美聯儲加息后《財富》5點預測：從錯誤中洞察未來
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這次加息又是一個經濟史上最公開的秘密。 像一年前一樣，美聯儲在周三將基準短期利率提升了25個基點。據彭博社報道，在消息公布前幾天，交易人員就把加息概率定在了100%。 在金融危機期間，美聯儲將基準信貸利率一路調低到零，此后，它有過兩次加息，這是第二次。 一年前，珍妮特·耶倫領導下的美聯儲實行了9年來的第一次加息，《財富》雜志對于之后的股市、信貸市場和全球整體形勢的動向做了一些預測，結果不怎么樣。 所以在解讀加息之前，我們先得辯解一下：預測不靈不能全怪我們，甚至主要不是我們的錯。一年前，大多數經濟學家認為，2015年12月美聯儲首次加息，之后就會一發不可收拾。這個觀點是有歷史先例的支持的。歷史上，美聯儲經常在一次調息之后連續出手，并且間隔時間都很短。然而，它直到昨天才第二次加息，且今年就這一次。所以，信貸市場和股票市場的走勢跟我們的預期不一致。 雖然預測錯誤，但是對一年前的事情做個回顧，也許能幫助我們預測對2017年甚至以后的情況。過去的一年可以很好地告訴我們，未來12個月將發生什么。美聯儲官員昨天表示，明年可能加息三次。 但期貨市場仍然認為明年只有兩次加息，下次要等到6月。而《財富》仍然認為，加息的節奏會更快一點。我們百分之百地肯定！ 下面，我們先對一年前的預測做個回顧，然后謹慎地預測一下明年的情況： |
It was, once again, one of the worst kept secrets in economic history. Just like it did a year ago, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday sent its key short-term interest rate up by a quarter of a percentage point. In the days before the announcement, traders had put the odds of a rate hike at 100%, according to Bloomberg data on futures markets. It was only the second time the Fed has increased rates since the U.S. central bank dropped its key lending level all the way down to zero during the financial crisis. A year ago, Fortune made some predictions about how the stock market, the lending market, and the world in general would change following that year’s hike, Janet Yellen & Co.’s first interest rate increase in nine years. (We also took a just-for-fun look at all the ways the world had changed since the last time rates were increased. Flip phone, anyone?)How did we do on last year’s predictions? Not great. Before the explanation, an excuse: It wasn’t entirely our fault, or even mostly our fault, that our projections didn’t pan out. A year ago, most economists thought the Fed’s December 2015 increase would be the first of many in a row. And there was good historical precedent for that. The Fed in the past has tended to follow one interest rate move with a number in relatively quick succession. Instead, it was one and done, until today. As a result, lending markets and the stock market didn’t react like we expected them to. Despite our errors, looking back at what happened a year ago may be able to tell us what to expect for 2017 and beyond. And this time, the past year might actually be a good predictor of what may happen in the next 12 months. On Wednesday, the Fed board members indicated that interest rates were likely to rise three times next year. But most people think the Fed will go slower than that. Futures markets are still pointing to just two rate increases next year, with the next hike not coming until June. Once, again, we think interest rates will go up faster than that. We’re 100% sure of it. Here’s a look back at our predictions from a year ago, and some slightly more cautious predictions for next year: |
