2016年發(fā)生了不少大事。這一年，英國(guó)脫歐，特朗普當(dāng)選，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)也一路滑向下行的軌道。

考慮到各種意外因素層出不窮，華爾街對(duì)2017年的預(yù)測(cè)還能有幾分準(zhǔn)頭呢？不過華爾街幾大銀行在仔細(xì)研究了經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)、歷史趨勢(shì)和社交媒體等資料的基礎(chǔ)上，還是對(duì)2017年給出了自己的預(yù)測(cè)。

很多銀行都認(rèn)為，明年特朗普將降低稅收并放松監(jiān)管力度。不過《財(cái)富》選取的一些華爾街知名分析師卻在他們的2017年展望報(bào)告中對(duì)即將到來的一年做出了許多極為有趣的預(yù)測(cè)。

摩根士丹利：與特朗普在大選期間的承諾相反，特朗普的政策實(shí)際上將促進(jìn)美國(guó)的進(jìn)口增長(zhǎng)，降低美國(guó)的出口增長(zhǎng)。

The U.K. broke away from the European Union, Americans elected Donald Trump for president, and despite all the doom and gloom the world economy has clung on to its track.

Considering all these surprises, can Wall Street really predict what 2017 will bring? Probably not. Nonetheless, taking a hard look at economic data, historical trends, and social media(in one case), the Street's biggest banks took a stab at it anyway.

Plenty of the banks were predicting that Trump would lower taxes and reduce regulation. But Fortune has picked through Wall Street's analysts 2017 outlook reports to find the most interesting predictions for the coming, unprecedented, new year.

Morgan Stanley: Trump's policies will actually boost import growth, and lower export growth—the opposite of his campaign promises.

華爾街的許多分析師似乎都忽略了特朗普經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃中的一個(gè)重要主張，即反自由貿(mào)易政策和驅(qū)逐移民計(jì)劃。對(duì)此，華爾街的態(tài)度是：忽略了就對(duì)了。

比如，高盛在其2017年展望報(bào)告中指出，外界對(duì)特朗普的反自由貿(mào)易言論的擔(dān)憂“很可能過頭了”。如瑞士信貸銀行指出：“我們的判斷是，圍繞貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義和移民政策的雄辯很快就會(huì)降低調(diào)門。”

摩根士丹利的分析師也認(rèn)為，2017年，美國(guó)的貿(mào)易赤字將進(jìn)一步加深，美國(guó)的出口貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)率將從2016年的2.6%下降至2.4%，而進(jìn)口貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)率則會(huì)從2016年的0.5%上升至4.4%。

該分析師團(tuán)隊(duì)寫道：“我們認(rèn)為特朗普不會(huì)履行提高關(guān)稅的承諾。從我們的基本面分析看，美國(guó)的消費(fèi)支出和商業(yè)投資都在增速，二者都會(huì)導(dǎo)致進(jìn)口貿(mào)易額的提高，此外到2017年年中，美元貿(mào)易加權(quán)指數(shù)有可能將上漲10%，從而會(huì)進(jìn)一步抑制出口?！?/p>

野村證券：美國(guó)勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率大幅提升

Many on Wall Street are largely ignoring a main tenant of Trump's economic plan: His anti-free trade policies and plans to deport immigrants. Wall Street's take: Perhaps they should be.

Goldman Sachs for example noted in its 2017 outlook that concerns over Trump's trade policy are "likely overdone." Credit Suisse said, "Our judgement is that the rhetoric on protectionism and immigration will be toned down."

Similarly, Morgan Stanley analysts predict that in 2017, the trade deficit will deepen, with exports growing slower than before, 2.4% compared to the expected 2.6% in 2016. Imports on the other hand will jump from 0.5% in 2016 to 4.4% in 2017, the bank estimates.

"We are clear in the note that we assume Trump will not deliver on his promises to raise tariffs," the team wrote. "In our baseline we have a faster pace of consumer spending and business investment, both of which result in higher imports, as well as a 10% rise in the trade-weighted dollar through mid-2017, which depresses exports."

Nomura: way too much U.S. productivity.

許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和分析師都注意到，在過去的幾個(gè)季度中，美國(guó)的勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率（也就是每名工人的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出）基本呈平穩(wěn)或下滑趨勢(shì)。但是到了2017年，該指標(biāo)或?qū)⒊霈F(xiàn)顯著的意外上升。這可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)動(dòng)蕩。至少日本的野村證券認(rèn)為存在這種可能。

野村證券的分析師團(tuán)隊(duì)寫道：“我們知道，低投資是導(dǎo)致勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率不足的一個(gè)主要因素。美國(guó)在房地產(chǎn)和設(shè)備領(lǐng)域的投資顯然處在衰退的水平，但知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)和研發(fā)領(lǐng)域的投資卻已經(jīng)接近了后危機(jī)時(shí)代的最高水平。由于這種投資是較為無形的，所以很容易被人忽略。但它也能為勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率的提高打下了基礎(chǔ)。如果這種情況真的發(fā)生了，那它對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響將是十分深遠(yuǎn)的，包括證券市場(chǎng)走強(qiáng)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)采取更加激進(jìn)的加息政策等?！?/p>

