美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)沒有提高利率,但“即將”采取另一重大舉措
上周三,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布維持利率不變,并表示“即將”開始逐步縮減其持有的大量債券,作為對(duì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)充滿信心的一種表現(xiàn)。 美國中央銀行將貸款基準(zhǔn)利率維持在1%至1.25%的目標(biāo)區(qū)間內(nèi),并表示將繼續(xù)實(shí)施緩慢的貨幣緊縮政策。這一政策自2015年實(shí)施以來,提高了一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的利率。 在為期兩天的會(huì)議之后,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的利率制定委員會(huì)在聲明中稱,目前美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)適度,就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)也很穩(wěn)定。但該委員會(huì)指出,全面通脹率和衡量潛在價(jià)格漲幅的指標(biāo)均有所下降。委員會(huì)還表示會(huì)對(duì)價(jià)格趨勢(shì)“密切監(jiān)控”。 美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)稱:“委員會(huì)即將啟動(dòng)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表正常化程序。”并補(bǔ)充表示,將按照6月制定的一份方案來實(shí)施該計(jì)劃。 為應(yīng)對(duì)2007-2009年的金融危機(jī)和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將利率降低至幾乎為零。之后在債券購買狂潮中,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)向經(jīng)濟(jì)注入了3萬億美元,以進(jìn)一步降低利率。 但目前,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表已增至4.5萬億美元。 清理資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表標(biāo)志著這一備受爭(zhēng)議的工具將告終結(jié)。這一工具曾受到國會(huì)共和黨議員的批評(píng)。盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)研究人員得出的結(jié)論是,購買債券只會(huì)小幅提振經(jīng)濟(jì),但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席珍妮特·耶倫曾說過,如果經(jīng)濟(jì)再出現(xiàn)深度衰退,美國央行可能會(huì)再次實(shí)施資產(chǎn)購買計(jì)劃。 穩(wěn)定的新增就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)使美國的失業(yè)率降到了4.3%,這是近16年來的最低點(diǎn)。然而,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的決策者表示,勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的快速發(fā)展最終可能會(huì)推高通脹率。 美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)此前曾暗示,將于今年開始削減其持有的美國國債和政府支持的抵押貸款債券。路透社的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)這一消息將于9月份正式公布。 與此同時(shí),今年通貨膨脹的放緩引起了一些美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員的不安,他們擔(dān)心通貨膨脹率已經(jīng)低于美國央行設(shè)定的2%了,而2%是美國央行設(shè)定的五年目標(biāo)。 今年5月,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)潛在通脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估的首選指標(biāo)下降到1.4%。而在2月,這一數(shù)字為1.8%。 美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的決策者一致通過了周三的這一決定。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)) 譯者:Amelia Huang |
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and said it expected to start winding down its massive holdings of bonds "relatively soon" in a sign of confidence in the U.S. economy. The U.S. central bank kept its benchmark lending rate in a target range of 1% to 1.25% and said it was continuing the slow path of monetary tightening that has lifted rates by a percentage point since 2015. In a statement following a two-day policy meeting, the Fed's rate-setting committee indicated the economy was growing moderately and job gains had been solid. But it noted that both overall inflation and a measure of underlying price gains had declined and said it would "carefully monitor" price trends. "The committee expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon," the Fed said, adding that it would follow a plan outlined in June. After pushing rates nearly to zero to fight the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession, the Fed pumped over $3 trillion into the economy in a bond-buying spree to further reduce rates. Its balance sheet has grown to $4.5 trillion. Unwinding the balance sheet will mark the end of a controversial tool that drew criticism from Republican lawmakers in Congress. While Fed researchers have concluded the bond buying only modestly boosted the economy, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said the central bank could use asset purchases again if the economy fell into a deep rut. Steady job creation in the economy has pushed the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.3%, near a 16-year low. Fed policymakers, however, have said labor market strength could eventually push inflation too high. The Fed had previously signaled it would begin this year to trim its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and government-backed mortgage debt. Economists polled by Reuters expect that announcement will come in September. At the same time, a slowdown in inflation this year has caused jitters among some Fed officials who are already concerned that inflation has been below the central bank's 2% target for five years. The Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation dropped to 1.4% in May. It was 1.8% in February. No Fed policymakers dissented in Wednesday's decision. |