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利率 大多數經濟學家認為，短期利率到2016年底會達到1.2%，但我們曾說，利率不會只漲這么點，最高可達2.6%。理由是：利率上行時，投資者一貫估計它的漲幅和漲速。這次顯然是我們不對。美聯儲周三將基準短期信貸利率提升到0.50%-0.75%區間，比我們預期的數字低了兩個百分點。 美聯儲官員說，在2017年底之前，還會有三次加息，利率至少達到1.2%。我們上面說過，市場對此持懷疑態度。但是，如果歷史還能說明點問題，明年的利率其實應該更高一些。而且，特朗普政府計劃通過減稅和增加基建支出來刺激經濟增長，這也應該推動利率上行。不過，這里可要警告你：我們以前預測錯過。 股票 《財富》雜志去年以為，加息的速度將快于預期，因此預測股票市場在2016年差得一塌糊涂。實際上并非如此。我們的根據是高盛公司的一份研究報告，里面預計，在美聯儲加息后的第一年，大盤最多跌10%，可實際上過去一年不但沒跌，反而有所上漲，當然大部分漲幅是在特朗普當選總統之后發生的。標普500指數今年漲了將近11%。 去哪里投資合適？我們說過，最好押寶科技股。這個判斷非常正確?？萍季x行業基金（SPDR），一個跟隨科技股走勢的交易所交易基金，在2016年漲幅超過14%。 不太正確的，是我們看多銀行股。很多市場戰略師都認為銀行股將受益于加息，因為更好的利率將提高借貸的利潤。我們沒有接受這一看法。歷史上，銀行股經常在利息上漲時跑輸大盤，我們認為，歷史會重演。事實是，銀行股今年上漲了22%。當然，大部分漲幅也是在特朗普當選后出現的，市場認為，新總統會減少管制。一年前，幾乎有人看到這點。 至于2017年，加息還會對市場產生影響。股票在美聯儲宣布加息決定后下挫，道瓊斯工業平均指數周三跌了119點。但好消息是，特朗普承諾采取的一些措施有可能推動經濟增長，更可能提高通脹和消費者支出。這些趨勢對股票構成利好，尤其是零售商的股票。 |
While most economists thought short-term interest rates would end 2016 at 1.2%, we said rates would go much higher than that, perhaps as high as 2.6%. Our reasoning: When rates do rise, investors have historically underestimated has far and how fast they will go up. Not this time apparently. On Wednesday, the Fed raised its key short-term lending rate to a range of 0.50%-to-0.75%, or about two percentage points below where we said it would be. The Fed members also predicted they would raise interest rates three more times to at least 1.25% by the end of 2017. Yes, markets are skeptical of that, as we mentioned above. Still, if history is any guide this time, rates will be even higher than that by this time next year. What’s more, Trump’s plans to stimulate economic growth with tax cuts and infrastructure spending should boost interest rates as well. But you’ve been warned: We’ve been wrong before. Stocks Since we thought interest rates would rise faster than expected, Fortune‘s prediction was that 2016 would be a pretty miserable year for stocks. It wasn’t. We cited aGoldman Sachs report that predicted stocks could fall as much as 10% in the first year after the Fed’s increase. They didn’t. Instead, the stock market in general has been up in the past year, though much of the rally has come since Donald Trump was elected. The S&P 500 is up nearly 11% this year. Where to invest? We said the best bet was technology stocks. And that was a good call. The Technology Select Sector SPDR, an exchange trade fund that tracks technology stocks is up just over 14% in 2016. Less good was our call on bank stocks. A lot of market strategists were pointing to bank stocks as the sector that would benefit the most from interest rate increases, since higher interest rates would boost lending profits. We didn’t buy it. Historically, bank stocks tended to underperform when rates rise and we said they would again. In fact, bank stocks have risen nearly 22% this year. Of course, once again, a lot of that has been since Trump has been elected, on the assumption that the new president will reduce regulation, something that few people saw coming a year ago. As for 2017, rising rates will again weigh on the market. Stocks fell after the Fed’s decision to raise rates,with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the day down 119 points. But the good news is that Trump has promised measures that are likely to push up growth, and even more likely to boost inflation and consumer spending. Those trends would be good for stocks, particularly those of retailers. |
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????????????????????????????? 債券雖然在2016年有所上漲，但近期在快速下跌。
