螞蟻金服準備上市,不再在乎華爾街
從中國互聯網剛剛起步開始,中國科技創業者最大的牢騷之一就一直是西方投資者不理解他們。搜狐創始人張朝陽是中國的科技先鋒之一。2006年接受我采訪時,他曾就此做了一次經典吐槽。這篇報道也成了《財富》雜志最早描寫中國國家防火墻之內情形的文章之一。當時張朝陽忿忿地說:“我被迫與之打交道的一群投資者都不住在中國,不會說中文,甚至都沒看過我的網站。他們想談的只是下個季度的財務報表,或者怎么復制一些美國的經營模式?!?/p> 11年后,這仍是中國科技創業者普遍哀嘆的問題,而他們或許是有道理的。大家可以回想一下上周四阿里巴巴公布季報后華爾街的反應。這家中國電子商務巨擘披露,在截止3月31日的季度中實現凈利潤15.5億美元,接近上年同期凈利潤的兩倍。這是好消息,對吧?嗯,國際投資者并不以為然。當天上午阿里巴巴的股價下挫了5%以上。為什么呢?這顯然是因為阿里巴巴0.64美元的每股收益沒有達到分析師的預期,差了0.01美元。 后來,阿里巴巴的股價出現反彈,原因是人們意識到凈利潤略低于預測值也許沒什么關系。該公司正在投資的數據存儲和娛樂等其他領域預計將推動今后的增長。同時,讓市場感到欣慰的是阿里巴巴的季度收入達到了56億美元,同比增長60% ?。ò⒗锇桶瓦@個季度“令人失望”的凈利潤是亞馬遜同期業績的兩倍,其收入增速差不多是亞馬遜的三倍。) 今年1月以來,阿里巴巴的股價幾乎上漲了40%,目前在123美元左右,從而讓馬云奪回了中國首富寶座。大家則可以看出為什么馬云以及阿里巴巴的其他創始人也許會同情羅德尼?丹杰菲爾德。 長期以來,阿里巴巴和國際投資者的關系一直是愛恨交織,以前股價下跌只是雙方又一次鬧別扭。馬云不屑于股東最了解情況的英美觀點已經不是什么秘密。他最著名的一句話出現在2009年:“如果愿意,就讓華爾街投資者詛咒我們吧。”2014年,馬云和阿里巴巴另一位創始人蔡崇信放棄了在香港上市的計劃,原因是香港監管部門態度猶豫,未能修改法規以便阿里巴巴的創始人保持在董事會的多數席位。 相反,馬云和蔡崇信選擇在紐約證交所上市,后者樂于為他們的IPO申請獻上祝福。2014年9月,阿里巴巴登陸紐交所,融資250億美元,迄今為止仍是世界上規模最大的IPO。但蜜月期很短暫。阿里巴巴上市當天的開盤價為68美元,當年11月升至120美元的高點,隨后一年則持續滑坡,原因是外界擔心中國政府可能打擊阿里巴巴上販賣假冒產品的行為以及中國經濟增速放慢。2015年9月,《巴倫周刊》的封面文章指責阿里巴巴在賬目上動手腳,批評其管理層只會大肆收購,而且預計當時約64美元的阿里巴巴股價將再下跌50%。一貫唱衰中國的吉姆?查諾斯隨后落井下石,稱阿里巴巴的賬目“是我見過的最可疑的賬目之一”。 那么當螞蟻金服,也就是馬云的在線金融服務旗艦準備上市時,他并不急于再次尋求華爾街的幫助也就不會讓人感到意外了。這次,馬云決定在A股上市,這里關于透明度的規定遠沒有美國股市那么繁瑣,投資者的要求也要低得多。 螞蟻金服首發上市一直是全球最受期待的IPO之一。這家公司提供的技術讓消費者得以在阿里巴巴的電商網站上購物,它還經營著余額寶,后者已成為全球最大的資金市場基金。螞蟻金服還擁有在線銀行——網商銀行。2016年4月完成新一輪融資后,螞蟻金服的價值達到600億美元,是Snap的兩倍。外界普遍預計螞蟻金服將在今年晚些時候上市。 對了,中國資本市場還有其他要權衡的問題。《金融時報》本周報道,螞蟻金服的A股IPO至少已經推遲到了明年底。報道稱,這次IPO仍在等待監管部門做出關鍵決斷,但沒人想在中國共產黨下一代領導人浮出水面的年份承擔責任。中國股市和信貸市場持續下挫也不是什么好消息。 目前在螞蟻金服融資的問題上,馬云已將硅谷風投機構和華爾街雙雙拒之門外,而是選擇了中國國有金融機構,其中包括規模巨大的中國主權財富基金——中投公司。螞蟻金服的IPO可能還要再等一陣子。但有如此體量的國內支持者撐腰,馬云等得起,也經得起華爾街投資者隨心所欲的大聲詛咒。(財富中文網) 譯者:Charlie |
From the first days of China's Internet, one of the biggest gripes of China's tech entrepreneurs has been that Western investors just don't understand them. Sohu.com founder Charles Zhang, one of China's tech pioneers, launched into an epic rant on that subject when I interviewed him in 2006 for one of Fortune's earliest stories about life behind "The Great Firewall of China." "I have to deal with a bunch of investors who don't live in China, can't speak the language, and don't even look at my site," Zhang fumed. "All they want to talk about is the next quarterly earnings statement or how to replicate some business model from the U.S." Eleven years on, that remains a common lament among China's tech founders. And maybe they have a point. Consider Wall Street's reaction last Thursday to quarterly financial results announced by Alibaba (NYSE:BABA). The Chinese e-commerce giant reported that, in the three months ending in March 31, it raked in $1.55 billion in net income—nearly double net income in the same quarter last year. Good news, right? Well, global investors weren't impressed. Alibaba's shares tanked more than 5% in morning trading. Why? Apparently because the company's 64 cent earnings-per-share ratio missed analysts' expectations. By a penny. BABA's share price recovered later in the day as it dawned on folks that maybe it didn't matter if net income lagged a little. The company is investing in data storage, entertainment and other areas expected drive future growth. Markets also were mollified by the fact that revenue for the quarter shot to $5.6 billion, up 60% (!) year-on-year. (Alibaba's "disappointing" net income for the January