唐納德·特朗普贏得美國(guó)大選舉世震驚，也讓專家學(xué)者大跌眼鏡。同樣令人不解的是美股在特朗普當(dāng)選后大漲。因?yàn)楣墒猩蠐P(yáng)意味著市場(chǎng)相信特朗普政府能克服經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域很有挑戰(zhàn)的“攔路虎”。

投資者看漲美股是因?yàn)椋A(yù)計(jì)特朗普減稅（企業(yè)稅和個(gè)稅）、增加國(guó)防和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面的政府支出（1萬(wàn)億美元是很大手筆）和減少監(jiān)管（“多德-弗蘭克”法案早就是眼中釘）會(huì)有明顯收效，帶領(lǐng)美國(guó)進(jìn)入GDP快速增長(zhǎng)的輝煌周期，推動(dòng)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)，刺激就業(yè)和強(qiáng)勁消費(fèi)，甚至提升增速（泡沫興起、退潮，然后重復(fù)）。

大選后金融市場(chǎng)一片狂歡，卻沒(méi)人擔(dān)心特朗普計(jì)劃限制移民和貿(mào)易的負(fù)面影響，遑論以下五大宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的利空因素，無(wú)論誰(shuí)當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)，都要面對(duì)這些難題。

1、別傻了，這是周期性問(wèn)題。

據(jù)美國(guó)非營(yíng)利機(jī)構(gòu)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所（NBER）測(cè)算，本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張始于2009年6月，時(shí)長(zhǎng)在二戰(zhàn)后排第四。盡管如此，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)周期不會(huì)因?yàn)槌掷m(xù)時(shí)間久告終，宣告增長(zhǎng)結(jié)束的通常是高賦稅、監(jiān)管不力，更經(jīng)常的原因則是貨幣政策收緊，而貨幣緊縮正是“特朗普經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”面臨的第二個(gè)難關(guān)。

2、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)盡顯鷹派立場(chǎng)

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)貨幣政策決策機(jī)構(gòu)聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)（FOMC）的會(huì)議紀(jì)要和聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員講話表明，一段時(shí)間以來(lái)，聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一直努力推動(dòng)貨幣政策“正常化”。特朗普承諾的增加財(cái)政支出可能會(huì)推升通脹，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)也就有了加息的理由。無(wú)論出于何種動(dòng)機(jī)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息都將使個(gè)人消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)借貸受限，進(jìn)而妨礙經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。對(duì)投資者來(lái)說(shuō)，華爾街流傳甚廣的“加息三次跌一回” 值得銘記。

3、國(guó)會(huì)難以發(fā)揮功能

由于共和黨掌握了白宮和國(guó)會(huì)，特朗普的財(cái)政刺激政策付諸實(shí)踐機(jī)會(huì)很大。而這些刺激方案會(huì)導(dǎo)致預(yù)算赤字。著名智庫(kù)布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)（the Brookings Institution）和城市研究所（the Urban Institute）估算，特朗普的減稅計(jì)劃生效后，美國(guó)政府年度赤字一下就會(huì)增加將近8000億美元，隨著時(shí)間推移還會(huì)增加。赤字激增可能激起茶黨人士和財(cái)政傾向保守的眾議員反對(duì)。另外，共和黨人在參議院不會(huì)獲得多數(shù)席位。

4、全球貿(mào)易江河日下

特朗普踐行“美國(guó)優(yōu)先”政策以前，國(guó)際貿(mào)易已經(jīng)在走下坡路。如果特朗普?qǐng)?jiān)持在美國(guó)和墨西哥邊境修“長(zhǎng)城”，嚴(yán)格限制移民，重新進(jìn)行貿(mào)易協(xié)議的談判（或者撕毀協(xié)議），必然打壓全球GDP增長(zhǎng)，屆時(shí)美國(guó)也無(wú)法置身事外。大選結(jié)束后不久，眾議院籌款委員會(huì)（the House Ways and Means Committee）主席凱文·布拉迪表示：“要發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)，只號(hào)召人們支持本國(guó)貨還不夠，要把美國(guó)制造賣到全球各地。”

