投資巨頭沃倫·巴菲特有充足的理由為沒有在亞馬遜（Amazon）上市時購買其股票而后悔，而大部分投資者也是如此。

假如一個叫喬的普通人決定省下5,000美元，在20年前亞馬遜首次公開募股時購買他們的股票，那這些股票的價值現在至少已經達到240萬美元。

盡管這些回報會讓喬非常高興，不過在巴菲特720億美元的凈資產里，240萬美元幾乎不算什么。此外，他經常在自己認為值得的公司里投入比這更多的資金。舉個例子，1990年他第一次投資富國銀行（Wells Fargo）時，投資額就有290萬美元。

所以可以想象一下，假如這位奧馬哈的先知在早期帶頭投資亞馬遜，能獲得怎樣的回報。在1997年5月15日那個周四，亞馬遜在納斯達克（Nasdaq）上市，巴菲特決定斥資5,000萬美元投資。現在，該公司的股價已經是原來的大約488倍，所以這些股票的價值將達到244億美元。

在這個平行世界里，巴菲特對亞馬遜的持股（假設這是私人投資）會幫助他的凈資產達到大約960億美元，超越現在的比爾·蓋茨、亞馬遜的首席執行官杰夫·貝佐斯和西班牙商人阿曼西奧·奧爾特加·高納，成為世界首富。目前比爾·蓋茨的凈資產大約為870億美元。

當然，現實情況下，巴菲特或其他投資者很難在亞馬遜上市時買到5,000萬美元的股票。當時亞馬遜的估值大約是4.4億美元，希望通過首次公開募股籌得大約5,400萬美元。

與此同時，亞馬遜過去20年的股價走勢，對任何投資者而言都是折磨，即便是巴菲特這樣的長線投資者也不例外。亞馬遜上市兩年后，互聯網泡沫下的吹捧和狂熱，讓公司的估值上漲8,162%，達到364億美元。

而到2001年底，泡沫破碎了。Pets.com等一系列互聯網公司倒閉，這讓認為投資者過于迫切地尋找快速增長的公司的輿論愈演愈烈。當時剛剛開始盈利的亞馬遜，也沒有在投資者過敏不安的舉動下幸免。當年，公司市值萎縮到了22億美元，貝佐斯說“持有我們的股票可能會讓你睡不好覺”。亞馬遜又花了六年時間，才讓公司的市值達到泡沫破碎之前的高度。

盡管巴菲特反復表示沒有投資亞馬遜是一個錯誤，但他也沒有現在購買股票的意思。而且現在投資亞馬遜也不是一個簡單的決定。亞馬遜增長很快，規模很大——他們還能以這樣的速度發展多久是個問題。如今公司的市值為4,579億美元，2016年收入為1,360億美元，比大約20年前的170億美元收入增長了7倍。

根據華爾街的預計，即使亞馬遜增速放緩，他們也依舊是最有可能成為全球第一家市值達到1萬億美元的公司之一。（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

Investment titan Warren Buffett has good reason to regret not buying Amazon when it first went public — as do most investors.

Had the average Joe decided to save $5,000 and spend it on Amazon's stock when it first hit the public markets 20 years ago, they be worth at least $2.4 million today.

While those returns would have made the average Joe quite happy, $2.4 million would've hardly been noticeable in Buffett's now $72 billion net worth. Moreover, the investor has typically made much larger investments in companies he considers worthy. When Buffett first invested in Wells Fargo in 1990 for instance, Buffett decided to put $290 million into the banking giant.

So imagine an alternate reality in which the Oracle of Omaha decided to take the leap and invest in Amazon in its early days. In that world, Buffett decided to put say $50 million in company on Thursday, May 15, 1997 — the day Amazon it debuted on the Nasdaq. Today, that same stake would be worth $24.4 billion as the company's shares have grown some 488 times.

The value of Buffett's alternative universe stake in Amazon (assuming he personally invested in it) would have helped him beat out Bill Gates, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, and Spanish businessman Amancio Ortega Gaona today, to become the world's wealthiest man with some $96 billion to his name. Gates is currently worth some $87 billion.

In reality of course, it would have been quite difficult for Buffett, or any investor for that matter, to buy about $50 million of Amazon's stock on the day of its IPO. The company's IPO sought to raise only about $54 million for a market value of about $440 million at the time.

Meanwhile, Amazon's stock performance over those 20 years would have been trying for any investor — even one who thinks as long term as Buffett. For two years following Amazon's public debut, the euphoria and hype that defined the dot-com bubble helped heat Amazon's valuation up 8,162% to $36.4 billion.

By late 2001, though, the rose-colored glasses were off. A series of dot-com companies, including Pets,com had closed their doors, fanning concerns that investors had been too eager in their search for a fast growing company. Amazon, which had yet to turn a profit at the time, was no exception to the jitters. The company's market cap shrank to some $2.2 billion in 2001, while Bezos remarked at the time that "we are not a stock you can sleep well with at night." It would be another six years before Amazon's market cap recovered to its pre-crash high.

While Buffett has repeatedly said not investing in Amazon was a mistake, he has yet to show signs of wanting to buy the stock now. And buying Amazon now isn't an easy decision to make. Amazon has grown fast and large—raising questions about how long the company can continue at its current rate. Now the company worth $457.9 billion in market cap, with revenue of $136 billion in 2016. That's up 7 times from its $17 billion revenue some 20 years ago.

Even if growth slows for Amazon though, it is still one of the companies with potential to become the world's first $1 trillion company, according to Wall Street.