本月中，《財富》邀請了頂尖的加密貨幣企業家、風投資本家、銀行家等人來到科羅拉多州阿斯彭的財富頭腦風暴科技大會，探討數字貨幣的未來。 周三早晨，一部分專家在阿斯彭研究所舉行了早餐圓桌討論會。

討論小組的成員包括在募集傳統風投基金上遙遙領先的加密貨幣初創公司21.co的首席執行官和創始人巴拉吉·斯里尼瓦桑；還有位于英國，近來從谷歌母公司Alphabet的風險投資部門GV處募得4,000萬美元的加密貨幣錢包公司Blockchain的首席執行官和創始人彼得·史密斯；以及在今年通過區塊鏈上市募集超過2億美元，由著名投資者蒂姆·德瑞普等人支持的區塊鏈初創公司Tezos的首席執行官和共同創始人凱思琳·布雷特曼。

專家團隊探討了各種各樣的話題，包括原始的加密貨幣比特幣的壽命，由密碼保護的公共分類賬簿區塊鏈，利用所謂的代幣銷售募集項目資金【尤其是在比特幣的競爭對手區塊鏈以太坊上】的最新潮流，分散化網絡的未來等。以下是我們聽聞的一些預測。

1. 比特幣和以太坊會延續下去

對加密貨幣持樂觀態度的大部分人都同意比特幣和新的對手以太坊會長期保持影響力，盡管他們在更看好誰上存在分歧。巴拉吉·斯里尼瓦桑對房間里的70多個人表示：“在未來5到10年內，我打賭比特幣和以太坊將活躍在我們周圍。”

彼得·史密斯表示，他的公司Blockchain很早就看好比特幣，但直到最近才開始對新生的以太坊感興趣。私人金融公司SoFi的首席執行官和共同創始人麥克·卡格尼則相反，他在另一個會議的主舞臺上表示自己更看好以太坊。

卡格尼表示，比特幣“有一些用途，不過它在商業交易上的應用目前受到了限制。另一方面，區塊鏈和以太坊已經有了很棒的基礎應用。”他進一步提到了徹底革新產權保險的可能性，其中涉及房地產相關政策等。

2. 目前默默無聞的貨幣會在未來取得巨大成功

比特幣和以太坊可能現在大出風頭，但是創新并不會終止于此。還會有更多贏家涌現出來。

凱思琳·布雷特曼希望她在區塊鏈上的投資Tezos將會填補空白，解決現有區塊鏈上存在的問題。尤其是她和項目開發者正在設計讓Tezos自動聯網更新軟件，如此一來，理論上就可以避免升級中導致的沖突問題。過去幾年里，它一直困擾著比特幣等系統。

沒有人可以確定有多少代幣、貨幣和區塊鏈協議將會最終勝出，不過專家們似乎認為它們有共存的空間。史密斯預計：“可能還會有一兩種我們目前還沒發現的統治性貨幣出現在市場上。某種具備真正統治力的貨幣可能會在今年或明年脫穎而出。”

3. 當然，人們會受到打擊

暫時來看，代幣銷售似乎是迅速募集大量資金，同時幾乎不會引發問題的完美途徑。這會是一些人的致富捷徑嗎？毫無疑問，實際上，已經有人借機致富。而對其他人來說這是否像是盜竊？答案幾乎是肯定的。

史密斯表示，他認為市場操縱和內幕交易在區塊鏈上市的承辦者之間十分猖獗。他在談到自己的公司時表示：“我們在短期內對此保持謹慎。不過你得淡定一些，因為每項新技術在最開始時都會有這種情況。”

Ripple的首席執行官、前雅虎高管布拉德·加林豪斯在另外一個研討會上，對于行業的這種情況所表現的關注就沒那么寬容了。他說：“監管嚴格的市場往往都有監管嚴格的理由。欺詐在不斷發生，人們會去蹲監獄。”

4. 區塊鏈上市（最終）會成為硅谷和華爾街的投資選擇

前去富豪家里游說的日子已經過去了。在這個世界上，任何人都能在網上成為投資者，物理位置已經不再重要了。

斯里尼瓦桑談到尋求資金的企業家時表示：“過去你必須來到硅谷，走過沙山路，與每個人拉關系。”他們往往游蕩在風投公司聚集的帕洛阿爾托西部。區塊鏈上市改變了這一情況。

在這種類似Kickstarter的新方式下，項目已經可以得到贊助。布雷特曼表示，當她建立Tezos代幣銷售時，就希望“讓盡可能多的人參與到這個生態系統的建設中來”。公司目前已經募集了超過2億美元資金，據她所說，已經有超過3萬個Tezos錢包賬戶開通。