5、人口問(wèn)題注定無(wú)解。

美國(guó)人口正趨老齡化。美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局（BLS）數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2015年，將近15%的國(guó)人年逾65歲。全美第三大智庫(kù)皮尤研究中心稱，截至2050年，美國(guó)人里“預(yù)計(jì)最年老的人群增速最快”。人口老齡化會(huì)給美國(guó)的社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)福利（Social Security）和聯(lián)邦醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)（Medicare）施加更多壓力。特朗普此前鼓吹保持政府提供的社會(huì)福利不變，如果他說(shuō)到做到，美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室（Congressional Budget Office）預(yù)計(jì)，到2026年政府預(yù)算赤字將增至1.34萬(wàn)億美元。假若成真，美國(guó)政府債務(wù)與GDP之比將由75%升至85%，債息與所有政府支出之比將由目前的7.5%增至13%。如此可怕的數(shù)字意味著，私人領(lǐng)域的投資可能被迫出逃，全球的美國(guó)國(guó)債投資者會(huì)要求更高的利息。值得一提的是，美股歡慶特朗普勝選時(shí)，美債卻慘遭瘋狂拋售，可能預(yù)示了后面的苦日子。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

作者：Aaron Task

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

Donald Trump shocked the world and confounded the pundits by winning the presidency. And just as confounding was the way U.S. stocks surged in the aftermath—because implicit in that surge was a belief that a Trump administration could overcome some very challenging economic obstacles.

The bullish bet is that Trump’s plans to cut taxes (corporate and personal), boost spending on defense and infrastructure ($1 trillion is a lot of money), and cut regulations (so long, Dodd-Frank) will unleash a glorious cycle of faster GDP growth, leading to surging corporate profits, thus spurring hiring and more robust consumer spending and even-faster growth (lather, rinse, repeat).

Seemingly lost in the post-election euphoria was any concern about the potential negative ?effects of Trump’s planned restrictions on immigration and trade, not to mention these five macro headwinds any incoming President would have had to grapple with.

1. It’s the Cycle, Stupid

As measured by the ?National Bureau of Economic Research, the current economic expansion began in June 2009 and is already the fourth longest in the postwar era. That said, economic growth cycles don’t typically die of old age but are scuttled by higher taxes, unwise regulation, or—most often—tighter monetary policy, which leads us to obstacle No. 2 for ?Trumponomics…

2. Hawks in Flight at the Fed

Minutes of meetings from the Federal Open Market Committee and speeches by Fed officials suggest that the Federal Reserve has been itching to “normalize” policy for some time now. Trump’s promises to boost fiscal spending, which tends to spur inflation, gives the Fed reason to raise rates. No matter the impetus, higher rates will lead to constraints on credit for both consumers and businesses, which will crimp growth. For investors, the old Wall Street saw “Three hikes and a stumble” is worth remembering.

3. D.C. Dysfunction

Control of both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue gives the GOP a chance to enact Trump’s fiscal stimulus policies. That said, the proposals are budget busters—according to the Tax Policy Center at the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute, Trump’s tax plan would add close to $800 billion to the annual deficit when it first takes effect, with that amount increasing over time. That will likely stir opposition from Tea Party members and fiscal conservatives in the House. Plus, Republicans won’t have a filibuster-proof Senate majority.

4. Global Retreat

Even before Trump gets a chance to enact his “America First” policies, global trade is already on the downswing. If he sticks to his promises to build a wall on the Mexican border, sharply limit immigration, and renegotiate (or abandon) trade deals, that will certainly dampen global GDP growth and hurt the U.S. as well. As Kevin Brady, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said shortly after the election, “To grow our economy, it’s just not enough to buy American. We have to sell American around the world.”

5. Demographics as Destiny

The U.S. population is aging; nearly 15% of Americans were over age 65 in 2015, according to the Census Bureau. Between now and 2050, population growth “is expected to tilt strongly to the oldest age groups,” according to the Pew Research Center. An aging population will put more pressure on Social Security and Medicare. Assuming no change in legislation—and Trump campaigned on keeping those entitlements intact—the Congressional Budget Office predicts America’s deficit will expand to $1.34 trillion by 2026. Such an increase would raise the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio from 75% to 85% and send the cost of interest on our national debt to 13% of all spending from 7.5% currently. These scary numbers could crowd out investment in the private sector and result in global investors demanding much higher interest rates on Treasuries. Notably, while the stock market rejoiced in Trump’s victory, the bond market suffered a vicious selloff that could be a harbinger of tough times ahead.