過去幾個月里，不少經濟學家和投資人都對中國經濟的健康水平表示了置疑。雖然過去十年間，中國一直是全球經濟的火車頭，也保持了很高的GDP增長率，但近年來中國的經濟增長卻有所放緩。去年，中國的GDP增長率為6.7%，為過去26年來的最低水平。展望未來，有人擔心中國經濟放緩很可能將成為一種長期趨勢，而不是短期現象。

然而我認為，中國仍然是一個重要的增長市場，尤其是在醫療行業。我剛剛在北京參加了中國發展論壇，期間有多場討論都圍繞著中國的經濟發展前景展開，而醫療產業則更是被提到了對經濟發展十分重要的位置。今年一月，中國國家主席習近平在參加世界經濟論壇時，也談到了創新對經濟發展的重要性，并提出傳統和新興行業都要推動創新型增長。

如今，中國已經成為繼美國后全球第二大醫藥市場。到2020年，中國醫藥市場的市值預計將達到3150億美元。這是因為中國和其他國家一樣，也面臨著人口老齡化以及隨而之來的慢性病患者群體日益增長的問題。到2050年，中國65歲以上的人口將超過3.29億人，這個數字比德法日英四國的人口總和還要多。中國15%的女性和10%的男性都存在體重超重的問題，因此中國也成了體重超標人口最多的國家。另外中國還有1億糖尿病患者，比世界上任何國家都要龐大。2015年，中國新增癌癥患者的人數為430萬人，占全球的兩成。

為了應對日益增長的醫療需求，過去十年中，中國政府也對醫療體系進行了大力改革。目前中國已有95%的人口納入了醫保體系。去年中國政府通過了建國以來醫療產業的首個長遠戰略規劃——《健康中國2030規劃綱要》。《綱要》提出要大力發展中國的醫療產業，使之成為國民經濟的中流砥柱。除了引導國民關注疾病預防和倡導健康的生活方式，《綱要》還提出要加快創新，使中國成為先進醫療技術研究的前沿陣地。今年，中國又將300種藥品納入了醫保清單。就在上周五，中國食品藥品監督管理局還發布了一批新政策，不再要求國內申報審批的新藥必須處于II期測試階段或是已在境外獲得審批，對在中國境內組織的臨床研究方面的限制也將放寬。另外，中國藥監局還計劃在年底前開通新藥電子申報服務。這些改革都有助于加快新藥進入中國市場的速度。

另一個積極跡象是中國的人才水平的提高。據麥肯錫公司的一份報告顯示，2016年，中國的理工科畢業生達到了470萬人，而同年美國的理工科畢業生只有56.8萬人。每年中國還有近3萬人獲得理工科博士學位。另外，中國還在科學領域創造了多個第一。我們在中國研發的第一款新藥MAK683（是一種專門治療鼻咽癌的遺傳信息藥物，該病在中國的發病率遠遠高于其他國家）已經進入了I期臨床試驗。

在諾華公司，我們發現中國存在著廣闊的創新機會，而我們的投資也反映了我們對中國中長期發展的信心。十年前，諾華在中國建立了第一個研究中心，迄今為止，我們已經對該中心投資了10億美元。可以說它是一個專門為中國建立的研發中心，有數百名科學家在那里專門探索中國人民高發疾病的新型療法。除了研發中心以外，我們在中國還建立了生產工廠和多樣化的業務組合，包含了創新藥物、護眼產品和仿制藥等多個業務領域。我們還與新疆維吾爾自治區政府展開了合作，幫助這個醫療資源不足的省份培訓醫療工作者。其他公司也意識到了投資中國市場的必要性。比如蘋果公司最近宣布，要在中國投資5億美元建立新的研究中心。

展望未來，中國的醫療產業仍然有著廣闊的創新領域，比如在移動醫療方面。中國目前約有7億網民，其中86%的人能通過手機上網。雖然過去幾年，市場對移動醫療領域的投資已經很多了，阿里巴巴和百度等互聯網公司也都在探索虛擬醫生和在線藥房等服務，但這個領域的進展仍然相對緩慢，且有很大的提升空間。數字醫療是未來幾年里中國醫療市場上很值得關注的一個領域。

中國作為一個堅實的市場，我對它的投資和發展前景感到很樂觀。中國有基礎設施，有人才，有政府的支持，還有很高的醫療需求，它必將成為一個繁榮的醫療創新市場。中國醫療產業的持續發展也將吸引大量外資，并創造無數就業機會，同時必將改善上億人的健康水平。未來，諾華將繼續通過不斷創新，改善和延長更多中國患者的生命。（財富中文網）

譯者：樸成奎

Over the last several months, some economists and investors have questioned the health of the Chinese economy. Although China has been a driving economic force for the last decade with significant annual increases in GDP, growth has slowed. Last year, China’s GDP grew 6.7%, the slowest in 26 years. Looking to the future, some question if a slowdown in China’s growth will be a long-term trend, not a short-term exception.

