Snapchat的新地圖功能讓用戶更容易找到好友，這家公司卻很難在華爾街找到以前那些友善的面孔。

上周二盤中，Snapchat母公司Snap的股價重挫近9%，滑落至15.50美元，原因是投行巨擘摩根史丹利將這家閱后即焚照片共享服務商的評級下調至“持有”。這讓今年3月份買了Snap首發新股的投資者出現了更大的損失。本周一該公司股價首次跌破17美元的發行價，投資者隨即陷入虧損境地。

被摩根士丹利下調評級對Snap的打擊特別大，原因是作為該公司的IPO主承銷商，摩根士丹利曾帶著它走了整套程序，并且幫它確定了首發價。通常，這樣的承銷商都會在公司上市后成為它的“拉拉隊長”，拋出評級為“買入”或“持有”的薦股報告。摩根士丹利也不例外。

Snap上市后，摩根士丹利對前者的評級相當于“買入”，并將12個月目標價定為28美元，這是當時華爾街最樂觀的目標價之一。

現在，摩根士丹利卻將Snap的目標價下調43%，降至16美元/股，已經低于后者的首發價（周二下午，Snap的股價已經跌至摩根士丹利設定的目標價下方）。

那么，摩根士丹利為什么“變心”呢？該機構的報告顯示，以布萊恩·諾瓦克為首的分析師們現在已經不那么相信Snap的增長能力了。實際上，他們完全否定了最堅定擁護者對Snap抱有信心的主要原因，也就是明顯的稀缺性和獨特的平臺。

諾瓦克寫道：“我們一直錯誤判斷了Snap的創新能力及其在今年改善廣告產品的能力（提高可擴展性、方向性和可衡量性等）。它的廣告產品進化/改善的速度沒有達到我們的預期，而且Instagram帶來的競爭不斷加大。”

最近，Snap的投資者越發擔心Facebook旗下的Instagram。6月底，Facebook在公告中披露了Instagram Stories，也就是和Snap正面對抗的業務每天的活躍用戶數量已經達到2.50億，比5月份 Snap公布的1.66億日均活躍用戶多50%。

諾瓦克指出：“我們認為Instagram在和Snap爭奪廣告收入方面已經變得更有侵略性。”

因此，摩根士丹利預計今年Snap的收入為8.97億美元，遠低于此前預測的10億美元。同時，摩根士丹利還預測Snap到今年底的活躍用戶數量只能達到1.82億。

就在摩根士丹利發布上述報告的前一天，Snap的另一家IPO承銷商瑞信銀行也將其目標價從30美元下調至25美元。瑞信表示，本月晚些時候持股鎖定期結束后，Snap的股價可能下跌。屆時許多Snap IPO的支持者以及內部人士就都可以拋售該公司的股票。

不過，Snap仍有機會憑借更好的業績打動投資者。該公司正在秘密進行的項目有可能讓它釋放增長潛力。就像一位用戶在推特上寫的段子一樣：

想象一下，當投資者問CEO他打算怎樣止住Snap的暴跌勢頭時，后者用powerpoint展示了這么一張圖（一只帶著耳機的熱狗，旁邊的文字是Snapchat 2017年公司策略）

- jack wagner (@jackdwagner) July 10, 2017?

這只熱狗實際上是最近在Snapchat上大熱的增強現實虛擬形象。它有時招首弄姿，有時跳舞，現在則成了官方自拍照。

除非這只熱狗能為Snap賣廣告。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

Snapchat has made it easier for users to find friends through its new maps feature, but the company itself is having trouble finding formerly friendly faces on Wall Street.

In trading Tuesday, Snap's stock price plunged nearly 9% to as low as $15.50 after banking giant Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of the disappearing photo app company to the equivalent of "hold." That deepened losses for investors who bought into Snap's initial public offering back in March. Those investors had already lost money on their investment as of Monday when Snap's stock dipped below its $17 IPO price for the first time ever.

Morgan Stanley's downgrade is a particularly hard hit for the company as the bank was the lead underwriter for Snap's IPO, guiding the company through the process and helping determine its initial stock price. Typically, such underwriters become cheerleaders of the company after it officially goes public, authoring "buy" or "hold" recommendations. And Morgan Stanley was no exception.

Following Snap's IPO, Morgan Stanley gave Snap the equivalent of a "buy" rating and a 12-month target price of $28—one of the most bullish on Wall Street at the time.

But now, the bank has lowered its price target by 43% to $16 a share. That's well below Snap's IPO price. (By Tuesday afternoon, Snap stock had already fallen below Morgan Stanley's target.)

So why the change of heart? According to the note, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Brian Nowak are now less convinced of Snap's ability to grow. In fact, the analysts effectively refuted the main reasons why Snap's biggest champions believed in the company at all: its apparent scalability and unique platform.

"We have been wrong about Snap's ability to innovate and improve its ad product this year (improving scalability, targeting, measurability, etc.) and user monetization," Nowak wrote. "Snap's ad product is not evolving/improving as quickly as we expected and Instagram competition is increasing."

Recently, Snap investors have grown increasingly wary of Facebook-owned Instagram. In late June, Facebook announced that its Instagram Stories feature, which competes with Snapchat, had reached 250 million daily active users—50% higher than the 166 million daily active user base Snap reported in May.

"We believe Instagram has become more aggressive in competing for Snap's ad dollars," Nowak wrote.

As a result, Morgan Stanley expects Snap to reach revenue of $897 million this year—far lower than the $1 billion it once expected. Moreover, Morgan Stanley expects the company to reach just 182 million active users by the end of this year.

The Morgan Stanley note also comes just a day after another of Snap's IPO underwriters, Credit Suisse, lowered its target price on the company from $30 to $25, saying that Snap's stock price could fall later this month when Snap's lockup period begin to expire. That will allow many of Snap's IPO backers and insiders to start selling their shares in the company.

Still, Snap has a chance to wow investors with stronger earnings figures. It's possible the company is working behind closed doors on a project that could potentially unlock growth. As one user joked on Twitter:

imagine the Snapchat investors asking the CEO what he's got planned to stop the stock from plummeting & he pulls up this mf on a powerpoint pic.twitter.com/d6qenVQUtA

- jack wagner (@jackdwagner) July 10, 2017

?That hot dog is in fact an augmented reality feature that recently hit Snapchat. It bobs, it dances, and it's now an official meme.

Now if only the hot dog could sell ads for Snap.