to March quarter was double that of Amazon for the same period, and the Chinese company's revenue grew nearly three times faster than Amazon's.) Since January, Alibaba's share price is up almost 40%, and now trades at about $123, restoring Jack Ma to his position as China's richest man. But you can see why maybe Jack and his co-founders might sympathize with Rodney Dangerfield. Last Thursday's morning sell-off was only the latest tiff in Alibaba's long-running love-hate relationship with global investors. Jack has made no secret of his disdain for the Anglo-American idea that shareholders know best, most famously in 2009 when he declared: “Let the Wall Street investors curse us if they wish." In 2014, he and co-founder Joseph Tsai aborted plans to list on Hong Kong's stock exchange because regulators balked at changing Hong Kong's rules to allow Alibaba's founders to retain control a majority of the seats on the board. Instead Jack and Joe took Alibaba's IPO to the New York Stock Exchange, which was happy to bless their proposal. Alibaba's September 2014 on the NYSE earned $25 billion, and remains the world's biggest IPO. But the honeymoon was brief. BABA's share price debuted at $68, surged to a high of $120 in November, then tumbled into a year-long slump, weighed down by concerns Beijing would crack down on Alibaba for trafficking counterfeit merchandise and the faltering growth of China's economy. A September 2015 cover story in Barron's assailed Alibaba for cooking its books, faulted management for embarking on a reckless acquisitions spree, and predicted Alibaba's stock, then trading at about $64, could fall another 50%. China bear Jim Chanos piled on, attacking Alibaba's accounting as "some of the most questionable I've ever seen." No surprise, then, that when it came time to float shares of Ant Financial Services Group, his online financial services powerhouse, Jack didn't rush back to Wall Street. This time, he opted to list on China's domestic stock markets, where transparency requirements are far less onerous and investors far less demanding. Ant's IPO has been among the world's most anticipated listing deals. The company provides the technology that enables customers on Alibaba's e-commerce sites to make purchases, and operates Yu'e Bao, a money-market fund that has become the world's largest. It also runs an online bank, MYbank. In its last financing round in April 2016, Ant was valued at $60 billion, double the value of Snap. The IPO was widely expected to happen later this year. Alas, China's capital markets have other trade-offs. A report this week the Financial Times says Ant's China IPO has been postponed until the end of next year at least. The FT says Ant's IPO is stuck pending crucial regulatory decisions, which no one wants to take responsibility for in a year when China's ruling Communist Party is choosing its next generation of leaders. Continued turmoil in China's stock and credit markets doesn't help. For now, to fund Ant, Jack has snubbed both Sand Hill Road and Wall Street in favor of state-controlled financial institutions from China, among them China's giant sovereign wealth fund, China Investments Corp. Ant may have to wait a while longer for an IPO. But with homegrown backers that big, Jack can afford to wait--and to let Wall Street investors curse as loudly as they like. |