However, I see China as an important market for growth, particularly when it comes to the healthcare industry. I was just in Beijing for the China Development Forum, where multiple discussions centered on opportunities for economic growth, with healthcare as an industry high on the agenda for continued development. This reinforces President Xi Jinping’s remarks at the World Economic Forum in January , where he talked about the importance of innovation for economic growth, and committed to innovation-driven development in both traditional and emerging industries.

Today, China is the second largest pharmaceutical market in the world after the US , and its value is estimated to reach $315 billion in 2020. This is being driven by the enormous medical need in China, which – just like in other countries – is stemming from an aging population and an increase in chronic conditions. The number of people in China over age 65 is estimated to rise to more than 329 million in 2050, a figure that is more than the entire population of Germany, France, Japan and Britain combined. Almost 15% of women and 10% of men in China are overweight, making it the population with the largest number of overweight people in the world. China also has 100 million diabetics, a number higher than in any other nation. It also accounted for 20% of the world’s new cancer cases in 2015, with 4.3 million.

In response to these growing medical needs, the Chinese government has rolled out significant reforms to its healthcare system over the last decade. Today, over 95% of China’s population has access to health insurance. Last year, the Chinese government approved its Healthy China 2030 Planning Outline, the first long-term strategic plan for the country’s health sector since 1949. The plan aims to significantly expand China’s health industry, making it a mainstay of the national economy. In addition to focusing on prevention through healthy lifestyles, the plan aims to accelerate innovation, bringing China to the forefront of cutting-edge medical research. This year, China added 300 drugs to its national reimbursed drug list. Last Friday, the China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) proposed new policies that would no longer require drugs submitted for approval in China to either be in at least Phase II development or already approved outside of China. The requirement to conduct China-specific clinical studies in order to gain an approval would also be eased. In addition, the CFDA now plans to enable digital filings for new drug applications by the end of this year. These reforms are expected to help speed the entry of new drugs to the Chinese market.

Another positive sign is the level of talent in China, which is rising. In 2016, China had 4.7 million new STEM graduates – by comparison, the US had 568,000. And nearly 30,000 students in China earn PhDs in science and engineering each year, according to a 2016 McKinsey & Co report. China has also rolled out some impressive firsts in science. In addition, our first drug discovered in China, MAK683 (an epigenetic drug for nasopharyngeal carcinoma, which is more prevalent in China than elsewhere), has entered Phase I clinical trials.

At Novartis, we see great opportunities for innovation in China, and our investments reflect our confidence and commitment for the long-term. We first opened our research center in Shanghai 10 years ago, and have invested $ 1 billion to make it state-of-the-art. It’s a true discovery center for China, with hundreds of scientists working to find new therapies for diseases that primarily affect the Chinese people. In addition to our R&D operations in China, we also have manufacturing facilities and a diversified business portfolio, covering innovative medicines, eye care and generics. We’re also working with the local government in Xinjiang, a province with 23 million people and limited healthcare access, to train healthcare workers. Other companies are realizing the need to invest in China. For example, Apple (aapl) just announced plans to invest $ 500 million in new research centers in the market.

Looking to the future, there is also great opportunity for innovation in new areas of healthcare in China, such as mHealth. An estimated 700 million people in China have access to the internet, and the vast majority of them – 86% – can connect through their phones. While there has been a lot of investment in the mHealth space over the last several years, with companies like Alibaba and Baidu exploring services such as virtual physician consultations and online pharmacies, uptake has been slow and there is room for improvement. Digital health is an area to watch in the years ahead.

I’m optimistic about China as a strong market for investment and future growth, particularly for healthcare. China has the infrastructure, the talent, and government support – as well as high medical need – to be a thriving market for healthcare innovation. Continued development of the industry can also attract foreign investment and create jobs, while improving the health of millions of people. We, at Novartis, look forward to working to deliver new innovations that will improve and extend the lives of many more Chinese patients in the years ahead.