受資金管制影響,中國投資者風光不再
多年來,現金充裕的中國投資者在全球飽受熱捧。不過如今,他們的現金卻失去了光芒。 中國正在加大力度阻止資金外流。此舉使得國內外投資者對于在這個全球第二大經濟體內外完成交易顯得信心不足。 投資銀行瑞士聯合銀行(UBS)歐洲、中東和非洲并購業務主任塞韋林·布里澤表示,過去兩年中,中國投資者的身影活躍在各種交易中,他們很受歡迎。 他說:“客戶在以前會問,能不能確保讓中國投資者參加。如今,情況正好相反:他們會問,因為中國投資方面臨的國內問題,能不能在競標時排除他們。” 交易商表示,許多中國公司無法完成交易,因為他們得不到官方許可,沒辦法把人民幣換成外匯。 在此之前,從去年年底起,中國當局就開始收緊對資金外流的限制,約束官員所稱的“不合理”對外投資。國際金融研究所(The Institute of International Finance)估計,去年中國外流的資金高達7,250億美元,創造了歷史記錄,今年情況可能更甚。 去年,人民幣對美元的匯率下滑6.5%,這是1994年以來跌幅最大的一次,也促使央行動用數千億美元儲備,以免這次下滑演變成暴跌。 中國的外匯管理機構國家外匯管理局未回應對此事的評論請求。 影響 中國當局的舉措產生了顯著的影響。 中國在去年12月的海外直接投資(ODI)同比下滑了40%,僅有84.1億美元,這也是2016年最低的一個月。今年1月,中國企業購買海外房地產的數量也出現跳水。 全球股票指數提供商明晟(MSCI)表達了對中國采取措施限制資本外流,以及擱置新期貨交易合同的計劃的關注。因為潛在的外方擔心他們無法把獲取的人民幣利潤帶出中國。 The Wrap網站在近日表示,中國大型綜合企業和影院連鎖運營商大連萬達(Dalian Wanda)曾計劃以10億美元收購美國娛樂集團Dick Clark Productions Inc,卻因為無法把資金帶出中國,未能得到監管方的許可而流產。 另一個案例中,涉入某項目的一位顧問表示,中國投資方沒有得到當局的許可,無法將人民幣兌換成3,000萬美元,完成與美方的交易。他們計劃以1億美元投資美國住宅房地產的方案因此未能實現。 法律公司Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe上海分公司的合伙人孫杰稱:“現在賣方都會要求提供一定的證明。從他們的角度來看,這種擔憂是合情合理的。” 不過,律師也表示,盡管中國監管方開始更嚴格地審查提議的交易,但這并不代表他們關上了境外投資的大門。 孫杰稱,如果交易在經濟上有意義,就會得到監管方的批準。例如,如果一家鋼鐵制造公司想要收購足球俱樂部,就“不太可能”被通過。 “嚇壞了” 幫助中國企業對外投資的基金公司,如中國東方資產管理股份有限公司,已經改變了戰術。這家公司之前為面向歐美房地產的基金募集資金。公司的一位高管表示,如今他們把目光轉向了離岸金融市場。 該公司拒絕了正式采訪的請求。 律師和銀行家表示,各公司如果能夠獲得境外資金,也會嘗試繞過申請外匯購買的過程。 一位不愿透露姓名的上海并購律師表示:“現在每筆交易都在優先尋求境外資金的支持,而不是獲取資金監管方的許可。” 迪羅基(Dealogic)的數據顯示,中國公司在2016年創紀錄地發行了1,110億美元的境外美元債券,較之2015年的880億美元有大幅上漲。穆迪評級服務的副總經理伊凡·鐘表示,這些資金一部分已經用于海外投資。 中國大型企業海航集團去年宣布,公司對外交易的金額達到了約200億美元。而湯森路透的數據顯示,該公司2016年至少在境外借貸了170.5億美元。 追蹤中國直接投資的咨詢公司Rhodium Group表示,整體來看,去年中國對外投資的規模達到了歷史最高,不過本來還可能要高得多。2016年,涉及中國公司、金額高達740億美元的30筆交易在美國和歐洲擱淺,同樣為歷史最高。 Rhodium合伙人、哥倫比亞大學(Columbia University)兼職教授丹尼爾·羅森表示:“現在,每個人都被資本管制嚇壞了。” 不過,在溫哥華的高端社區West Side,房地產經紀人湯姆·葛雷卡對中國的政策不太擔心。這里很受外國投資者青睞,住房的價格高達幾百萬美元。 他表示,過去,中國投資者就試圖尋找繞過資本管制的方式。 他說:“這用不了多長時間。人們真的希望來到這里。我認為資本管制阻止不了他們。”(財富中文網) 譯者:嚴匡正 |
For years, cash -rich Chinese investors have been highly sought after the world over. Now, their cash is losing its cachet. China's increasing efforts to prevent capital from leaving the country are eroding the confidence of domestic and foreign investors about getting deals done inside and outside of the world's second-biggest economy. Chinese bidders had become ubiquitous in deals in the past two years and were welcomed, said Severin Brizay, head of Europe, the Middle East and Africa mergers and acquisitions for the investment bank UBS. "Clients were asking if it would be possible to make sure they are involved. Now, we are seeing the reverse: some clients are asking if we can do it without Chinese bidders because of the domestic challenges they face," he said. Dealmakers said many Chinese firms are unable to close deals because they can not secure official permission to transfer yuan into foreign exchange. This follows a series of measures by authorities since late last year to tighten restrictions on capital outflows and rein in what officials have called "irrational" outbound investment. The Institute of International Finance estimated capital outflows surged to a record $725 billion last year and it expects even higher outflows this year. The yuan fell more than 6.5% last year against the dollar, its steepest decline since 1994, prompting the central bank to spend hundreds of billions of dollars in reserves to prevent the slide from turning into a slump. China's foreign exchange regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, did not respond to requests for comment. IMPACT The measures by authorities have had a dramatic impact. Overseas direct investment (ODI) by Chinese in December fell almost 40% from a year earlier to $8.41 billion, the lowest monthly level in 2016. In January, overseas property purchases by Chinese corporations plunged. Global stock index provider MSCI expressed concern about the capital outflow measures and China shelved plans for a new crude futures contract because potential foreign participants were worried they would not be able to take yuan profits out of the country. Chinese conglomerate and cinema chain operator Dalian Wanda's proposed $1 billion purchase of U.S. entertainment group Dick Clark Productions Inc collapsed over problems getting currency out of China and regulatory approval, online website The Wrap said on Monday. In another case, a Chinese investor was unable to get permission from authorities to exchange yuan into $30 million to close a U.S. deal, a consultant involved in the project said. The planned $100 million investment in a U.S. residential property portfolio fell through. "Sellers nowadays will request certain proof," said Jeffrey Sun, a Shanghai-based partner at the legal practice of Orrick, Herrington and Sutcliffe. “From the sellers’ side, the worry is justified.” Still, while Chinese regulators are putting proposed deals under greater scrutiny, it does not mean they are shutting the door on outbound investment, lawyers said. Regulators will approve deals if they make economic sense, Sun said. For example, a steel manufacturer buying a soccer club "is unlikely" to be approved, he said. "FREAKED OUT" Fund managers that help Chinese invest abroad, such as China Orient Summit Capital, are changing tack. The firm had been raising money in China for funds to target U.S. and European real estate. It is now looking to raise money in offshore markets, an executive at the company said. China Orient Summit Capital declined a request for a formal interview. Companies are also looking to avoid the approval process for buying foreign exchange if they have access to funds outside of China, lawyers and bankers said. "Every deal at this point is looking for some way to identify offshore funds rather than deal with the capital controls," said an M&A lawyer in Shanghai, who declined to be identified. Chinese companies raised a record $111 billion in offshore dollar bonds in 2016, according to data from Dealogic, up from $88 billion in 2015. Some of those funds would have been earmarked for overseas investments, said Ivan Chung, associate managing director at Moody’s ratings service. Chinese conglomerate HNA Group announced about $20 billion in outbound deals last year. Thomson Reuters data shows it raised at least $17.05 billion in loans abroad in 2016. Overall, China's outbound investment hit a record last year but could have been much higher, said the Rhodium Group, a consultancy that tracks direct investment from China. It said a record 30 deals worth $74 billion and involving Chinese companies were canceled in the United States and Europe in 2016. "Right now everybody is thoroughly freaked out by capital controls," Daniel Rosen, a Rhodium partner and adjunct professor at Columbia University, said. Still, on Vancouver's upscale West Side, a neighborhood popular with foreign buyers where the price of homes runs in the millions of dollars, realtor Tom Gradecak was less worried about Chinese demand. In the past, Chinese investors have tended to find ways around capital controls, he said. "It won't take them long," he said. "The people that really want to come here, I don't think it's going to stop them." |