5. 監管會緊隨其后

巴克萊銀行安全部門的首席信息官埃琳娜·沃切克表示，她們銀行已經與監管者就比特幣、區塊鏈和類似事物有過談話。只要“了解你的客戶”定律不被打破，監管者似乎對此持開放態度，盡管目前時日尚早。

斯里尼瓦桑表示，與此同時，隨著政府開始推出一系列規定，瑞士、新加坡和愛沙尼亞等國正在爭相建立與這項技術相適應的框架。他們試圖取代地理上的現有樞紐，成為新一波企業融資浪潮的中樞。史密斯表示：“如果你是美國人或者位于美國企業，就需要對此好好關注了。”

布雷特曼補充道，在協議商定之前，人們對于在做的事情“最好保持透明”。

6. 隨著“殺手級應用”出現，投機行為將會慢慢減少

由于加密貨幣的價格波動劇烈，投機者正在大顯身手。然而，史密斯表示，我們有理由相信市場會變得更加穩定，而比特幣過去幾年正逐漸呈現出這樣的趨勢（盡管其價格仍然有較大波動）。

這些計算機貨幣若要成功流行起來，就需要一個能打敗傳統貨幣的使用場合。《財富》記者和會議主持人杰夫·約翰·羅伯茨指出，理想情況下，這種場合應該要比“購買毒品”更好一些。

斯里尼瓦桑提出了一個可能的設想。想象一下，“你所有醒著的時間都花在《黑客帝國》中”，也就是所有人在未來陷入的虛擬現實里。由于世界各地的人們會見面、互動，他們需要一種交易媒介。他說：“交易的時候，你不能拿出一張美元鈔票。你需要一種國際貨幣。”

他說：“這可能需要一些時間，不過未來跨國交易的需求肯定會比現在更大。”

7. 加密貨幣會給現有公司施加壓力，促使他們進步

每當消費者刷卡時，刷卡服務提供商都會收取費用。

Linux基金會的首席技術官尼科·范·索梅倫指出，Visa或萬事達卡等公司收取的費用超過了他們完成或處理交易的成本。他聲稱，這些機構實際上可以用更低的費用更快地處理交易。

采用比特幣這樣的可選系統可能導致的結果之一，是推動現有公司改善他們的服務。范·索梅倫表示：“比特幣很棒，因為它會讓銀行的收費更接近處理這些交易的真實成本。”【進一步來說，我們也可以設想：建立在以太坊基礎上的新興勢力可能會迫使亞馬遜、Facebook或Dropbox重新考慮或改善他們對應的產品。】

與此同時，史密斯對于現有公司是否有能力適應這樣的改變不太樂觀。他說：“我不認為銀行有太多空間來調整他們的定價模式。”（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

Fortune convened some top cryptocurrency entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, bankers, and others to chat about the future of digital money at Fortune’s Brainstorm Tech conference in Aspen, Colo. last week. A select group met at the Aspen Institute for a breakfast roundtable discussion on Wednesday morning.

Headliners on the panel included Balaji Srinivasan, CEO and cofounder of 21.co, a cryptocurrency startup that has raised more in traditional VC funding than almost other one. Another was Peter Smith, CEO and cofounder of Blockchain, a U.K.-based cryptocurrency wallet company that recently raised $40 million from GV, the venture capital arm of Alphabet, parent company of Google. And Kathleen Breitman, CEO and cofounder of Tezos, a blockchain startup that this year raised more than $200 million in an initial coin offering, or ICO, and which counts celeb investor Tim Draper among its backers.

The crew of experts weighed in on everything from the longevity of Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency and blockchain, or cryptographically secured public ledger, to the latest trend of hosting so-called token sales to fund projects, especially on Ethereum, a rival blockchain to Bitcoin’s, to the future of a decentralized web. Here are some of the predictions we heard.

1. Bitcoin and Ethereum are here to stay.

Most people who are enthusiastic about cryptocurrency appear to agree that Bitcoin and its newer rival Ethereum have staying power, though they may be more bullish on one versus the other. "In terms of 5 to 10 years, Bitcoin and Ether will be around I bet," Balaji Srinivasan told the room of more than 70 people.

Peter Smith said his company, Blockchain, which was early to Bitcoin, has only just started to warm up to newcomer Ethereum. In contrast, Mike Cagney, CEO and cofounder of SoFi, a personal finance company, said during a separate session on the main stage that he was hotter on the latter technology.

Bitcoin "has some purpose but its application for commercial transaction is limited right now," Cagney said. "The blockchain and Ethereum, on the other hand, have absolutely fascinating infrastructure applications,” he continued, mentioning the possibility to overhaul title insurance, which involves policies related to real estate, as one example.

