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索羅斯:今天的中國類似于金融危機時的美國

索羅斯:今天的中國類似于金融危機時的美國

Lucinda Shen 2016-04-25
索羅斯表示中國的經濟形勢“讓人不安地類似于美國2007年和2008年經濟危機時的情況,當時美國同樣是由信貸增長推動發展”。“銀行供應的大部分錢都被用于填補壞賬,讓虧損企業繼續存活下去。”

喬治?索羅斯針對中國經濟發出了又一次警告:中國的情況看起來像是2007年和2008年的美國。

2015年年中,中國經濟增速開始減緩,政府竭盡全力讓GDP的增速達到目標。今年3月,他們取得了初步成功,第一季度的GDP增長達到6.7%,超過了6.5%的全年增長目標。不過數據顯示,這次增長部分要歸功于大規模的新信貸刺激,中國人民銀行的數據表明,當月的刺激規模高達3,610億美元,遠遠超出預估中值的2,160億美元。

這是一個警報,即中國政府可能會冒著債務膨脹的危險提高增長速度。

據彭博社報道,最近,在紐約舉行的亞洲協會(Asia Society)會議上,索羅斯表示中國的經濟形勢“讓人不安地類似于美國2007年和2008年經濟危機時的情況,當時美國同樣是由信貸增長推動發展”。他說:“銀行供應的大部分錢都被用于填補壞賬,讓虧損企業繼續存活下去。”

今年早些時候,索羅斯認為世界第二大經濟體中國將會“硬著陸”,引起了中國政府的不滿。索羅斯還表示他正在做空亞洲貨幣,盡管他沒有明說是人民幣還是港幣。而中國媒體也對他的預測進行了回應。《人民日報》在1月份的文章中寫道:唱衰中國者“注定失敗”。

索羅斯在1992年做空英鎊,一日內凈賺10億美元,又在1997年做空泰銖,他的這些事跡廣為人知。索羅斯與其他許多投資者一樣,不看好中國的未來。這些人中還包括杰弗里?岡德拉奇、大衛?泰珀和比爾?阿克曼。(財富中文網)

譯者:嚴匡正

George Soros has issued another warning regarding China’s economy: It looks like America in 2007 and 2008.

Since the Chinese economic machine began slowing mid-2015, the communist-run government has been trying desperately to hit its domestic growth targets. The nation succeeded in March, when it reported that first-quarter GDP rose 6.7%—in line with its year-long target of 6.5%. But data suggests the expansion was partly driven by a massive surge of new credit which totaled $361 billion that month according to the People’s Bank of China—far exceeding the median forecast of $216 billion.

That’s a red flag that the Chinese government may be fueling growth at the risk of ballooning debt.

China’s economic situation “eerily resembles what happened during the financial crisis in the U.S. in 2007 and 2008, which was similarly fueled by credit growth,” Soros said during Wednesday’s Asia Society event in New York, according to Bloomberg. “Most of money that banks are supplying is needed to keep bad debts and loss-making enterprises alive,” he said.

Earlier this year, Soros drew the ire of the Chinese government after saying the world’s second-largest economy was headed for a “hard landing.” Soros also revealed that he was shorting Asian currencies, though he never specified either the Chinese Yuan or the Hong Kong Dollar. Chinese state media responded to his prediction with one of its own: Investors betting against China are “doomed to fail,” the People’s Daily wrote in January.

Soros is widely known for making $1 billion in a single day after shorting the British pound in 1992, and later shorting the Thai Baht in 1997. He joins a host of other investors who have professed bearish sentiments regarding China. That list includes Jeffrey Gundlach, David Tepper, and Bill Ackman.

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