這是對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的糟糕信號(hào)：就在聯(lián)邦政府取消“舊車(chē)換現(xiàn)金”項(xiàng)目促進(jìn)汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量后的一年，汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量跌幅達(dá)到了2010年8月以來(lái)的最大值。

通用汽車(chē)7月的銷(xiāo)量下跌了15%，創(chuàng)一年多來(lái)的最大跌幅。他們?cè)诘滋芈傻母?jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手也好不了多少：福特汽車(chē)的銷(xiāo)量下滑幅度乃是去年10月以來(lái)最大，而菲亞特-克萊斯勒今年的下跌之勢(shì)也是公司史上第二糟糕的境況。

這些令人失望的數(shù)據(jù)，凸顯了底特律在實(shí)現(xiàn)特朗普總統(tǒng)對(duì)其“再次成為全球汽車(chē)之都”的期許過(guò)程中的掙扎。這些本土汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商開(kāi)始解雇美國(guó)工人，尤其是那些生產(chǎn)轎車(chē)的工人，這些汽車(chē)已經(jīng)不再受到美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的青睞。人們對(duì)汽車(chē)需求的減少，導(dǎo)致了在該領(lǐng)域的支出降低，這也給美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)拖了后腿，而多年來(lái)，汽車(chē)業(yè)本為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展立下過(guò)汗馬功勞。

芝加哥DS Economics的首席執(zhí)行官和創(chuàng)始人黛安·史萬(wàn)克表示：“你不可能給經(jīng)濟(jì)賒賬。汽車(chē)業(yè)比其他行業(yè)表現(xiàn)更加強(qiáng)勁，這種情況持續(xù)了好一陣子，原因在于他們給那些付不起貸款的人借貸了。銷(xiāo)量會(huì)很快提升，但現(xiàn)在他們要付出代價(jià)了。”

傳統(tǒng)美國(guó)汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商的銷(xiāo)量下滑幅度都超出了分析師在彭博新聞?wù){(diào)查中給出的預(yù)期。日產(chǎn)汽車(chē)和本田汽車(chē)比預(yù)期的情況稍好，但出現(xiàn)銷(xiāo)量增長(zhǎng)的只有豐田汽車(chē)。

整個(gè)行業(yè)的出貨量下滑了7%，也是“舊車(chē)換現(xiàn)金”項(xiàng)目終止一年以來(lái)的最大跌幅。后者是2009年8月起實(shí)施的一個(gè)項(xiàng)目，由于消費(fèi)者借此更換了更加節(jié)能的車(chē)型，也促進(jìn)了美國(guó)汽車(chē)的銷(xiāo)量。

Autodata Corp.的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，輕型車(chē)輛的銷(xiāo)量經(jīng)過(guò)季節(jié)性變化的修正，在7月下滑到了1,680萬(wàn)輛，而去年同期則是1,780萬(wàn)輛。分析師普遍估計(jì)的銷(xiāo)量是1,700萬(wàn)輛。

存貨過(guò)多

通用汽車(chē)的汽車(chē)庫(kù)存可以支持104天，遠(yuǎn)超年終目標(biāo)的約70天。高管表示，他們計(jì)劃今年下半年削減在北美的汽車(chē)產(chǎn)量，與上半年相比會(huì)減少15萬(wàn)輛。

盡管通用汽車(chē)計(jì)劃的工廠(chǎng)停工，其部分原因在于更換設(shè)備用于升級(jí)車(chē)型，如非常重要的全尺寸皮卡，但公司也減少了四個(gè)轎車(chē)裝配工廠(chǎng)的當(dāng)班人員，預(yù)計(jì)有五分之一將在9月被解職。

福特計(jì)劃第三季度在北美減少3.4萬(wàn)輛汽車(chē)產(chǎn)量。公司表示產(chǎn)能要匹配需求，并宣布增加肯塔基州卡車(chē)工廠(chǎng)的產(chǎn)量，用于生產(chǎn)新款的福特征服者和林肯領(lǐng)航員SUV。

今年，大部分大型汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商的股價(jià)都落后于美國(guó)股市指數(shù)的基準(zhǔn)值。菲亞特-克萊斯勒是個(gè)例外，消費(fèi)者從轎車(chē)轉(zhuǎn)向皮卡和SUV的品味變化讓他們從中受益。此外還有特斯拉，由于公眾對(duì)更加平價(jià)的Model 3車(chē)型表示期待，公司的股價(jià)也在飆升。

上周二，通用汽車(chē)的股價(jià)下跌3.4%，創(chuàng)今年2月以來(lái)的最大跌幅，福特股價(jià)下跌2.4%，也是三個(gè)月以來(lái)最糟糕的一次。

隨著普通消費(fèi)者和汽車(chē)租賃公司都開(kāi)始削減汽車(chē)購(gòu)買(mǎi)量，汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商需要努力追趕去年下半年的優(yōu)異表現(xiàn)。上個(gè)月，雪佛蘭Impala和福特Fusion的出貨量跳水了約40%。