換言之，他們的觀點(diǎn)是：人們期待以久的勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率提升可能對(duì)股市產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。高通脹很可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致利率上漲。如果利率上漲了，那么對(duì)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)和股市來說總體是件壞事。它也會(huì)使債券更具有吸引力。

當(dāng)然，特朗普勝選后，目前大量投資者仍然在扎堆擠向股市。

不過野村的分析師團(tuán)隊(duì)也指出，美國(guó)勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率的這種意外猛增并非是一個(gè)大概率事件。

瑞士信貸：工資猛漲將損害GDP

雖然以瑞銀為代表的一些銀行認(rèn)為工資水平的上漲對(duì)GDP有好處，但瑞士信貸卻指出，低失業(yè)率和高工資或許是企業(yè)利潤(rùn)降低的信號(hào)——因此也預(yù)示著GDP增長(zhǎng)率的降低。

瑞士信貸在其2017年展望報(bào)告中指出：“我們所擔(dān)心的是，隨著失業(yè)率略微下降，勞動(dòng)力正在獲得更高的定價(jià)權(quán)。這一點(diǎn)從就業(yè)成本指數(shù)的工資構(gòu)成數(shù)據(jù)、平均時(shí)薪數(shù)據(jù)和亞特蘭大儲(chǔ)備銀行對(duì)更換工作者的工資追蹤數(shù)據(jù)中可以明顯看出。一般說來，隨著工資占GDP的比重上漲，利潤(rùn)占GDP的比重就會(huì)下滑。利潤(rùn)的下降一般與GDP增長(zhǎng)率的減速是同步的（因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)會(huì)重新考慮資本支出和用工問題），特別是在當(dāng)前企業(yè)杠桿率相對(duì)較高的背景下?！?/p>

根據(jù)美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù)，今年九月，美國(guó)文職雇員經(jīng)季節(jié)因素調(diào)整后的薪酬成本上漲了0.6%，光是工資一項(xiàng)便上漲了0.5%。

據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織預(yù)測(cè)，2017年，美國(guó)的GDP增長(zhǎng)率大約將在2.2%左右。

富國(guó)銀行：2017年將是對(duì)沖基金和選股專家的黃金年份

Economists and analysts have noted that U.S. productivity, a measure of output per worker, has remained flat or fallen in the past few quarters—despite advances in technology. But in 2017, that measure could ramp up dramatically and unexpectedly. That would result in a shock to markets. At least that's what U.S. analysts at Japanese bank Nomura say is a possibility.

"We know that low investment has been a key contributor to poor productivity. It certainly has been true that investment in buildings and equipment is at recessionary levels. But investment in intellectual property and Research & Development is running at close to post-crisis highs. The fact that this form of investment is less tangible makes it easy to miss. It could also provide the foundation for a surge in productivity. Were this this to happen, implications for the markets would be far-reaching from stronger equity markets to a more aggressive Fed hiking path," the team wrote.

Their point: The long awaited productivity boom could be bad for stocks. Higher inflation likely would lead to interest rate increases. And when interest rates rise, that's generally bad for corporate profits and the stock market. It also makes bonds more attractive.

Of course, for now, investors have largely piled into stocks following Trump's election.

Nomura also added that such an unforeseen surge in U.S. productivity however, is unlikely.

Credit Suisse: In which wages grow so high it could cut into GDP

While banks such as UBS see rising wages as a boon to GDP growth, Credit Suisse noted that lower unemployment and higher wages could be a signal of lower corporate profits—and therefore lower GDP.

In their lists of concerns for 2017, Credit Suisse noted: "The worry we have is that labour, with the unemployment rate edging lower, is getting more pricing power. This is evident in the recent wage component of Employment Cost Index data, average hourly earnings and the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker for job switchers. Ordinarily, as the wage share of GDP rises, the profit share of GDP falls. A fall in profits normally coincides with decelerating GDP growth (as corporates reconsider capex and employment decisions), especially against the current backdrop of relatively high corporate leverage."

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, compensation costs for civilian employees, on a seasonally adjusted basis, rose 0.6% in the three months ending in September. Wages alone rose 0.5% during that period.

The International Monetary Fund has forecasted U.S. GDP at 2.2% for 2017.