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債券 債券價格會在利率上漲時下跌。一年前，我們認為，債券價格歷經多年上行之后，在2016年的表現可能相當不理想。我們說過，長期債券價格最多可能跌10%。和前面的預測一樣，這事又是沒有發生。 債市在2016年的表現的確不如股市，但也說不上太差。巴克萊銀行的美國綜合債券指數今年上漲了將近2.2%。長期國債價格也上升了，但漲幅不如綜合指數。更好的投資是長期企業債券，在2016年竟然上漲了5%。有誰想到了嗎？反正不是我們。 |
Bond prices fall when interest rates rise. A year ago, we thought that after years of gains in bond prices, 2016 could be worse than usual. We said long-term bond prices could fall as much as 10%. Once again: Didn’t happen. ?Bonds did do worse than stocks in 2016, but it was hardly a bloodbath. Overall, the Barclay’s U.S. Aggregate bond index is up nearly 2.2% this year. Long-term Treasury bonds rose, but not as much as the aggregate index. The 10-year Treasury bond is up 0.3% in 2016. The better bet was long-term corporate bonds. They are up just over 5% in 2016. Who knew? Not us. |
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??????????????????????????????? 美聯儲雖然加息，但銀行蓄戶幾乎沒有從中得到好處。
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銀行賬戶 加息后，銀行儲戶似乎是主要受益者。一年前，人們在爭論，銀行會不會給客戶相應地增加利息。之前，儲蓄賬戶、尤其是支票帳戶的利息接近于甚至等于零，如果算上自助柜員機的費用，實際上是負的。我們認為，銀行之間的競爭會令支票帳戶的利息有所提升。 但實際情況不是這么回事。一年后，儲蓄帳戶的平均利息是0.11%，支票帳戶基本沒利息。所以說，如果本周的加息沒讓你的銀行帳戶發生變化，不要感到驚訝。 |
When interest rates rise, savers should be among the main beneficiaries. A year ago, there was a debate going on as to whether banks would pass along interest rate increases to their customers. Interest rates on savings accounts, and especially checking accounts, had been at or close to zero, or really negative when you factor in ATM fees. We argued that competition would drive up the rates you could get on checking accounts. But that didn’t really play out. A year later, the average rate on a savings account is 0.11%, and checking accounts still mostly pay nothing. So don’t be surprised if this week’s interest rate hike doesn’t really impact your bank account either. |
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??????????????????????????????????? 借貸利率沒有出現大幅上漲。
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借貸 我們曾說，借款利率不會上漲太多，因為信用卡利息與美聯儲利率之間的利差已經很大了。按揭利率是跟長期利率掛鉤的，經濟好轉時會上漲，美聯儲加息時則未必。 我們的這個預測是正確的。信用卡利率和按揭利率有所上漲，但是不多。不過，信用卡利率跟美聯儲利率的聯系比我們預期得要大一些。有機構預計，明年信用卡借款利率將再次上漲，平將每個家庭要多支付18美元的利息。 按揭利率在這一年出現上漲，30年固定按揭的利息由一年的3.5%上漲至目前的4.1%，漲幅不算大，但這顯示出住宅貸款對加息的敏感度明顯比我們想像的要大。因此，我們預計，按揭利率在2017年多少也會上漲一些。 （財富中文網） 作者：Stephen Gandel 譯者：天逸 |
We said borrowing rates weren’t likely to go up all that much. The spread between credit card rates and the Fed’s interest rate was already quite large. And mortgage rates were tied to long-term interest rates, which tend to rise when the economy improves, not necessarily when the Fed increases interest rates. This was one prediction we got right. Credit card and mortgage rates did go up, but not much. Credit card rates did turn out to be more tied to interest rates than expected. And NerdWallet predicts that credit card lending rates will go up again in the next year, with the average house hold paying around $18 more in interest a year. Mortgage rates have jumped to to 4.1% on a 30-year fixed mortgage from 3.5% a year ago. That’s not much, but it does show that home loans are apparently more sensitive to interest rate hikes than we and others thought. So expect more increases, even if they’re modest, in 2017. |