特朗普的失敗

這些數(shù)據(jù)彰顯了特朗普的失敗。他曾在今年3月對(duì)汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商表示，他會(huì)在環(huán)境標(biāo)準(zhǔn)上給廠(chǎng)商們松綁，希望能夠帶回更多工作崗位。

野村證券國(guó)際公司在紐約的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家劉易斯·亞歷山大表示：“特朗普認(rèn)為，放寬管制會(huì)增加在美國(guó)生產(chǎn)汽車(chē)的吸引力，實(shí)施關(guān)稅也會(huì)促進(jìn)投資，但當(dāng)下如此做不會(huì)有什么效果。”

底特律的傳統(tǒng)汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商還要與日本和其他提供SUV車(chē)型的奢侈品牌競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，并要以前所未有的銷(xiāo)量賣(mài)出汽車(chē)。

IHS Markit的高級(jí)汽車(chē)經(jīng)濟(jì)師彼得·內(nèi)格爾表示：“市場(chǎng)份額如今已經(jīng)被更多具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的廠(chǎng)商瓜分，因此，底特律的汽車(chē)三巨頭也受此影響。”

不過(guò)，內(nèi)格爾補(bǔ)充道，北美工廠(chǎng)已經(jīng)把制造重點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)向了皮卡和SUV，所以消費(fèi)者更青睞大型汽車(chē)對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)是有益的。

他說(shuō)：“我們?cè)谥圃爝@類(lèi)汽車(chē)上確實(shí)擁有特長(zhǎng)。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

Here’s a bad sign for the U.S. economy: Auto sales just fell the most since August 2010, a year after the federal government’s “Cash for Clunkers” program to stimulate demand came to an end.

Sales at General Motors Co. plunged 15 percent in its home market in July, the biggest drop in more than a year. Its Detroit rivals didn’t fare much better: Ford Motor Co. reported its biggest sales decline since October and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV had its second worst tumble this year.

The disappointing showing underscores how Detroit has been struggling to live up to President Donald Trump’s prediction that it would become “the car capital of the world again.” The hometown automakers are instead laying off U.S. workers, particularly those who build passenger cars that have fallen out of favor with American consumers. A demand slump has rendered spending on vehicles and parts a drag on U.S. economic growth, after years of contributing to expansion.

“You can’t jawbone the economy,” said Diane Swonk, chief executive officer and founder of DS Economics in Chicago. “The auto industry was stronger than the rest of the economy for a while because they were giving credit to people who couldn’t pay loans. Sales crested sooner and now they are paying the price.”

The traditional U.S. automakers each missed projections for declines that analysts gave in a Bloomberg News survey. While Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co. both beat projections, only Toyota Motor Corp. posted a gain.

Industrywide deliveries fell 7 percent, the steepest drop since the anniversary of “Cash for Clunkers,” a program that inflated U.S. sales in August 2009 as buyers traded in for more fuel-efficient wheels.

The annualized pace of light-vehicle sales, adjusted for seasonal trends, slowed to 16.8 million in July, according to Autodata Corp., from 17.8 million a year earlier. The average analyst estimate was for a 17 million rate.

Inventory Glut

With GM’s vehicle inventory at 104 days’ supply, well above a year-end target of about 70 days, executives have said they plan to build 150,000 fewer vehicles in North America in the second half of the year compared with the first six months.

While part of GM’s planned factory downtime relates to plants being retooled for updated models, including all-important full-size pickups, the company also has cut shifts at four passenger-car assembly plants, and a fifth is scheduled to be dropped in September.

Ford plans to reduce North American production in the third quarter by 34,000 vehicles compared with a year earlier. The company last week cited the need to match output with demand and a Kentucky truck plant gearing up to make new Expedition and Lincoln Navigator sport utility vehicles.

Shares of most major automakers have trailed benchmark U.S. stock indexes this year. The exceptions have been Fiat Chrysler, which is poised to benefit from the shift in consumer tastes away from cars toward pickups and sport utility vehicles, and Tesla Inc., which has soared in anticipation of the more affordable Model 3 sedan.

GM shares dropped 3.4 percent last Tuesday, the biggest drop since February, while Ford fell 2.4 percent, the most in almost three months.

Automakers are poised to struggle measuring up to strong second-half results from a year ago as both regular consumers and rental companies have been cutting back on car purchases. Deliveries plunged about 40 percent for both the Chevrolet Impala and Ford Fusion last month.

Trump Setback

Those sorts of numbers are a setback for Trump, who told automakers in March he’d cut them a break on environmental standards and wanted more hiring in return.

“The idea was that some kind of deregulation would make it more attractive to build cars here and that implementing a tariff would create investment, that won’t be relevant at this point,” said Lewis Alexander, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York.

The traditional Detroit automakers are also competing with Japanese and luxury brands offering more SUV models -- and selling them at larger volumes -- than ever before.

“That market share now is being spread amongst a greater competitive set, and the D3 are suffering as a result of that,” said Peter Nagle, senior automotive economist with IHS Markit.

Still, North American factories have honed their focus on pickups and SUVs, so shifting consumer preferences toward bigger autos should be good for U.S. economy, Nagle added.

“We do have a particular expertise in building these vehicles,” he said.