最近，中國人民銀行宣布，從3月1日起將存款準(zhǔn)備金率下調(diào)0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，大型中資銀行的存準(zhǔn)率隨之降到17%。這是一年來央行第五次下調(diào)存準(zhǔn)率。

幾天之后，中國全國人大會議開幕。這是決策層展現(xiàn)2016年政策意向的主要窗口。

今年的人大會議特別重要，原因是2016年是十三五規(guī)劃的開局之年，而此項(xiàng)規(guī)劃正是中國2020年之前的社會、政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展藍(lán)圖。同時(shí)，這也是中國國家主席習(xí)近平在明年中共十九大前對主要領(lǐng)導(dǎo)崗位進(jìn)行調(diào)整的重要時(shí)段。在這種情況下，決策者面臨的困難在于如何應(yīng)對不斷放緩的中國經(jīng)濟(jì)。

這本周，中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人將在全國人大會議上彰顯自己的信心。今年政府工作報(bào)告提出的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期目標(biāo)為6.5%-7%，這雖然標(biāo)志著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的逐步下降，但這樣的發(fā)展速度仍會讓世界上大多數(shù)國家羨慕不已，特別是在2016年。

為實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo)，中國政府打算雙管齊下，一是財(cái)政支出，二是下調(diào)利率帶來的低成本貸款。降準(zhǔn)就是第二種方法的具體體現(xiàn)。此舉和央行行長周小川此前傳遞出的信息一致，那就是中國仍有充分的“貨幣政策余地”來支持經(jīng)濟(jì)并避免下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這次的政府工作報(bào)告將財(cái)政赤字占GDP的比例從上年的2.3%提高到了3%。這個(gè)數(shù)字不像一些市場人士期望的那么高，但確實(shí)反映了政府通過擴(kuò)大赤字來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的意愿。

但這些保障措施很難讓投資者放寬心。中國政府在財(cái)政和貨幣政策方面確實(shí)仍有能量繼續(xù)促進(jìn)增長。但市場要的并不是這個(gè)，或者說，不光是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。相反，市場希望看到的是更健康的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式。它希望看到政府就此釋放出清晰的信號，從而表明政府正在恰當(dāng)?shù)匕奄Y源用于解決中國的高額負(fù)債問題（估計(jì)占GDP的240%），并推動經(jīng)濟(jì)從重工業(yè)向服務(wù)和消費(fèi)轉(zhuǎn)型。

投資者將透過政府的經(jīng)濟(jì)總體目標(biāo)看實(shí)質(zhì)。降準(zhǔn)之后，銀行有了更多可用資金，中國政府則正在鼓勵前者將這些新增資金從日漸式微的重工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向附加值更高的行業(yè)。通過擴(kuò)大養(yǎng)老和醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)覆蓋面、以及相關(guān)的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策，政府用于支持消費(fèi)、創(chuàng)新和環(huán)保的財(cái)政支出同樣出現(xiàn)了迅猛增長。

這方面已經(jīng)有了實(shí)質(zhì)性進(jìn)展。舉例來說，中國財(cái)政部最近公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2015年政府的社保和福利總支出比2014年增長了17%。在主要城市出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重空氣污染的情況下，政府在節(jié)能環(huán)保等關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域的支出也同比上升了26%。

中國政府面臨的關(guān)鍵挑戰(zhàn)在于，如何防止銀行將新增可貸資金投入到那些瀕臨倒閉的企業(yè)和陷入停滯的項(xiàng)目中去。因?yàn)檫@只會增加系統(tǒng)壞賬，從而導(dǎo)致中國未來的調(diào)整更加艱難。全國人大會議將彰顯出政府的抱負(fù)，市場則會緊盯實(shí)際信號，以判斷政府是否會在今年采取后續(xù)行動。

尼古拉斯?康索納利是歐亞集團(tuán)亞洲部主任。

譯者：Charlie

校對：詹妮

Recently, Beijing cut banks’ cushion money, calling for a 50 basis point reduction to reserve requirement ratios (RRRs). That’s down to 17%, the fifth such cut over the past year.

The move comes just days ahead of the National People’s Congress (NPC), which kicked off over the weekend. The event, Beijing’s annual legislative session, is a major opportunity for China’s leadership to showcase its policy intentions for 2016.

This year’s NPC is especially significant: It is both the year for the unveiling of China’s large-scale plan designed to guide the country’s social, political and economic development through the second half of this decade — the 13th Five Year plan (13FYP). It is also the second-to-last major opportunity for China’s President Xi Jinping to place allies in key government posts ahead of an upcoming transition in the Communist Party next year. The difficulty facing Xi, in the backdrop of the political calendar, is the slowing Chinese economy.

China’s leaders will put on an outward show of confidence at the NPC thesetwo weeks. In its work report for the year, the government said the economy would grow in the 6.5% to 7% range this year — a number that would mark a gradual slowdown for China, but a rate enviable in most of the rest of the world. Particularly in 2016.

The leadership intends to use both government spending and cheaper lending through lower interest rates to get there, as the reserve ratio cut this week indicates. The cut was consistent with a message delivered by People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan last week — that China still has plenty of “monetary policy space” to support the economy and avoid downside risks. The government also set a wider deficit target in its work report – at 3% of GDP, up from 2.3% last year. This number isn’t as high as some in the markets hoped — but does suggest willingness to use deficit spending to boost the economy.

But investors will find little solace in these assurances. Beijing does still have fiscal and monetary firepower to drive growth. But the market is not looking for growth. Or not for growth alone. Instead, it is looking for healthier growth – which would come via clear signs that the Chinese government is channeling its resources appropriately to tackle China’s massive debt burden (estimated at 240% of GDP) and facilitate an adjustment from heavy industry into services and consumption.

Investors would do well to scratch beneath the surface of the headline targets. Beijing is encouraging banks, which now have more capital to lend since the reserve requirement cut, to channel new credit away from dying heavy manufacturing industries and into higher-value added sectors. The government is also sharply increasing fiscal spending to support consumption (by bolstering pensions and healthcare access), innovation (through industrial policy), and environmental protection.

Real progress is already being made: according to recent numbers from China’s finance ministry, the government’s overall expenditure on social security and welfare increased by 17% in 2015 from 2014, for example. And on energy saving and environmental protection—crucial issues for the Chinese leadership today in the face of disastrous air pollution in major cities—government spending increased by 26% last year.

The key challenge for Beijing is to prevent banks from channeling their newfound firepower into failing companies and stagnant projects. That would only extend the level of bad debt in the system, setting China up for an even more painful adjustment down the line. While the NPC will showcase the government’s aspirations, markets will be looking for real signs of follow-through this year.

Nicholas Consonery is director of Asia at Eurasia Group.