就在唐納德·特朗普成功當選美國總統讓權威專家們大跌眼鏡的同一天晚上，印度總理納倫德拉·穆迪也拋出了一枚重磅炸彈： 印度500和1000盧比面值的鈔票，將在一夜之間變成“一文不值的廢紙”。穆迪宣布，這兩種面值（分別價值約7.37美元和14.74美元，占印度貨幣的86%）的鈔票將停止流通。印度國民需要在12月30日之前，將舊鈔換成新鈔。

穆迪警告稱，這兩種面值的貨幣突然停止流動，可能會帶來短暫的痛苦，而事實也確實如此： 印度不止沒有準備好新面值的鈔票，國內為數不多的ATM機也沒有做好準備。這些機器需要經過重新配置，才能處理新鈔。由于數以百萬計的印度人要在銀行排隊等待數天時間（甚至有報道稱，有數十人因為排隊死亡），導致國內經濟完全陷入了停滯。現金短缺導致其他人選擇了以物易物，而高盛（Goldman Sachs）將印度2017年的GDP預期下調了1.5%。

對于該方案能否實現最初的目的——消滅逃稅的“黑錢”，以打擊腐敗，許多人持懷疑態度。不過，該行動還有另外一項好處： 印度90%的交易為現金交易，而現金不足催生了其他交易方式的誕生。比特幣和數字支付使用率大幅提高（不足2%的印度人持有信用卡）。或許，印度將由此走上成為更高效的無現金經濟的道路——不過這個過程必然充滿崎嶇。（財富中文網）

作者：Erika Fry

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

The same night that Donald Trump stunned pundits and became America’s President-elect, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi dropped a bomb of his own: At midnight, his country’s 500- and 1,000-rupee notes would become “worthless little slips of paper.” He was taking those notes (worth about $7.37 and $14.74, respectively), amounting to 86% of India’s currency, out of circulation. Indians were given until Dec. 30 to swap their old bills for new ones.

Modi warned that the surprise demonetization might involve short-term pain, and it has: The new bills weren’t ready, nor were the nation’s few ATMs, which had to be reconfigured to distribute them. The economy all but ground to a halt as millions spent their days waiting in bank lines (dozens, according to reports, died doing so). The cash crunch has led others to resort to bartering, and Goldman Sachs has shaved 1.5% from its 2017 GDP forecast for India.

Many are skeptical the scheme will achieve its original aim—eradicating the untaxed “black money” that fuels corruption. But there’s another likely benefit: 90% of transactions in India involve cash, and the lack of it has boosted alternatives. Bitcoin and digital payment use have surged (fewer than 2% of Indians have credit cards). India may be on the way to a more efficient, cashless economy—it’s just going to be a bumpy ride.