2. As yet unknown coins will hit the big time.

Bitcoin and Ethereum may have stolen the show at this point, but the innovation won’t end there. Expect more winners on the horizon.

Kathleen Breitman is hopeful that Tezos, her own blockchain bet, will fill a niche that solves problems with extant blockchains. In particular, she and her project’s developers are designing Tezos to automatically push software updates out to the network, thus, in theory, avoiding the divisive feuding over upgrades that has wracked systems like Bitcoin over the past few years.

No one can say how many tokens and coins and blockchain protocols will eventually win out, but the experts seem to think there’s room for a multitude. "It’s likely that another one or two dominant ones we haven’t seen yet in the market," Smith projected. "Another really dominant coin could come out this year or next year.”

3. Sure, people will get burned.

For the time being, token sales might seem like a fantastic way to raise a lot of money quickly and with few questions asked. Will this lead to riches for some? Undoubtedly—indeed, it already has. And rip-offs for others? Almost certainly.

Smith said he presumes that market manipulation and insider dealing is rampant among purveyors of initial coin offerings. “We’re cautious about it in the short term,” Smith said of his company. “But you have to temper that with the idea that every new technology is going to be like that in the beginning.”

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple and a former executive at Yahoo, voiced his less forgiving concerns about the sector on a separate panel. “Heavily regulated markets are typically heavily regulated for a reason,” he said. “Frauds are happening, people are going to jail.”

4. ICOs will (eventually) give Silicon Valley and Wall Street a run for their money.

The days of making a pilgrimage to the homes of the holders of purse strings are coming to an end. In a world where anyone can participate as an investor online, physical location matters much less.

“It used to be you had to come to Silicon Valley, walk up Sand Hill Road, network with individuals,” Srinivasan said about entrepreneurs seeking funding, often strolling up a strip to the west of Palo Alto that long has been associated with venture capital firms. ICOs change all that.

Projects are already getting funded this Kickstarter-like new way. Breitman said she that when she set up Tezos’ token sale, she aimed to “get as many people who wanted to participate in the ecosystem to contribute.” The company raised more than $200 million to date and, according to her, more than 30,000 Tezos wallets have been opened.

5. Regulations will stick.

Elena Kvochko, chief information officer of the security division at Barclays, said that her bank has had talks with regulators about Bitcoin, blockchains, and their ilk. The rule-sticklers appear to be open to the idea as long as “know your customer” laws are obeyed, although its still early days.

Meanwhile, as governments settle on sets of rules of the road, countries like Switzerland, Singapore, and Estonia are jostling to develop frameworks that easily accommodate the new technology, Srinivasan said. They’re seeking to displace geographic incumbents and become hubs for a new wave of business financing. “If you’re a U.S. person or business, you have a good deal to be concerned about,” Smith said.

Breitman added that until the rules are agreed upon, it’s “best to be transparent” about what one is doing.

6. Speculation will subside as “killer apps” take hold.

As cryptocurrency prices fluctuate wildly, speculators have been having a field day. However, there’s reason to believe the markets will become more stable, as Bitcoin gradually has over the past couple of years (despite its still big price swings), Smith said.

In order for these computer coins to catch on big-time, they need a use-case that beats traditional money. Ideally, this ought to be better than merely “buying drugs,” as Jeff John Roberts, Fortune reporter and the session’s moderator, noted.

Srinivasan proposed one possible scenario. Imagine that “all your waking hours are spent in the Matrix,” he said, referring to a virtual reality in which everyone is enmeshed in the future. As people from all over the world meet and interact, they will need a medium of exchange. “To transact, you can’t just hand over a dollar bill,” Srinivasan said. “You need an international currency for that.”

“It might take a while but there’s going to be more of a need to transact across borders than there is today,” he said.

7. Cryptocurrencies will pressure incumbents to improve.

Whenever a consumer swipes or dips a credit card, payment processors charge a fee.

Nicko van Someren, chief technology officer of the Linux Foundation, pointed out that the fee companies like Visa or Mastercard charge exceeds the cost to clear or settle transactions. These businesses can potentially process transactions quicker and cheaper, he contended.

One potential outcome of the adoption of alternate systems, like Bitcoin, is to provide companies with the impetus to improve their services. “Bitcoin is good because it will make banks move toward the real cost of handling these transactions,” van Someren said. (By extension, in Ethereum's case, one could imagine upstart companies built on it forcing giants like Amazon, Facebook, or Dropbox to reconsider or improve their respective offerings.)

Smith, meanwhile, was less optimistic about incumbents’ ability to adapt to such change. “I don’t think be lot of room for banks to simply adjust their price models,” he said.