華爾街為何不再關注特朗普的言論
上周,世界上最有影響力的思想者和潮流引領者在貝弗利山召開年會。企業領袖和主要投資者在會上表示,他們已經習慣于忽略唐納德·特朗普總統的大多數言論或者推文。 在米爾肯研究院全球年會的座談會上,首席執行官和億萬富翁們普遍對特朗普的醫保改革、減稅、放松管制以及刺激經濟計劃持樂觀態度。摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙和對沖基金億萬富翁肯·格里芬等發言人對總統做出了積極評價,他們還敦促與會者給總統更多時間來實現這些宏偉目標。 但在會議間隙接受采訪時,這些華爾街人士卻對特朗普能否做點兒什么深表懷疑。 一位來自美國六大銀行的高管表示:“我不會把特朗普的話當真,而且聽的越來越少。” 和大多數希望私下表達較坦率看法的人一樣,這位高管要求不透露其身份,以免惹怒總統、自己的老板或者商業伙伴。但和路透社溝通時,至少有十幾位機構投資者和銀行高管表達了同樣的觀點。 雖然對特朗普能夠推動國會批準改革方案仍抱有希望,但他們指出,由于缺乏進展,再加上政府傳出的信息自相矛盾,很難讓人堅定信心。 幾名受訪者提到了財政部長史蒂文·努欽本周一的言論,后者在一次座談會上開玩笑說,銀行投資者應該感謝他提振了股價。幾個小時后,彭博新聞社報道了對特朗普的采訪,后者表示他正在考慮拆分國內最大的幾家銀行——摩根大通、美銀和花旗集團等銀行的股東對這樣的想法深惡痛絕。 不過,在貝弗利希爾頓酒店召開的本次會議上,看來幾乎沒有人把總統的這番話當真。 商業律師事務所Hogan Lovells監管事務律師艾倫·卡特勒說:“成為法律前,你都不能對此抱有希望。”卡特勒是銀行和對沖基金在國會的游說代表,接受采訪時正在一個陽光露臺上踱步。他說自己的客戶尚未就政府的任何表態采取行動。 普華永道金融服務監管事務部門上周發表的報告和卡特勒觀點一致。盡管特朗普表示要迅速采取行動,但普華永道預計他的命令將“取得的成果了了”,推翻多德-弗蘭克法案的計劃不會成行,而且政府的任何調整都將步調緩慢,原因是缺乏共識、任命程序拖沓以及中期選舉即將到來。 我們請特朗普的一位女發言人就此發表評論,但本文刊發時尚未得到回應。 雖然私下里對政府自相矛盾的信息不以為然,但華爾街大佬們在本次會議以及會后的奢華派對上仍和白宮高官眉來眼去。在一個晚間聚會上,有位嘉賓跑得像圣地亞哥動物園的獵豹一樣快。 除了努欽,商務部長威爾伯?羅斯、交通部長趙小蘭和教育部長貝琪·德沃斯都是本次米爾肯年會的特邀發言人。他們都有商業或金融背景,這讓其他與會者倍感振奮。 有些人指出,最終他們必須判斷一下特朗普的話是為了在政治上給自己加分,還是他真的希望實現這樣的目標。如果是前一種情況,把總統的言論拋諸腦后就更為容易。一家管理數十億美元資產的對沖基金公司負責人說,目前的局面已經變成了“一場羅夏墨跡測驗”,人們對特朗普的話歡欣鼓舞還是無動于衷取決于他們自己想看到什么。 CQS是一家規模達到125億美元的投資公司,其創始人邁克爾·辛茲爵士說人們對總統過于苛刻。特朗普本質上不是政界人士,所以其風格可能有所不同,但他的初衷是好的。 辛茲爵士表示:“我對整體情況的看法相當積極。在會上每個人都說恨他,(但)特朗普是個正派的人。”(財富中文網) 譯者:Charlie 審稿:夏林 |
At an annual gathering of the world's most powerful thinkers and trendsetters in Beverly Hills this week, business leaders and major investors said they have gotten used to dismissing most things that President Donald Trump says or tweets. On panels at the Milken Institute Global Conference, CEOs and billionaires were generally enthusiastic about Trump's mission to reform health care, cut taxes, reduce regulations, and stimulate the economy. Panelists including JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon and hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin offered positive remarks about the president and urged attendees to give him more time to accomplish such sizeable goals. But in interviews on the sidelines, the Wall Street set was far more dubious that Trump can get anything done. "I don't take Trump seriously," said a senior executive at one of the country's six largest banks. "I'm listening less and less." Like most who wanted to share their more candid views privately, the executive spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid angering the president, his employer or business associates. But his comments were echoed by at least a dozen institutional investors and bank executives who spoke to Reuters. While they remain hopeful Trump will be able to get reforms through Congress, the lack of progress combined with conflicting messages coming out of the administration make it hard to put faith in anything, they said. Several cited comments on Monday from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who joked on a panel that bank investors should thank him for boosting share prices. Hours later, Bloomberg News published an interview with Trump, in which said he was considering breaking up the country's biggest banks – an idea that is an anathema to shareholders of lenders like JPMorgan, Bank of America Corp or Citigroup Inc. However, few people at the event in the Beverly Hilton Hotel appeared to take the comment seriously. "Until it's signed into law, you can't bank on it," said Aaron Cutler, a regulatory lawyer at Hogan Lovells who lobbies Congress on behalf of banks and hedge funds and was milling about on a sunny terrace. He said his clients are not yet acting on anything the administration says. A report last week by PwC's financial services regulatory practice echoed that view. Despite Trump's talk of quick action, PwC predicts his executive orders will "yield few results," that plans to repeal a package of financial regulations called Dodd-Frank will not happen, and that any change in Washington will be slow due to a lack of consensus, a slothy appointments process and upcoming midterm elections. A spokeswoman for Trump did not return a request for comment for this article by publication time. Even as Wall Street honchos privately disregard the administration's mixed messages, they were rubbing shoulders with top White House officials around the event and afterwards at swanky parties. Among the guests at one evening soirée was a cheetah from the San Diego Zoo. In addition to Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao and Education Secretary Betsy DeVos were all featured speakers at the Milken conference. Each has a background in business or finance, something other conference-goers found encouraging. Ultimately, some said, they have to consider whether Trump is making a statement to win political points or because he truly wants to accomplish a goal. If the former, his remarks can be more easily dismissed, they said. The head of a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm said the situation has become "a Rorschach test" where people celebrate or shrug off Trump's comments depending on what they want to see. Sir Michael Hintze, founder of $12.5 billion investment firm CQS, said people are being too hard on the president. Trump may have a different style because he is not a politician by nature, but has his heart in the right place, Hintze said. "I'm pretty constructive about the whole thing," he said. "Everyone was there to hate him, (but) Trump's a decent man." |