隨著今年2月中國股市跌至四年半以來低點，海外資金正謹慎地向中資股票回流。趁著當前估值較低，海外資金挑選了一些中國經濟向消費驅動轉型的概念股。

外國投資者試探性地進入的板塊都與3月初公布的十三五規劃各項主題有關，包括城鎮化、消費、互聯網增長、綠色發展和創新。

2月12日以來，MSCI中國指數已上漲17%。基金追蹤機構EPFR Global的數據顯示，雖然外國投資者仍在凈賣出中國公司股票，但凈拋售規模已從此前4個月的平均每月賣出21億美元減至3月1日至25日的2.72億美元。

許多投資者都集中關注特定的“新經濟”行業，避開“舊經濟”板塊，雖然“新經濟”相關概念股只占中國股票市場的一小部分。

日興資產管理有限公司駐新加坡高級證券投資經理Tan Eng Teck指出：“中國經濟向消費和服務驅動的增長模式轉變過程可能會有些痛苦，其中股市遭受的打擊格外嚴重，因為70-80%的上市公司都高度依賴基建和投資驅動的經濟增長模式。”

“不過，另外那20-30%的上市公司正在成長，我們看好這些板塊，因為可以保持多年增長。”

中國政府的十三五規劃目標是，到2020年新增至少1千萬個城鎮就業機會，研發投資占GDP的比重達到2.5%，開發替代能源并減少碳排放，以及提高互聯網普及率。

Tan看好的板塊包括旅游、保險、環境和醫療保健。日興的中國股票基金和Shenton Greater China Fund持倉最多的中國股票有中國平安、騰訊控股和中國中藥。

英國投資機構M&G Investments駐倫敦的全球新興市場證券投資經理馬修?維特說：“M&G Investments把互聯網和消費增長主題合二為一，最近買入的股票包括一家在美國上市的在線旅行社。”

M&G Investments全球新興市場基金持有的前十大個股包括百度和中國移動。

不過，維特擔心有些“新經濟”個股估值過高。他認為，價值型投資者的機會在“相對乏味但被低估的領域”，比如部分包裝和塑料管廠商。

在他看來，銀行和大宗商品板塊存在價值陷阱。維特警告說，許多陷入困境的“舊經濟”公司其實應該破產，銀行卻還在向這些公司輸血。

Tan則擔心，鋼鐵和鋁等大宗商品板塊雖然估值已經非常低，但由于產能過剩，相關個股的價格可能進一步下跌。

霸菱資產管理亞太區投資總監方偉昌上個月在一份報告中寫道，霸菱也看好“中國公司在價值鏈體系上升過程中受益于消費崛起和配套科技需求增加的個股。”

方偉昌舉例說，霸菱投資了一家向香港、深圳和東莞供水的公用事業公司，就是因為看好中國人口進一步增長和環保標準提升。

霸菱還看好中國娛樂公司，預期中國的電影觀眾和國產電影數量都將上升。

方偉昌說：“近幾周股價波動相當劇烈，我們也借此機會重新評估了此前看好但認為股價過高的公司。”（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Global funds are cautiously venturing back into Chinese equities after prices collapsed to 4-1/2-year lows in February, taking advantage of cheaper valuations to buy stocks they believe will benefit from China’s shift to a consumption-led economy.

Foreign investors are tentatively buying in sectors linked to the main themes of the 13th Five-Year Plan released earlier this month, including urbanization, consumption, internet growth, green development and innovation.

The MSCI China index has gained 17% since Feb. 12 and while foreign investors are still net sellers the scale of net selling has shrunk to $272 million from March 1 to March 25 versus an average of $2.1 billion over the previous four months, according to EPFR Global data.

Most investors are focusing on specific “new economy” industries, which make up only a small proportion of the market, while avoiding those sectors linked to the “old economy.”

“China’s transition to a consumption and service-led economy is likely to be a bit painful, and it’s worse for the stock market because 70-80 percent of the market is highly dependent on the infrastructure and investment-led economy,” said Tan Eng Teck, senior portfolio manager at Nikko Asset Management in Singapore.

“But the remaining 20-30% is growing, and we like those sectors because they’re in a multi-year growth phase.”

Beijing’s five-year plan aims to create at least 10 million urban jobs, boost research and development investment to 2.5% of gross domestic product by 2020, develop alternative energy sources and reduce emissions, and expand internet penetration.

Tan’s prefered sectors include tourism, insurance, environment and healthcare. Among the biggest holdings in Nikko’s China equity fund and Shenton Greater China Fund are Ping An Insurance, internet firm Tencent and China Traditional Chinese Medicine Co..

M&G Investments combines the internet and consumption growth themes, with recent purchases including an online travel agency listed in the U.S., said Matthew Vaight, M&G portfolio manager for global emerging markets in London.

Internet firm Baidu and mobile operator China Unicom are among the top 10 holdings of M&G’s Global Emerging Markets fund.

However, Vaight cautions that some “new economy” stocks are overvalued, and sees opportunities for value investors in “relatively dull but under-appreciated areas of the market,” such as some packaging and plastic pipe companies.

Banks and commodity sectors are seen as value traps. Vaight warns that banks are keeping many struggling “old economy” companies going when they should not.

Tan cautions overcapacity in commodities sectors such as steel and aluminum means that prices, despite very low valuations, could yet fall further.

Barings Asset Management also favors “beneficiaries of rising consumption and technological outfitting as Chinese companies move up the value chain,” investment director William Fong said in a note last month.

For instance, Barings is investing in China’s population expansion and improving environmental standards through a utility company that supplies water to Hong Kong, Shenzen and Dongguan, he said.

Barings also likes Chinese entertainment companies, betting on increases in both the number of cinemagoers and locally produced films.

“With share price valuations having moved quite sharply in recent weeks, we have taken the opportunity to reassess companies we previously liked but where we felt the price was too high,” said Fong.