲，股市的波動性降至有史以來的最低點。

不過如果你是個普通股民，切記“盈不可久”這一點，因為這個沖天大牛市可能很快只剩回憶了。股市很快就將迎來重大調整，也就是說大盤將下跌超過10%。接下來的幾年，股票收益即便還有，恐怕也是微不足道的。

并不是說美股已經成了一個馬上就會破裂的大泡泡。泡沫這種東西是被大眾的投機心理吹起來的，也就是說，股民之所以購買一支股票，僅僅是因為這支股票最近漲勢不錯，因此股民認為它在可見的將來還會繼續漲下去。這種特點與2000年前后的科技泡沫有異曲同工之妙。在2000年前后，有大量散戶買入了“.com”概念的股票，很多人甚至壓根不知道互聯網是個什么東西。當時大多數互聯網公司是不賺錢的，業務模式能夠盈利的網絡公司也是鳳毛麟角。當時保證金負債的大行其道也對互聯網泡沫起了推波助瀾的作用。很多投資者為了購入更多股票，甚至以手中的股份作抵押，舉借更多債務購買股票。

當然，現今的美股市場上也不乏投機者，這一點從Facebook、亞馬遜、奈飛和谷歌等公司不斷飆升的股價上就能看出來。區別是這幾家公司的業務模式還是相當穩健的，他們不僅有海量的全球用戶群，而且產品與服務也在不斷進化。另外今天的投資者也更懂得趨利避害，往往不會持有那些講不好故事的公司——想想Twitter和Snap。另外投資者對保險金負債也保持著警惕，目前保險金負債的水平仍低于互聯網泡沫時期。

我之所以對美股市場的前景表示懷疑，并非是因為擔心廣域經域即將下滑，從而影響企業收益及股市表現。每次經濟危機的序曲都是股市的震蕩，但歷史上也有過多次股市下跌而整體經濟依然保持增長的例子。這一次很可能也會這樣。

目前，美國經濟和企業界大體是健康的。歸功于企業營收的穩健增長，企業利潤作為股價的根本支撐點，目前看來還是較為可觀的。尤其是目前全球經濟已經重回正軌，而且美元也停止了升值。另外，企業利潤率處于較為理想的水平，雖然企業在提價上面臨一定困難，但他們在控制成本上做得還是很不錯的。

那么我為什么對美股感到悲觀呢？首先是因為現在的股市被高估了。也就是說，盡管企業營收的展望向好，但相比之下股價還是太高了。過去半個世紀以來，股價唯一一次瘋漲到這個地步，就是2000年前后的科技泡沫時期。實際上，現在的股價比1987年股災時還要高估了。

目前的企業收益雖然不錯，但收益的漲幅必然要下降，因為企業要想留住員工，就必須要給他們加薪，更不用說他們還要招聘新的員工。隨著美國的失業率下降至4%左右，美國的工資增長必將出現緩慢而穩健的提速。相應地，企業會迅速通過漲價的方式做出回應，但漲價的代價并不會完全轉嫁到消費者身上，企業的利潤必將會承受一定壓力。

面對工資和物價上漲的壓力，美聯儲必然需要提高短期利率，開始縮緊銀根，從而導致長期利率的上漲。一旦利率開始上漲，投資者就難以繼續維持對股市的熱情。高利率也使企業更加難以借錢進行股票回股——而回購則是在牛市時的一個普遍做法。

其次還要考慮到華盛頓的因素。到目前為止，華盛頓的“功能障礙”倒并不是一個問題，這只是意味著華盛頓的立法者們啥事也沒干而已。對于一個增長中的經濟來說，“無為而治”而是一種不錯的做法。不過要不了多久，華盛頓的立法者們就要決定，是批準政府運算，還是再來上一次“政府關門”；是抬高國債限額，還是冒一冒讓全球金融體系癱瘓的風險。稅收改革也是件好事，然而即便改革真的實施了，也有可能達不到投資者的心理預期。

當然，對于股市何時調整，并沒有一個時間節點。它有可能明天就發生，也有可能是下個季度甚至明年才會發生。即便這樣，它離我們也已經不遠了。（財富中文網）

本文作者Mark Zandi是穆迪分析公司的首席經濟學家。他對文中所提到的所有公司都有投資。

?譯者：賈政景

Investors have enjoyed an amazing run. Stock prices are up by nearly a third over the past 18 months and seem to be hitting new record highs daily. And the run-up has been almost a straight line, with stock price volatility—the ups and downs in prices—the lowest it has ever been.

But if you are an investor, soak all of this in, because it will soon be nothing but a memory. The stock market is due for a significant correction—defined as a greater than 10% decline in stock prices—and stock returns in the next several years will be very pedestrian if they increase at all.

It’s not that the stock market is a bubble ready to burst. Bubbles are created by speculation, when investors buy a stock simply because its price has risen strongly in the recent past, and therefore conclude it will rise strongly in the foreseeable future. This clearly characterized the tech bubble that inflated around Y2K. Investors piled into the stocks of dot-com companies, many without even understanding what the Internet was. Most of the companies weren’t making any money, and few had business models that seemed likely to ever generate profits. That bubble was also fueled by margin debt, as investors borrowed aggressively against their stock holdings to purchase even more stocks.

To be sure, there are speculators in today’s market, as is clear from surging prices for the FANG companies—Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google. The difference is that these are real companies that share a compelling business model—build out a massive global network of users that rely on their quickly evolving products and services. Today’s investors are also being discerning by shunning the stocks of companies that don’t have a clear story—think Twitter or Snap. And investors remain cautious users of margin debt, which is no higher today than it was in the heyday of the tech bubble.

My skepticism around stocks is also not rooted in some fear that the broader economy is ready to tank, thus undermining corporate earnings and the stock market. Every recession is presaged by a downturn in the stock market, but there are many cases historically where stocks decline and the economy keeps ticking along. This will be one of those times.

The economy and corporate America are in good shape. Corporate profits, the fundamental support for stock prices, are being powered by solid revenue gains, particularly now that the global economy is back on track and the U.S. dollar is no longer rising in value. Margins are also wide despite businesses’ difficulty raising prices more quickly, because they’ve done a great job managing costs.

So why am I pessimistic? The stock market is overvalued. That is, stock prices are much too high despite the good outlook for corporate earnings. The only other time in the past half century that stock prices have been so highly priced was during the tech bubble. Yes, they’re even more overpriced now than prior to the 1987 market crash.

Corporate earnings are good, but they are set to grow more slowly, since businesses will have to give their employees bigger pay increases to hold onto them, let alone hire new workers. With unemployment falling toward 4%, wages will slowly, but steadily accelerate. Businesses will respond by raising prices more quickly, but they won’t be able to pass through all of their higher costs to customers. Margins will come under pressure.

Intensifying wage and price pressures means that the Federal Reserve will need to raise short-term interest rates more consistently, and begin to wind down its balance sheet, which will cause long-term rates to rise. It is hard to see investors being as enthusiastic about stocks when interest rates are rising. Higher rates will also make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money to buy back their stock, a common practice in the current bull market.

Then there is Washington. So far, the dysfunction there hasn’t been a problem; it has only meant that lawmakers have done nothing. That is fine for a growing economy. But doing nothing won’t be a winning strategy for much longer. Lawmakers must soon agree on a budget or risk shutting the government down, and they must raise the Treasury debt limit or risk shutting down the global financial system. Tax reform would be nice, but odds are that if there is reform it will fall short of what investors desire.

Of course, there is no timing a stock market correction. It could happen tomorrow, next quarter, or next year. But that time is at hand.