Wells Fargo: 2017 Will Be a Year for the Hedge Funds and Stock Pickers

研究機(jī)構(gòu)Preqin公司指出，對(duì)沖基金在2016年年初的市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩中遭受了一次不小的沖擊，這也導(dǎo)致了以緊跟指數(shù)為特點(diǎn)的交易所交易基金等被動(dòng)型投資策略受到追捧。投資者們注意到，對(duì)沖基金行業(yè)作為一個(gè)整體，其年內(nèi)的表現(xiàn)還不如費(fèi)用較低的標(biāo)普500基金。這也導(dǎo)致了今年前九個(gè)月里，對(duì)沖基金出現(xiàn)了高達(dá)667億美元的資金流失。

不過在富國(guó)銀行的2017年展望中，富國(guó)銀行投資機(jī)構(gòu)（Wells Fargo Investment Institute）的全球另類投資總監(jiān)亞當(dāng)·塔巴克表示，市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性將成為2017年的一個(gè)主題，這也為主動(dòng)投資策略創(chuàng)造了合適的條件。

“采取全球多樣化投資策略的低凈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資經(jīng)理人能夠應(yīng)對(duì)較高的波動(dòng)性環(huán)境，這樣使得投資人可以專注于釋放價(jià)值，追加對(duì)傳統(tǒng)證券的資金配置?！?塔巴克寫道：“選股仍將是一項(xiàng)熱門業(yè)務(wù)，這就是我們?yōu)槭裁丛诠善睂?duì)沖和相對(duì)價(jià)值等低凈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資策略上表現(xiàn)得更具建設(shè)性的原因。

不過據(jù)對(duì)沖基金研究公司（Hedge Fund Research）統(tǒng)計(jì)，從第二季度開始，對(duì)沖基金的收益的確開始向好，到12月7日為止，收益為2.26%。

加拿大皇家銀行：特朗普的推文左右股市

和前幾任美國(guó)總統(tǒng)不同，“嘴炮大王”特朗普說話時(shí)從不顧忌政治正確這回事。他的推特賬號(hào)是他的主要發(fā)聲平臺(tái)，但他現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)成了美國(guó)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，因此他在推特上的發(fā)言也就具備了影響市場(chǎng)的能力。本月，特朗普曾在推特上吐槽波音公司生產(chǎn)的“空軍一號(hào)”成本瀕臨“失控”，并威脅要取消訂單，導(dǎo)致波音股票上周應(yīng)聲下跌。一周后，特朗普又將嘴炮的目標(biāo)瞄準(zhǔn)了另一家航空和國(guó)防公司——洛克希德馬丁，已經(jīng)預(yù)感到洛馬要倒霉的對(duì)沖基金果然借該公司的股票下跌狠賺了一筆。

加拿大皇家銀行認(rèn)為，就算特朗普入主了白宮，他也不會(huì)戒掉“推特治國(guó)”的愛好，市場(chǎng)被他的嘴炮轟得時(shí)有波動(dòng)也是在所難免的事。

“這位當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)有想到什么就說什么的習(xí)慣，不管他想說的話是否政治正確，也不符合華爾街一貫謹(jǐn)慎的語言風(fēng)格?！痹诩幽么蠡始毅y行的2017年展望中，該行指出，特朗普的一言一行可能會(huì)給市場(chǎng)帶來更多的不確定性?！疤乩势盏臓?zhēng)議言論有時(shí)可能會(huì)造成不確定性，并給市場(chǎng)造成慌亂。更重要的是，特朗普在貿(mào)易和移民問題上的動(dòng)作有可能會(huì)造成市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

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作者：Lucinda Shen

譯者：樸成奎

Hedge funds took a pummeling at the start of 2016 in a volatile market, giving a boost to passive investing strategies such as exchange-traded funds, which track an index. Investors noted that hedge funds as a whole have underperformed the S&P 500 funds generally come with lower fees—resulting in some $66.7 billion in hedge fund outflows in the first nine months of 2016, according to Preqin.

But in the Wells Fargo's 2017 Outlook, Wells Fargo Investment Institute's head of global alternative investments, Adam Taback, says that volatility will be a main theme in 2017. That provides the right conditions for active investing.

"Globally diversified low-net managers can navigate higher volatility. This can allow investors to focus on unlocking value and complement allocations to traditional equities," Taback wrote. "Security selection should remain favorable, which is why we are more constructive on strategies that have low net-exposure profiles such as Equity Hedge and Relative value."

Granted, hedge funds did turn positive starting in the second quarter, churning out returns of 2.26% by Dec. 7, according to Hedge Fund Research.

RBC: Markets will be at the mercy of Trump's twitter feed.

Unlike his predecessors, Trump has been less concerned with walking the straight line of political correctness. His Twitter feed has also been known to be his medium for communication, except now that he is the leader of the U.S., his tweets can shift markets. In early December, shares of Boeing took a dip last week after the president-elect tweeted that the cost of a Boeing-built Air Force One would be "out of control" and exclaimed: "Cancel order!" A a week later, hedge funds were able to profit when Lockheed's Martin's stock fell by predicting Trump's tweet slamming the aerospace and defense company.

Canadian bank RBC expects Trump's market moving tweets won't end when the president-elect enters the White House.

"[T]he president-elect has a propensity to say what’s on his mind, regardless of whether it’s politically correct or comports with the typically more cautious language of Wall Street," In RBC's 2017 outlook, the bank noted that what Trump says and does now could create more uncertainty in markets. "Controversial statements could create uncertainty and rattle the market at times. More substantively and importantly, Trump’s actions on trade or immigration could generate market swings."